FOREX PRO Weekly January 02-06, 2012

RahmanSL

Major
Messages
2,534
Ok, I don't know what happened but the EUR/USD seems to have split somewhat from movement of Gold.
So I guess it's now back to technical.
 

georgeta

Sergeant
Messages
157
I wonder if anyone could enter this sell off!
I can see a butterfly on M15, or is it just my imagination? Anyway, I dont think someone can keep a short position when market reversed up so brutally...
 

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Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
12,970
I wonder if anyone could enter this sell off!
I can see a butterfly on M15, or is it just my imagination? Anyway, I dont think someone can keep a short position when market reversed up so brutally...
Hi Georgeta,
nice to hear you (if I can say it like this :)
Yes, this is nice butterfly, also you can find another one right before plunge.
 

georgeta

Sergeant
Messages
157
Hi Georgeta,
nice to hear you (if I can say it like this :)
Yes, this is nice butterfly, also you can find another one right before plunge.
It is always my pleasure to follow your threads Mr. Morten! I did not have much time lately, I am now vice-president of something ;) (nothing to do with finance). I even arrange my personal finance according to your analysis now.
Yes, I see the second butterfly but I dont think I could enter that:
a. 61.8 resistance of the last swing down was already touched so there was no solid resistance above butterfly
b. right wing it is a spike right to 1.27 extension so I expected it to go up further
c. the price was above weekly pivot
So, no guts, no glory!
I am waiting for the B&B now...
 

Marketjoy Trader

Private, 1st Class
Messages
81
Since the beginning of Sept 2011, i have been unable to get Sive.s mail directly to my box. So i have to go back everytime to the mail of Sept 9,2010 to get update. can somebody at FPA help me to rectify this. I will be much grateful if this can be rectify since i have a blackberry email alert and i believe life will be a lot more easier for me. regards.
 

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
12,970
Since the beginning of Sept 2011, i have been unable to get Sive.s mail directly to my box. So i have to go back everytime to the mail of Sept 9,2010 to get update. can somebody at FPA help me to rectify this. I will be much grateful if this can be rectify since i have a blackberry email alert and i believe life will be a lot more easier for me. regards.
Hi Ayoayo,
I've resent your problem to FPA support. If they will be able to fix it - they will do this.
 

RahmanSL

Major
Messages
2,534
If your e-mail is from yahoo, then you will get such problems. The simple solution is to switch to a gmail.com e-mail as it's free too.
 

Triantus Shango

Sergeant Major
Messages
1,372
Hi Triantus,
if you let me to add just couple of words.
At MHO it hardly could be treated as H&S due to lack of harmony between shoulders. Besides, such strong plunge from let's say "expected" area shift odds to new lows probably. Also my experience tells that H&S at 4-hour and hourly time frame usually fail precisely by such action as you can see now - acceleration of right shoulder.
sive, linxtips, zakiaziz

yes, well... i thought that the bottom at 2860 (just left of yesterday's drop back to 2900) was the head. but now with the reversal down again, it does look odd and not an inverse H&S, unless perhaps market goes back up and we'll have a really fat head?
 

zakiaziz

Private
Messages
23
guys.. i dont know if i am right or not about this.. but for me... H1 look like H&S for me.. left shoulder and head has been accomplish.. maybe its time for right shoulder.. but i dont know.. just wait for sive to make the analysis..
 

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
12,970
EUR/USD Daily Update, Thu 05, January, 2012

Good morning,
Yesterday market has confirmed our assumption by solid plunge down, but know is such kind of situation when it is a bit late to enter short, while a bit early to enter long. All that we can do know is to wait a bit.

On daily time frame market probably will create new low, but how deep it will be is very difficult to predict. It could reach just 1.2830-1.2850 area or it could proceed lower to 1.2770 to 1.618 extension of current retracement and create another AB-CD pattern.

On 4-hour time frame trend is bearish, one pattern that we can get here is Double bottom. As you remember, for double bottoms it is very common when second bottom stands slightly lower than the first one and shows some kind of W&R of it.

On hourly time frame there is only single think that could be interesting for us - negative dynamic pressure, that suggests some downward continuation.

So, as a conclusion we might say that downward move should continue, but how deep it will be - I don't know yet. That's why we have to watch closely just to not skip triggering bullish pattern. It does not mean that we have to catch buy right at low - we will have enough time to enter at retracement after it will be completed, it just means that we have to recognize it.
 

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