Sive Morten
Special Consultant to the FPA
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Forex FOREX PRO WEEKLY, January 06 - 10, 2020
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Sive Morten
Special Consultant to the FPA
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Morning guys,
Let's keep going with our EUR bullish scenario. Currently it seems that EUR is forming pennant right under major resistance area which is potentially bullish sign. Previously we've set two entry points for taking long position. Actually, the scenario that we talked about in our weekly report - is DiNapoli Minesweeper "A" technique.
Today we consider the next part which is Minesweeper "B" for those who have missed both chances to buy EUR.
First we have to be sure that daily trend is still bullish by MACD - indeed. And it will be bullish till ~ 1.1165 area. It means that we could fade current downside action on intraday charts against daily trend. Second condition that we already have- we need to get upside response from one of the daily Fib levels. As you can see - market jumped up from 1.1140:
On 4H chart we see that this is also K-support and market has formed the pattern - "morning star", or a kind of reverse H&S. Bounce is nice:
What we did yesterday: we said that we could buy at 3/8 retracement of this upside bounce, which is Minesweeper "A" technique. Now we could consider the "B" variant as well. It suggests buying not at single Fib level, but at K-support, if all other conditions hold. Take a look - now we have EUR at K-support and Agreement. Additionally we have "222' Buy. Thus, this is another chance to take long position by using DiNapoli Minesweeper "B" entry technique:
Let's keep going with our EUR bullish scenario. Currently it seems that EUR is forming pennant right under major resistance area which is potentially bullish sign. Previously we've set two entry points for taking long position. Actually, the scenario that we talked about in our weekly report - is DiNapoli Minesweeper "A" technique.
Today we consider the next part which is Minesweeper "B" for those who have missed both chances to buy EUR.
First we have to be sure that daily trend is still bullish by MACD - indeed. And it will be bullish till ~ 1.1165 area. It means that we could fade current downside action on intraday charts against daily trend. Second condition that we already have- we need to get upside response from one of the daily Fib levels. As you can see - market jumped up from 1.1140:
On 4H chart we see that this is also K-support and market has formed the pattern - "morning star", or a kind of reverse H&S. Bounce is nice:
What we did yesterday: we said that we could buy at 3/8 retracement of this upside bounce, which is Minesweeper "A" technique. Now we could consider the "B" variant as well. It suggests buying not at single Fib level, but at K-support, if all other conditions hold. Take a look - now we have EUR at K-support and Agreement. Additionally we have "222' Buy. Thus, this is another chance to take long position by using DiNapoli Minesweeper "B" entry technique:
Lolly Tripathy
Sergeant Major
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Thank you so much dear sive sir.. Wish you a very happy prosperous and blessed new year.. God fulfil all of your dreams..
Venelin
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Sive, Happy New 2020! May you have lots of health!
Sive Morten
Special Consultant to the FPA
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Morning guys,
It is too much politics on the markets right now. We've discussed well Minesweeper entry technique but it didn't help us as daily bullish context is broken by poor Germany factory orders data and new spiral of escalation on Middle East. As a result, it is more demand for USD appears.
Now, on daily chart market still stands above 1.1140 area and even has formed bullish grabber. But this downside drop is not natural in a chain of upside swings - it should not be there. This makes us expect deeper downward action, at least to 1.1080-1.11 K-support area:
Here is pennant pattern that we've talked about yesterday. Market now stands near its bottom and challenge could follow soon:
This, in turn, makes us think about this AB-CD pattern here:
That's being said, as daily trend has turned bearish and short-term upside context is broken, market erases recent strong upside swings and breaks intraday supports, showing too deep retracement compares to what should happen - we do not see good conditions for long entry here.
It is too much politics on the markets right now. We've discussed well Minesweeper entry technique but it didn't help us as daily bullish context is broken by poor Germany factory orders data and new spiral of escalation on Middle East. As a result, it is more demand for USD appears.
Now, on daily chart market still stands above 1.1140 area and even has formed bullish grabber. But this downside drop is not natural in a chain of upside swings - it should not be there. This makes us expect deeper downward action, at least to 1.1080-1.11 K-support area:
Here is pennant pattern that we've talked about yesterday. Market now stands near its bottom and challenge could follow soon:
This, in turn, makes us think about this AB-CD pattern here:
That's being said, as daily trend has turned bearish and short-term upside context is broken, market erases recent strong upside swings and breaks intraday supports, showing too deep retracement compares to what should happen - we do not see good conditions for long entry here.
Hi guys, I made just a quick update on my COT analysis, this postponed releases really mess up my routines.
GOLD:
Non-Commerical trades were adding to their Long positions, and took off some Shorts, which led to an overall increase in Net Long positions.
DXY:
Not many changes on the Long side of DXY positions, just a small increase, while on the other hand, Non-Commercial traders added a bit more to the Short positions which led to a small decrease in Net Long positions.
EUR:
While the ratio between Longs and Shorts is remaining the same for several weeks now, we can see some changes to Long and Short positions. The increase in Shorts was a little bit greater than in Shorts which led to a small increase in Net Short Positions.
GBP:
Non-Commercial traders decreased both their Long and Short positions. The decrease in Shorts was greater. Net positions are now Net Long since the report of December 24th.
JPY:
Non-Commercial traders decreased their Long positions in the last two reports, Shorts are still around 40 thousand. Net Longs positions have also been decreasing.
GOLD:
Non-Commerical trades were adding to their Long positions, and took off some Shorts, which led to an overall increase in Net Long positions.
DXY:
Not many changes on the Long side of DXY positions, just a small increase, while on the other hand, Non-Commercial traders added a bit more to the Short positions which led to a small decrease in Net Long positions.
EUR:
While the ratio between Longs and Shorts is remaining the same for several weeks now, we can see some changes to Long and Short positions. The increase in Shorts was a little bit greater than in Shorts which led to a small increase in Net Short Positions.
GBP:
Non-Commercial traders decreased both their Long and Short positions. The decrease in Shorts was greater. Net positions are now Net Long since the report of December 24th.
JPY:
Non-Commercial traders decreased their Long positions in the last two reports, Shorts are still around 40 thousand. Net Longs positions have also been decreasing.
Sive Morten
Special Consultant to the FPA
- Messages
- 18,630
Morning everybody,
As we've mentioned previously - the short-term bullish context is broken and we are watching for deeper downside action. Right now 1.1080-1.11 K-support area is our particular interest. Here we plan to make scalp Buy trade as chances on 3/8 upside bounce out from the K-area at the first touch are significant. MPS1 is also stand around:
On 4H chart we keep an eye on the same AB-CD pattern which is not completed yet and which is create Agreement with daily K-area. Now price is showing respect to WPS1 by minor reaction:
On 1H chart we have another one, smaller AB-CD pattern with approx. the same target. Today we have to watch for two things. First is - reaching of 1.1090 level, second - watching for bullish reversal pattern, which should be either butterfly, or reverse H&S probably. Once we will get them, it is possible to make attempt to go long with ~ 1.1115 target, which give approx. 50 pips upside potential. Maybe EUR could go higher then. Currently it is impossible to say.
As we've mentioned previously - the short-term bullish context is broken and we are watching for deeper downside action. Right now 1.1080-1.11 K-support area is our particular interest. Here we plan to make scalp Buy trade as chances on 3/8 upside bounce out from the K-area at the first touch are significant. MPS1 is also stand around:
On 4H chart we keep an eye on the same AB-CD pattern which is not completed yet and which is create Agreement with daily K-area. Now price is showing respect to WPS1 by minor reaction:
On 1H chart we have another one, smaller AB-CD pattern with approx. the same target. Today we have to watch for two things. First is - reaching of 1.1090 level, second - watching for bullish reversal pattern, which should be either butterfly, or reverse H&S probably. Once we will get them, it is possible to make attempt to go long with ~ 1.1115 target, which give approx. 50 pips upside potential. Maybe EUR could go higher then. Currently it is impossible to say.
M Asia Trade
Recruit
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Sir Sive is it a good time to trade-in forex because the stock market all around the world is down on the escalating US-IRAN tensions. And more aggression from both countries can't be denied. And with that in mind, the stock markets may remain on the back foot for some time.
Sive Morten
Special Consultant to the FPA
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- 18,630
Morning guys,
Today is a small update as we do not have any activity around major level. As we've suggested yesterday - EUR has to hit 1.1090 area because this is important intraday target and reach daily K-support. This has happened. Yesterday has become "indecision" session a takes a doji shape here, on daily, which makes overall situation a bit tricky.
K-support per se is vital here. It is strong level and normally, it should hold any market if it is bullish. Breaking of this area could lead to deeper downside action:
On 4H chart our AB=CD is completed, but the problem in reaction. Market has not formed any clear bullish pattern, and no strong response on support. It just stands around it:
The same is on 1H chart - no reverse H&S, no butterfly has been formed there. Currently we see some signs of bearish dynamic pressure as well:
In fact we could make two decisions. First is - decrease position size and try to go long, based on on 4H "222" buy with stop below daily K-area (~ 40 pips). Do nothing and wait clarity, because this type of reaction keeps door open for downside continuation as well. This is something to think about today...
Today is a small update as we do not have any activity around major level. As we've suggested yesterday - EUR has to hit 1.1090 area because this is important intraday target and reach daily K-support. This has happened. Yesterday has become "indecision" session a takes a doji shape here, on daily, which makes overall situation a bit tricky.
K-support per se is vital here. It is strong level and normally, it should hold any market if it is bullish. Breaking of this area could lead to deeper downside action:
On 4H chart our AB=CD is completed, but the problem in reaction. Market has not formed any clear bullish pattern, and no strong response on support. It just stands around it:
The same is on 1H chart - no reverse H&S, no butterfly has been formed there. Currently we see some signs of bearish dynamic pressure as well:
In fact we could make two decisions. First is - decrease position size and try to go long, based on on 4H "222" buy with stop below daily K-area (~ 40 pips). Do nothing and wait clarity, because this type of reaction keeps door open for downside continuation as well. This is something to think about today...
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