Sive Morten
Special Consultant to the FPA
- Messages
- 18,648
Monthly
Trend is strongly bearish, market is not at oversold. We see now some pullback to the upside. Personally, I a bit confused how to treat it – still as a respect of Agreement area or as pullback from 0.786 support. Was it too deep penetration of Agreement area – decide by yourself. Still, if you will treat area between 0.768 and 0.618 as some support zone, then we might say that market has found some support here, and may be we will see some notable retracement. There are two significant levels of resistance at monthly chart that are mostly close to current price action – 1.3296 as 0.382 resistance from solid thrust bar down and 1.3505 – major 0.382 resistance level. Also current price action looks as solid hammer pattern. From its perspective, we can say that downward move has continued only if price will take out its low 1.2627. Based on monthly chart we still can’t estimate potential depth of this retracement.
Conclusion from monthly chart is as follows – market has found some support and now under way to respect it by solid bullish hammer pattern. Breakout of 1.2627 can be as indicator of reestablishing downward trend, while to the upside nearest resistances are 1.3296 and 1.3505
Weekly
On previous week we’ve noted this almost perfect morning star candle pattern and said that probably market could proceed higher. First resistance level has bit hit – 1.3244 level. Next area is stronger one – Confluence resistance 1.3505-1.3624. But here is another level exists that could become also significant – monthly pivot resistance 1 at 1.3389. Although there are two days till the end of the month, still, it might be significant, since market has closed above pivot. Pivot resistance could tell us – is it just retracement or we should expect stronger move to upside, depending on how market will behave around it. Usually pivot resistance holds retracement up during long solid bear trends.
Second thought is about trend and potential stop grabber. The point is that market has tried to shift trend to bullish, but close precisely at MACD level – 1.3207. So we can’t treat it as pure stop grabber. We can’t even estimate trend, since close price equals MACD level. That’s why I offer you to focus on another possibility.
Since this is first pullback after solid move down – it can’t last forever, even more - it should turn to deep retracement – 0.618 at minimum, now this is 1.2860. This is nice context for DiNapoli B&B “Sell” – good thrust down, close above 3x3 DMA and reaching significant resistance level. One problem though, is that B&B could start from some higher level, since it might be 1-3 closes above 3x3 DMA, while we have just first close. Anyway solution should be on lower time frames.
Daily
Trend is strongly bullish, actually we have nice thrust that might be suitable as for DRPO “Sell” as for “B&B” Buy. (I hope you are not confused by potential simultaneous existence of opposite B&B’s on weekly and daily. In fact, there is no contradiction). Although we do not have any of them yet, but this is just a note – be ready if they will appear. This might be good possibility with reasonable risk.
Market stands at daily K-resistance area and has accomplished, at least theoretically, minimum target of daily 3-Drive “Buy” pattern. Market has reached and slightly exceeded top between 2nd and 3rd lows. Although some continuation could happen – market at K-resistance and we stand in potential point of weekly B&B directional pattern. This is not the time to enter long. In the beginning of the week we must be careful to any possible Sell patterns that could be formed in this area. If market will still proceed higher, then next level to watch as solid resistance is 1.3380-1.34 as monthly resistance and daily overbought.
On second chart we can see support levels. Colored lines are pivot points, nearest Fib support at 1.3004 that is close to pivot support 1. As we’ve said, if B&B will start on weekly chart, its target is 1.2860
4-hour
Here we have bullish trend and, unfortunately no hint on reversal pattern. Our 3-Drive has been cancelled as we’ve specified conditions for that on Friday (although it could shift to another 3-Drive, since market is forming drives side-by-side). But we have upward channel. This is obvious that any reversal pattern that could trigger B&B on weekly chart should show downward breakout of this channel. Also we have this recent AB=CD with target around weekly pivot resistance 1. Anyway, even if you would like to enter long, it is probably reasonable to wait a pullback at least to lower border, nearest Fib support and weekly point.
1-hour
Trend is bullish hear. Well, we have this pattern – Butterfly “Sell” at 1.3253 completion point, but still this is just hint, some possible scenario and so on. Will it be particular pattern that we wait as B&B “sell” triggering point or not – we will see, but deep retracement down should happen soon.
Conclusion:
Long-term bias still holds bearish, but market now turning to some pause with nice hammer pattern. Probably this is respect of the area that we’ve discussed previously. We can speak about downward continuation only if market will take low at 1.2627.
Weekly time frame is most important in current days, since it has context for directional pattern with excellent trading potential. Our major task is to catch triggering reversal pattern on daily or may be on 4-hour time frame for two reasons. First, estimate the starting point of B&B, second determine where to enter and where to place stop. One problem still is that if market will proceed higher – this will not cancel B&B, since theoretically there could be even 2 weeks more before it will be triggered.
On daily time frame market stands and K-resistance, so even if you would like to enter long, and we assume that market will proceed higher – it’s better to wait a pullback. It could start by Butterfly “Sell” on hourly time frame. Also market stands in upward channel on 4-hour time frame. Probably, breakout of this channel should happen as a sign of B&B “sell” start and move to 1.2860.
The technical portion of Sive's analysis owes a great deal to Joe DiNapoli's methods, and uses a number of Joe's proprietary indicators. Please note that Sive's analysis is his own view of the market and is not endorsed by Joe DiNapoli or any related companies.
Trend is strongly bearish, market is not at oversold. We see now some pullback to the upside. Personally, I a bit confused how to treat it – still as a respect of Agreement area or as pullback from 0.786 support. Was it too deep penetration of Agreement area – decide by yourself. Still, if you will treat area between 0.768 and 0.618 as some support zone, then we might say that market has found some support here, and may be we will see some notable retracement. There are two significant levels of resistance at monthly chart that are mostly close to current price action – 1.3296 as 0.382 resistance from solid thrust bar down and 1.3505 – major 0.382 resistance level. Also current price action looks as solid hammer pattern. From its perspective, we can say that downward move has continued only if price will take out its low 1.2627. Based on monthly chart we still can’t estimate potential depth of this retracement.
Conclusion from monthly chart is as follows – market has found some support and now under way to respect it by solid bullish hammer pattern. Breakout of 1.2627 can be as indicator of reestablishing downward trend, while to the upside nearest resistances are 1.3296 and 1.3505
Weekly
On previous week we’ve noted this almost perfect morning star candle pattern and said that probably market could proceed higher. First resistance level has bit hit – 1.3244 level. Next area is stronger one – Confluence resistance 1.3505-1.3624. But here is another level exists that could become also significant – monthly pivot resistance 1 at 1.3389. Although there are two days till the end of the month, still, it might be significant, since market has closed above pivot. Pivot resistance could tell us – is it just retracement or we should expect stronger move to upside, depending on how market will behave around it. Usually pivot resistance holds retracement up during long solid bear trends.
Second thought is about trend and potential stop grabber. The point is that market has tried to shift trend to bullish, but close precisely at MACD level – 1.3207. So we can’t treat it as pure stop grabber. We can’t even estimate trend, since close price equals MACD level. That’s why I offer you to focus on another possibility.
Since this is first pullback after solid move down – it can’t last forever, even more - it should turn to deep retracement – 0.618 at minimum, now this is 1.2860. This is nice context for DiNapoli B&B “Sell” – good thrust down, close above 3x3 DMA and reaching significant resistance level. One problem though, is that B&B could start from some higher level, since it might be 1-3 closes above 3x3 DMA, while we have just first close. Anyway solution should be on lower time frames.
Daily
Trend is strongly bullish, actually we have nice thrust that might be suitable as for DRPO “Sell” as for “B&B” Buy. (I hope you are not confused by potential simultaneous existence of opposite B&B’s on weekly and daily. In fact, there is no contradiction). Although we do not have any of them yet, but this is just a note – be ready if they will appear. This might be good possibility with reasonable risk.
Market stands at daily K-resistance area and has accomplished, at least theoretically, minimum target of daily 3-Drive “Buy” pattern. Market has reached and slightly exceeded top between 2nd and 3rd lows. Although some continuation could happen – market at K-resistance and we stand in potential point of weekly B&B directional pattern. This is not the time to enter long. In the beginning of the week we must be careful to any possible Sell patterns that could be formed in this area. If market will still proceed higher, then next level to watch as solid resistance is 1.3380-1.34 as monthly resistance and daily overbought.
On second chart we can see support levels. Colored lines are pivot points, nearest Fib support at 1.3004 that is close to pivot support 1. As we’ve said, if B&B will start on weekly chart, its target is 1.2860
4-hour
Here we have bullish trend and, unfortunately no hint on reversal pattern. Our 3-Drive has been cancelled as we’ve specified conditions for that on Friday (although it could shift to another 3-Drive, since market is forming drives side-by-side). But we have upward channel. This is obvious that any reversal pattern that could trigger B&B on weekly chart should show downward breakout of this channel. Also we have this recent AB=CD with target around weekly pivot resistance 1. Anyway, even if you would like to enter long, it is probably reasonable to wait a pullback at least to lower border, nearest Fib support and weekly point.
1-hour
Trend is bullish hear. Well, we have this pattern – Butterfly “Sell” at 1.3253 completion point, but still this is just hint, some possible scenario and so on. Will it be particular pattern that we wait as B&B “sell” triggering point or not – we will see, but deep retracement down should happen soon.
Conclusion:
Long-term bias still holds bearish, but market now turning to some pause with nice hammer pattern. Probably this is respect of the area that we’ve discussed previously. We can speak about downward continuation only if market will take low at 1.2627.
Weekly time frame is most important in current days, since it has context for directional pattern with excellent trading potential. Our major task is to catch triggering reversal pattern on daily or may be on 4-hour time frame for two reasons. First, estimate the starting point of B&B, second determine where to enter and where to place stop. One problem still is that if market will proceed higher – this will not cancel B&B, since theoretically there could be even 2 weeks more before it will be triggered.
On daily time frame market stands and K-resistance, so even if you would like to enter long, and we assume that market will proceed higher – it’s better to wait a pullback. It could start by Butterfly “Sell” on hourly time frame. Also market stands in upward channel on 4-hour time frame. Probably, breakout of this channel should happen as a sign of B&B “sell” start and move to 1.2860.
The technical portion of Sive's analysis owes a great deal to Joe DiNapoli's methods, and uses a number of Joe's proprietary indicators. Please note that Sive's analysis is his own view of the market and is not endorsed by Joe DiNapoli or any related companies.