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FOREX PRO WEEKLY January 16-20, 2012

Discussion in 'Sive Morten- Currencies, Gold, Bitcoin Daily Video' started by Sive Morten, Jan 14, 2012.

  1. BeeKay8

    BeeKay8 Sergeant

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    Sive,

    I was just wondering if the price action on the H4 would classify as a bearish butterfly pattern? If so, I think right now at 1.286x is worth a short because if it is a bearish butterfly pattern, fib extension 161.8 from X-A is at 1.287x.

    If this is a bearish butterfly pattern, a SL 20-30 pips above 161.8 extension would be a good R:R......

    EDIT: Also note that 1H Stoch and MACD are beginning to cross to the downside. Of course, it may just touch and go back up. But it can be an indicator that bulls on 1H TF are slowing down? I would prefer if the MACD showed a steeper angle down. Right now it looks pretty flat. Using MACD and Stoch combination, if MACD does turn bearish for 1H and stoch does cross to the downside, I think it could be a good indicator of a short.
     
    #201 BeeKay8, Jan 18, 2012
    Last edited: Jan 18, 2012
  2. RahmanSL

    RahmanSL Major

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    Yes, on H1 it does indicate a retracement downwards...but these few days, I really don't know how much to trust these indicator charts as market seems to be in confusion probably as the results of good & bad news coming out all over the EZ and the US.

    I think I will wait for Sive's daily analysis and go from there...but at the moment, it does seems to be in reversal.
     
  3. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    EUR/USD Daily Update, Thu 19, January 2012

    Good morning,
    yesterday market has closed above pivot resistance1 but still not broken upper border of channel. Trend is bullish.
    Based on daily time frame we have bullish context and have no reasons to enter short. Today we have to be focused on potential breakout or downward pullback to possible, let's call it as "diamond" pattern, that I've tried to draw...

    4-hour trend is strongly bullish, but market has hit our target of AB=CD pattern, that we've specified yesterday and 1.2855 Fib resistance. Some retracement is possible. Acceptable levels, from bulls' standpoint are nearest Fib support+pivot resistance 1.2826 and next K-support 1.2792-1.2794. Breakout of this level to the downside should worry bulls, because if market has real upward strength - it should not retrace too deep. Besides, trend will remain bullish only till that area. If move deeper will be the case, then better sit on the hands for getting more clarification, what will happen next.

    hourly chart shows that market also has accomplished our Butterfly (or better to call it Crab) "Sell" pattern - this is another reason to wait for some pullback. Although context for trading is bullish, we are at solid resistance and do not want to enter right now.

    So, what's the conclusion?
    1. Context for trading is bullish.
    2.Wait pullback to either 1.2855 or 1.2792-1.2794 for enter long according to your entry technique
    3. If market will break 1.2790 to downside - it will lead to shifting 4-hour and hourly time frame trends to bearish side. This will be the sign of deeper move down. If market really has some upward power it should not show this breakout, because it is not at overbought and all trends are bullish (except hourly) now.
    4. Keep an eye on hourly chart - if you will get bullish dynamic pressure (i.e. price will creep higher, while MACD will show bear trend), this could be the sign of possible explosive upward continuation.
     

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  4. tunji wahab

    tunji wahab Private

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    Hi Sive,
    thanks once again for your daily analysis of inestimable value. pls my own MACD does not come with that blue and red lines on your chart, just the red line. how do i get the one with the two lines? thanks
     
  5. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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  6. RahmanSL

    RahmanSL Major

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    Thanks for the daily confirmation Sive.

    That H1 seems frozen in time and reluctant to confirm market movements. Looks like it might be a long wait as there is pretty strong resistance at the 1.2850 areas 1.2870 areas.

    ===================

    Seems weird that a simple shorter or longer bar on the H1 MACD changes everything!
     
  7. BeeKay8

    BeeKay8 Sergeant

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    Too early to say bullish dynamic pressure is cancelled or am I just really impatient?

    Not breaking the high 1.2877
     
  8. arobi

    arobi Recruit

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    Thank you Sive for the usual thoughtfull analysis.
    Is it correct to say H4 has a potential of either B&B buy or DPRO Sell?
    First fib support at 1.2813, second at 1.2793 for B&B.
     
  9. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    Well, probably it will be better to not rely on this possibility too much. Mostly because thrust was interrupted by meaningful retracement in the middle. Also is, because the second part of it mostly consists of single long bar. This is not impressive context for DRPO or B&B. But this is my HO. It does not mean that it will not work...
     
  10. RahmanSL

    RahmanSL Major

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    Market has hit the 1.2900 levels. Are we due for retracement yet?
     

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