FOREX PRO Weekly February 27- March 02, 2012

Triantus Shango

Sergeant Major
Messages
1,372
not years. 300 pips in a month is nothing. look at some of those monthly candles. sometimes the market moves more than 10 big figures in 1 month (i.e. on 2008.10.01, open = 1.4114 and close = 1.2731, so since 1.41 is a big figure, 1.40 is the next big figure, and so on, so 1.31 is 10 big figures lower, and 1.27 is thus 15 big figures lower).

and am not saying it will close at 3580/3600 today. that would be impossible without some major financial earthquake, like China, India, and all EM nations announcing they are selling all their dollars and shift exclusively into euro and cable for reserve currencies. well if that happened probably euro would rocket to 2.0 or more ;).

hey Triantus, i'm new and still learning. u are saying that TP 3580/3600 from current day close? even with euro rally, TP at 3580/3600 will be a long term trend which will take years to form since we are looking at monthly chart? please correct me if my understanding is wrong. Appreciate your guidance. Many thanks!
 
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Triantus Shango

Sergeant Major
Messages
1,372
sive, quick question: i was looking at your candlesticks summary and for marubozu it says that it's a continuation pattern. and right now, on weekly SPOT i have 2 marubozus side by side: 1st is up, 2nd one is down. assuming market closes at 3209 the 2 candles will be identical in size, 2 different directions though.

question: can we consider this a continuation pattern of the rally? or does the 2nd marubozu (down) cancel the 1st one (up), and invalidate the rally and does not signify continuation but rather reversal?
 

cheater

Private, 1st Class
Messages
47
not years. 300 pips in a month is nothing. look at some of those monthly candles. sometimes the market moves more than 10 big figures in 1 month (i.e. on 2008.10.01, open = 1.4114 and close = 1.2731, so since 1.41 is a big figure, 1.40 is the next big figure, and so on, so 1.31 is 10 big figures lower, and 1.27 is thus 15 big figures lower).

and am not saying it will close at 3580/3600 today. that would be impossible without some major financial earthquake, like China, India, and all EM nations announcing they are selling all their dollars and shift exclusively into euro and cable for reserve currencies. well if that happened probably euro would rocket to 2.0 or more ;).
yeah i understand, but still, the opportunity cost of placing the position for over a month is probably worth more than 300 pips and open to high risks of financial earthquake as u said. Thanks for clearing up my understanding :)
 

papao

Private, 1st Class
Messages
74
one more thing... couldn't this happen --> LTRO = inflation up? if inflation up, then euro bullish. yes?
hi triantus, i was also thinking about the LTRO... but my idea is quite different. LTRO -> huge amount of euro (the bce is printing money) -> more supply of euro -> price of euro goes down (in these days, may be because banks used this fresh money also for buying dollars?).
PS: while inflation might push the central bank to raise rates, in long term inflation might depreciate the currency... :)
 
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