FOREX PRO Weekly January 30-February 03, 2012

[asif faryad]

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[BeeKay8]

Sive, do you always use the 0.786 fib level for all timeframes or just the monthly? I thought I read in the Dinapoli book that he only uses 38.2, 61.8, 100, and 161.8?

Thanks Sive!

 

[Sive Morten]

What nonsense is this??? I hope FPA can prevent spammers and scammers from distracting us...

Sive as always THANK YOU
Also my thoughts are same as Hazli
Can you please get this IDIOT!!!! OF THIS FORUM FROM FPA .....

Thank you

IDIOT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Guys,
I've moved post back in moderation, unfortunately I have no rights to ban forumers. But I will inform about him...

Sive, do you always use the 0.786 fib level for all timeframes or just the monthly? I thought I read in the Dinapoli book that he only uses 38.2, 61.8, 100, and 161.8?

Thanks Sive!

Hi BeeKay,
I do not use too often 0.786 or 0886 levels. You're right, mostly I use it on long time frames - monthly and weekly. Aso I use 50% level usually for long bars.
They are not typical for DiNapoli, but I find them useful still. Mostly, because they are significant in harmonic patterns, as well as 1.272 and 1.618 extension of retracements.

 

[rashidin5178]

Hi Sive,

Thanks again for your wonderful research and explanation, as always.
I have some difficulties to recognise this pattern whether it is bearish pennant or bullish wedge on GBPUSD monthly chart. For me, it's look like bearish pennat if we consider vertical price action before consolidation. But the problem is, I think it is too much consolidate to be pennant. If this is pennant, by looking at its mast, the target is around 1.0!!! Could it achieve there?
It is very appreciated if you can elaborate some of your advice and where the price should be because of this pattern.

 

[BeeKay8]

Hi BeeKay,
I do not use too often 0.786 or 0886 levels. You're right, mostly I use it on long time frames - monthly and weekly. Aso I use 50% level usually for long bars.
They are not typical for DiNapoli, but I find them useful still. Mostly, because they are significant in harmonic patterns, as well as 1.272 and 1.618 extension of retracements.

Thanks a lot for you clarification. I appreciate your work.

I have another question. In order to get Confluence K, you must get the Fibonacci Extension or Retracement of the Reaction Numbers. Let's pretend tehre was a Market Swing UP and had four Reaction Points. Would I take the Fibonacci Extension or Retracement FROM the Focus Number to EACH Reaction Point or would I take Fibonacci from Focus Number to Reaction 1, and then a NEW Fibonacci from Reaction 1 to 2, and then 2 to 3 and so on? Also, which way am I supposed to draw the Fibonacci when I am trying to find Confluence K? IF I do draw Fibonacci from the Focus Number to EACH Reaction Point, would I start the Fibonacci from F or would I go from Reaction 1 to F, or Reaction 2 to F, and so on?

I hope I explained my questions well enough for you to understand. I was just reading the book and I am not quite understanding which points are 0.382 or 0.618 because it does not show on the graphs. 0.382 and 0.618 could be different depending which point you started drawing your Fibonacci from.

Thanks a lot Sive!

 

[Triantus Shango]

if i may make an attempt at an answer (and please correct me if i am wrong)...

first let me redefine your terms to make sure we are talking about the same thing. by 'reaction numbers' i assume that you mean each fib node or retrace level such as 23.6, 38.2, 50, and so on. and by 'focus number' i assume that you mean the starting low or high from which to draw the fib retracements or extensions.

if the above is true, then:

let's assume a bullish trend with a low denoted 'L' and a high denoted 'H'. furthermore, let's also assume a significant pullback within that bullish trend, that is, between L and H. this pullback gives us a new intermediate low denoted L'. and let's assume the bull trend resumes after L' to end at the same high as the larger trend mentioned before, that is, H = H'.

now, we will draw the first fib retracements from L to H. and then we will draw a second fib retracement from L' to H.

i will call a particular fib retracement level a fib node. that is, 38.2 is a fib node, and so on.

let's denote the whole first fib retracement structure of the larger move by fibLH and the secondary fib retracement structure within that larger move by fibL'H.

my understanding of confluence is this: if we have a fib node from fibLH that coincides with a fib node from fibL'H, say, for example, fibLH(38.2) comes very close to fibL'H(61.8)--and 'close' here i guess depends on the time frame (TF), but usually it will be within the following range (in terms of pips) [0, 15] on H1/H4, and wider on higher TFs--then that would be a confluence, that is, a coming together of 2 significant fib nodes drawn from 2 different fib retracement structures. sometimes, for a particular trend, you can draw more than 2 fib retracement structures.

as regards fib extension (ext) structures, the starting point will also be L (for bullish trends, H for bearish trends). if a fib ext node coincides (close enough) to a fib retrace node, then we have an agreement area.

fib ext structures are also drawn within the context of a forming AB=CD structure after the AB and BC legs are completed in order to estimate a potential end point for the CD leg.

hope i made no mistakes ;-) and that it makes sense.

 

[Triantus Shango]

New chat room

guys, we have moved over to a new chat room, mibbit. zippychat keeps logging people out after a short idle time, which is annoying as hell.

mibbit is built on top of IRC and the UI is way better--you send pix, vids, etc... in real time and they display on the right while still staying on the same page and continuing the chat session.

here is the address: Mibbit.com Webchat client

in the middle blue box type your FPA alias in the 'Nick' text field, and in the 'Channel' text field type: #FPASteamroom.

then click 'Connect' and you will be chatting with your fellow FPA recruits.

hope to see you there.

 

[rashidin5178]

You're growing up, Triantus

 

[shahbaz]

sive I like your analysis very much you are a big shcool of forex teaching but it would be more helpful if we could be able to use same tools as yours
mean in mt4 we dont have Macd Predictor and moving average 3 by 3 is there any possiblity to creat or have them for mt4 and also dinapoli fibo
thc

 

[BeeKay8]

if i may make an attempt at an answer (and please correct me if i am wrong)...

first let me redefine your terms to make sure we are talking about the same thing. by 'reaction numbers' i assume that you mean each fib node or retrace level such as 23.6, 38.2, 50, and so on. and by 'focus number' i assume that you mean the starting low or high from which to draw the fib retracements or extensions.

if the above is true, then:

let's assume a bullish trend with a low denoted 'L' and a high denoted 'H'. furthermore, let's also assume a significant pullback within that bullish trend, that is, between L and H. this pullback gives us a new intermediate low denoted L'. and let's assume the bull trend resumes after L' to end at the same high as the larger trend mentioned before, that is, H = H'.

now, we will draw the first fib retracements from L to H. and then we will draw a second fib retracement from L' to H.

i will call a particular fib retracement level a fib node. that is, 38.2 is a fib node, and so on.

let's denote the whole first fib retracement structure of the larger move by fibLH and the secondary fib retracement structure within that larger move by fibL'H.

my understanding of confluence is this: if we have a fib node from fibLH that coincides with a fib node from fibL'H, say, for example, fibLH(38.2) comes very close to fibL'H(61.8)--and 'close' here i guess depends on the time frame (TF), but usually it will be within the following range (in terms of pips) [0, 15] on H1/H4, and wider on higher TFs--then that would be a confluence, that is, a coming together of 2 significant fib nodes drawn from 2 different fib retracement structures. sometimes, for a particular trend, you can draw more than 2 fib retracement structures.

as regards fib extension (ext) structures, the starting point will also be L (for bullish trends, H for bearish trends). if a fib ext node coincides (close enough) to a fib retrace node, then we have an agreement area.

fib ext structures are also drawn within the context of a forming AB=CD structure after the AB and BC legs are completed in order to estimate a potential end point for the CD leg.

hope i made no mistakes ;-) and that it makes sense.

I do not think we are talking about the same thing. I am talking about REACTION NUMBER, not Fibnodes. Fibnodes and Reaction Numbers are two different things. Reaction Number or Point is defined as "a low or high point within a given Market Swing (numbers 1 through 5)

Focus Number is the "extreme of the Market Swing. It is the location on a chart from which ALL retracement values for a given Market Swing are calculated."

I think that definition actually just answered my question?

So in my example in my previous post, I said if Market Swing was UP and had four Reaction Points, then I would take the Focus Point and get a Fibonacci Retracement for ALL FOUR Reaction Points? Please correct me if I am wrong.

Since in a Market Swing Up the Focus Point is at the high of the whole swing up, would I draw Fibonacci from the top of the swing (my Focus Point) to the other four Reaction Points? I thought all Fibonacci Retracements or Extensions were drawn from left to right?

Thanks