FOREX PRO WEEKLY, February 26-02, 2018

[Stag]

Flat scenario

It is a likely scenario at time of writing... we should see smaller and smaller overlapping waves breaching 1.2206 one or two times...

My adjusted counting shows wave 5 may have bottomed at 1.2198 in the Euro, but it looks like this small bounce is only a fourth wave within a still unfolding wave 5. I want to see prices retrace at least towards 1.2255 to give that more serious consideration.

Keep focus on lower as long as 1.2277 continues as overhead resistance.

 

[Sive Morten]

Good morning,

So, guys our bearish trades as on GBP as on EUR are mostly done, as markets stand just few pips above major targets. As we've discussed recently - here is very suitable moment for searching bullish reversal patterns which could start to form today-tomorrow.

Meantime, while we're waiting for that, let's take a look at shorter setups on other currencies. Today kiwi dollar attracts my attention. On daily chart market is coming to OP target and Agreement with major 3/8 support. Right now price stands just 30 pips above it:

On 4-hour chart we have smaller AB-CD pattern but with the same OP. CD leg is a perfect thrust down. Thus, idea is simple - wait for completion both OP's first and for DiNapoli DRPO "Buy" or B&B "Sell" second.

Also, if market will not take out previous lows, this could be "222" Buy pattern as well....

 

[Stag]

My adjusted counting shows wave 5 may have bottomed at 1.2198 in the Euro, but it looks like this small bounce is only a fourth wave within a still unfolding wave 5. I want to see prices retrace at least towards 1.2255 to give that more serious consideration.

Keep focus on lower as long as 1.2277 continues as overhead resistance.

The overlapping wave structure from 1.2255 signals the five-wave decline from 1.2556 is at or near an end.

If the Euro will stage a rally attempt starting from here, breaking decisively above 1.2255 would add credence to the idea five wave decline was over at 1.2183 and wave 1 of a new rally is underway. Followed by other than a corrective three wave setback the Euro should continue to strenghten.

If it is a corrective recovery it would end after three waves and well below 1.2255. It would suggest a turn lower and it would offer another bearish opportunity towards new lows.

 

[Sive Morten]

The overlapping wave structure from 1.2255 signals the five-wave decline from 1.2556 is at or near an end.

If the Euro will stage a rally attempt starting from here, breaking decisively above 1.2255 would add credence to the idea five wave decline was over at 1.2183 and wave 1 of a new rally is underway.

Hi Stag, your view brings some confidence on our Double Top "failure" potential setup. By DiNapoli target estimation it should start somewhere around 1.2170 area... Whether 13 pips difference to yours 1.2183 could significantly impact your anaysis?

 

[Stag]

Hi Stag, your view brings some confidence on our Double Top "failure" potential setup. By DiNapoli target estimation it should start somewhere around 1.2170 area... Whether 13 pips difference to yours 1.2183 could significantly impact your anaysis?

No, it would remain unchanged due to the overlapping wave structure. It would change if an accelerating fall would start from the current level.

To increase confidence in an immediate bullish view we need to see an impulsive rise through 1.2213 and on toward 1.2255 against current low at 1.2179.

 

[Venelin]

Hi Sive and all, after euro hitting 38,2%, my Weekly DRPO LAL sell is invalid. Now if euro has started upward movement and without breaking 1.2153- i.e expanded flat completed there, the target for wave 5=1 is at 1.2566. Also Weekly close above 1.2247 would give a Stop Grabber. The trick is Italian elections risk event on Sunday. Good luck

 

[Sive Morten]

Also Weekly close above 1.2247 would give a Stop Grabber.

Hi Venelin. Cool, very valuable insight. Thanks. This could specify the target of our "Ooops!" setup on daily...

To increase confidence in an immediate bullish view we need to see an impulsive rise through 1.2213 and on toward 1.2255 against current low at 1.2179.

Spot on, buddy. Good work!

 

[Sive Morten]

Morning, guys.

So, our "Oops!" Setup on daily has started. Upside reversal from K-area and Agreement right under DT neckline was fast and took the shape of reversal session. Right now it is difficult to talk about targets, most probable it will be some LPO on hourly chart. But, as Venelin said - we could get grabber on weekly chart and it will mean that we could keep trading up to previous tops... We just need to wait for week close price today.

Meantime, whatever target will be, now we need to think about entry. On 4-hour chart we have clear bullish divergence, price has reached minor 5/8 Fib level:

So, as retracement has started - we could use it for taking long position. IMO, retracement should not be too deep, either to nearest Fib level or K-area... Also, market has uncompleted XOP (not shown here) at 1.2295, so, retracement could start from a bit higher level, when XOP will be reached. But, levels's structure will be the same:

 

[FreddyFX]

For the moment I am expecting price first to get down to the 50% retracement of the move up yesterday, around 1.22265

 

[Lolly Tripathy]

For the moment I am expecting price first to get down to the 50% retracement of the move up yesterday, around 1.22265

That's also daily pivot and a long term trend line