FOREX PRO Weekly July 02-06, 2012

[Triantus Shango]

WED 7.4 e/u sentiment:

Focus on the huge German Bunds redemptions and coupons due today. Some EUR27 bln worth of redemption and EUR13.06bln worth of coupons due today for Deutscheland Rep. While Germany offers EUR4.0bln 5-year federal notes, 7 April 2017 today.


On FX, good to watch the above - for any huge EUR, EUR/JPY, EUR/GBP sales from Japanese and Chinese, Asian accounts for the coupons, including from UK, US names as well. EUR, EUR/Crosses vulnerable to repatriation of JPY, GBP, USD from the German bunds coupons/ redemption. Eye any huge Japanese securities houses, custodian, tust banks sales in EUR/JPY, EUR/USD. EUR/USD at 1.2586-88, good bids 1.2550-60, but stops below 1.2540-50. EUR/JPY at 100.45-50, good offers at 100.48-50, eye break of 100.00 again. Further weighed by concerns over stability of German coalition government, after CSU warning to German Chan Merkel on eurozone emergency loans. WL

Source: Flows - Foreign Exchange - EUR/JPY | 4CAST

 

[hassan079]

Hi everyone
so guys what you think if we breached 1.2510 area then is it possible that we will see price keep on falling till 1.2200 area ? Right now at the time of writing , price is revolving at a solid support that is weekly n monthly pivot so i beleive that if price go below this support then definately 1.2510 area will hold it and rebound ,but if not then maybe we witness a sharp fall , im not sure about this thats why i share my thoughts here with all of you as im a newbie trader

 

[Triantus Shango]

and 2525 is 61.8% of the whole move up from 2410 or so.

 

[Triantus Shango]

to be honest, anything is possible in this business. it could fall, or not. it could take out all majors levels in 2 hours and do a complete 180 without ever closing near 2200. there is neither reason nor logic to this. only madness.

that being said, 2510 is past the 61.8% retrace of the whole move up post EU summit. so if market stays under that, then the next targets become all the minor retrace nodes between 61.8% and 100%.

i'd also watch the MPS1 (monthly pivot support 1) which comes in close to 78.6% node of the whole move up from 2288.

also, i'd watch if price breaks below any of the previous lows.

that's on daily chart.

now, if all these levels mentioned above are broken, then it also means that price would have broken to fib ext levels on weekly: 61.8 and 100 from 2 different fib ext (AB=CD) structures. then next targets we have are: fib ext 113 = 2217, 127.2 = 1955 of larger AB=CD, and fib ext 100 = 1877 of smaller AB=CD right below MPS3.

note that MPS1 = 2382, which is not that far from a 50% fib retrace node and 144 MA on monthly, both of which provided SPPT in may and june as price was unable to break below these SPPT levels. (i was told that quite a few traders use MAs whose periods are fibonacci numbers on longer TFs, hence the 144 MA.)

of course, all the way between here and there, you also have to watch for harmonic patterns on shorter TFs. could give good play opportunities.

and finally, watch out what price does around 100 and 200 MAs on M5 and H1. so many times, if there is enough space between 100 and 200 MA on H1, range action will appear if market is not trending. and of course, traders re-buy or re-sell against the levels defined by the 100 and 200 MAs.

cheers.

Hi everyone
so guys what you think if we breached 1.2510 area then is it possible that we will see price keep on falling till 1.2200 area ? Right now at the time of writing , price is revolving at a solid support that is weekly n monthly pivot so i beleive that if price go below this support then definately 1.2510 area will hold it and rebound ,but if not then maybe we witness a sharp fall , im not sure about this thats why i share my thoughts here with all of you as im a newbie trader

 

[minimax]

Hi Hassan

just bought with stop 5 pipis bellow low because if my count is correct we should (must) not do new low. Projection 1,2720/40, in no case in my opinion above; from there to 1,2100.

Good trades to all !!

 

[minimax]

Hm, new low! Must reevaluate now...

 

[Triantus Shango]

a bit tight, that stop, ain't it?

don't mean to rain on your parade, but considering the DXY, looks like USD is strengthening. also, we're right on top of MPP and crossing 100 MA on H1. if price bounces off 61.8 = 2521 and holds above 200 MA H1, then i'll go long. otherwise i'll keep shorting the JPY crosses (except u/j).

Hi Hassan

just bought with stop 5 pipis bellow low because if my count is correct we should (must) not do new low. Projection 1,2720/40, in no case in my opinion above; from there to 1,2100.

Good trades to all !!


View attachment 5936

 

[D.R.&Quinch]

WED 7.4 e/u sentiment:

Focus on the huge German Bunds redemptions and coupons due today. Some EUR27 bln worth of redemption and EUR13.06bln worth of coupons due today for Deutscheland Rep. While Germany offers EUR4.0bln 5-year federal notes, 7 April 2017 today

On FX, good to watch the above - for any huge EUR, EUR/JPY, EUR/GBP sales from Japanese and Chinese, Asian accounts for the coupons, including from UK, US names as well. EUR, EUR/Crosses vulnerable to repatriation of JPY, GBP, USD from the German bunds coupons/ redemption. Eye any huge Japanese securities houses, custodian, tust banks sales in EUR/JPY, EUR/USD. EUR/USD at 1.2586-88, good bids 1.2550-60, but stops below 1.2540-50. EUR/JPY at 100.45-50, good offers at 100.48-50, eye break of 100.00 again. Further weighed by concerns over stability of German coalition government, after CSU warning to German Chan Merkel on eurozone emergency loans. WL

Thanks for that. Now i need to read up on fundamentals cos that went over my head!
still short

 

[minimax]

Remain long just stop moved to 1,2540, think 1,2546 will hold

 

[seedof]

guys i think there is a butterfly buy forming on 1hr does anyone also see it because i'm not yet good with harmonic