FOREX PRO Weekly, January 17-21, 2011

GBP/USD update

Hi Sive,

of course, USD/CHF have nice risk/reward ratio, and we saw this RRT that gives us the signal for long, you mentioned in your well thought-out analysis!

Haven't possible H&S in GBP/USD the same attractiveness for potential retracement like USD/CHF?

nice day,
Erich
 

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Eurusd

Hello Sive, Am I correct in seeing a RRT on the weekly time frame of the EURUSD? If so, this would put the next logical mid-term target at or above 1.4280 and change the outlook to bullish - is that correct? Could this plus a weekly bullish engulfing bar indicate a reversal at this point?
 
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Hello Sive, Am I correct in seeing a RRT on the weekly time frame of the EURUSD? If so, this would put the next logical mid-term target at or above 1.4280 and change the outlook to bullish - is that correct?

Hello,

I'm far from being the authority to say that, but I think Sive mentioned in a video that such case does not qualify for railroad tracks, because it did not clear any previous lows and is therefore considered normal price action.

Besides that it seems USD is currently fundamentaly stronger, the recovery will start sooner in USA and Por, Ita, Spa bonds are just temporary solution...
 
Hello Sive, Am I correct in seeing a RRT on the weekly time frame of the EURUSD? If so, this would put the next logical mid-term target at or above 1.4280 and change the outlook to bullish - is that correct? Could this plus a weekly bullish engulfing bar indicate a reversal at this point?

Hello,

I'm far from being the authority to say that, but I think Sive mentioned in a video that such case does not qualify for railroad tracks, because it did not clear any previous lows and is therefore considered normal price action.

Besides that it seems USD is currently fundamentaly stronger, the recovery will start sooner in USA and Por, Ita, Spa bonds are just temporary solution...

Yes, we've talked about it in video. Baletnik is right - this is not RRT pattern.
Look, the nature of RRT is a rejection of some price level that is unnatural for current market - and market totally rejects it.
On EUR this is not an unnormal price, because the same level was just a month ago.
 
EUR/USD Daily Update, Wed 19, January 2011

Hello, friends
Let's shift to EUR again.
In general recent price action was very bullish. Market has passed through daily Confluence resistance, jumped up from weekly pivot and creeps currently with daily level of overbought - not even bounce.
So, from the one point of view it means that currently not the time for establishing any Buy&Hold Longs - market is overbought now. From the other side - market can go up more a bit.

Next Daily Fib resistance is 1.3723 - it's far above. But 1.3581 is weekly and monthly pivot resistance 1. I think that this level could be the next nearest target for current week, particularly if we surplus the fact of overbought condition.

on 4-hour chart we can see that 0.618 target is 1.3541 - very close to it, 100% expansion makes Agreement with 1.3723 Fib resistance.
So, the coclusion as follows - may be market could reach 1.3541-1.3581 area, but further up move will be under question due to resistance and overbought.
 

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EUR/USD Daily Update, Thu 20, January 2011

Hello, everybody

First of all, 1.3570-1.3580 area today is crucial for any Bullish positions. If you hold some - then be careful if market will reach it. This is level of daily overbought and weekly+monthly pivots resistance 1.

Meantime on 4-hour chart we see some bearish signs - bearish divergence and hiting 1.27 expansion from previous retracement down. Also I can't exclude probability that market is forming 3-drive Sell pattern. And now it in retarcement after second drive up.

Hourly chart shows excellent MACDP failure pattern, that has a target, I suppose around 1.3370 that is also a 4-hour confluence support. Furthermore, if market will find support here and reestablish up move - then it gives the perfect third drive around 1.3580.

I think that "Sell" scalp trade with target at 1.3370 has nice probability of success today.
 

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gbpusd move

Dear Sive,

Has been following your analysis and trade plans, very good stuff! thank you for your effort!
About the gbpusd analysis you previously made, are you still holding the same conclusion that gbpusd will drop to 1.5650-1.5700 level? What is the main reason for it to go up to 1.6000 level before free falling? Does it mean the sellers wanna kill more buyers and aim a even lower target? What do you think is the possibility if it will drop even further to 61.8% support on the weekly chart as attached?
attachment.php

Also I'm wondering if you'll also post your analysis about cross pairs such as eurjpy and gbpjpy? Thank you.

Cheers,
Shawn
 

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Dear Sive,

Has been following your analysis and trade plans, very good stuff! thank you for your effort!
About the gbpusd analysis you previously made, are you still holding the same conclusion that gbpusd will drop to 1.5650-1.5700 level? What is the main reason for it to go up to 1.6000 level before free falling? Does it mean the sellers wanna kill more buyers and aim a even lower target? What do you think is the possibility if it will drop even further to 61.8% support on the weekly chart as attached?
Also I'm wondering if you'll also post your analysis about cross pairs such as eurjpy and gbpjpy? Thank you.

Cheers,
Shawn

Shawn,
1.5950-1.60 area is important twofold. First, if market will show weakness here and Sell pattern on daily time frame - it may trigger weekly H&S pattern.
Second, I've taked about this area, because this was overbought area and it has some intraday targets there. Now BTW, market has a nice context for DRPO "Sell" on daily time frame.
That's why I didn't not talk about monthly chart and weekly on previous week. We need some strong patterns to be triggered previously. If weekly H&S will come to life - it can trigger monthly Bearish engulfing.
 
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