FOREX PRO Weekly July 04-08, 2011

[Allen Bailey]

Thank you sir for your kind help..
My chart is also showing 4hr Bearish Garterly..
Sir my chart and your is very different (about 40pips) so can you please help me to specify the "Long Entry Point" in my chart (as per this week analysis)..
I will be very thankful to you..
Thank you so very much once again..

If i'm not mistaken I believe we have to add 30-35 pips to Sive numbers.

AB

 

[Triantus Shango]

Thanks for the analysis. As you said don't rely on divergence only, and sure enough, that's what I did so sure that said divergence was indicating that the bearish reversal was at hand. Now my trade is under water and am caressing my rabbit's foot for good luck and burning incense and offering to the gods.

 

[Sive Morten]

So where to enter long in spot ..??

If i'm not mistaken I believe we have to add 30-35 pips to Sive numbers.

AB

Hi Guys,
That's right about 35 pips currently 1.4440 is a first area to watch, 1.4400 - the second

Thanks for the analysis. As you said don't rely on divergence only, and sure enough, that's what I did so sure that said divergence was indicating that the bearish reversal was at hand. Now my trade is under water and am caressing my rabbit's foot for good luck and burning incense and offering to the gods.

Hi Triantus,
In such cases it makes sense to move stop a bit higher than 1.618 target as it was in our scenario. See - market hit it, and start solid move down.

 

[Sive Morten]

Hi Sive,

I just attached a chart for more clearer discussion. Sorry for any inconveniences.

By the way, I do not read carefully your analysis this time...you do not mentioned it in detail about this pattern..but you give us a homework. So, sorry and I retreat my word that you don't mentioned it.

Hence, I change my question...what is your opinion about this H4 and daily Gartley sell pattern? I mean from the perspective of market behaviour...what can we expect.

Sorry for asking again.

Thanks and Best Regards.

Thank you sir for your kind help..
My chart is also showing 4hr Bearish Garterly..
Sir my chart and your is very different (about 40pips) so can you please help me to specify the "Long Entry Point" in my chart (as per this week analysis)..
I will be very thankful to you..
Thank you so very much once again..

Rashidin, Lolly,
yes, we have this Gartley "222". But there is a couple of moments that makes me worry with it. If you've read research carefully, you should remember it:
1. Look, how larger downmove develops on daily. Market has hit just 0.618 target from huge daily AB-CD, shown retracement, but then was not able even renew the lows. This is not typical.
2. The batterfly that is forming on daily/weekly chrart is very often takes places after solid long-term moves.
3. On monthly chart market was at overbought at Fib resistance. All that it could show - retracement to nearest Fib support at 1.4140. This is also a sign of strength.
4. Also look, how it behave around 1.0 target, this AB=CD move up is very harmonic, almost perfect, but market does not show any pullback from AB=CD target.
That's why this Gartley 222 either could fail, or, just show some shallow move down. Also is possible that CD leg will be extended. Anyway, currently I do not see solid "sell" signals, may be later will appear something.

 

[rashidin5178]

Rashidin, Lolly,
yes, we have this Gartley "222". But there is a couple of moments that makes me worry with it. If you've read research carefully, you should remember it:
1. Look, how larger downmove develops on daily. Market has hit just 0.618 target from huge daily AB-CD, shown retracement, but then was not able even renew the lows. This is not typical.
2. The batterfly that is forming on daily/weekly chrart is very often takes places after solid long-term moves.
3. On monthly chart market was at overbought at Fib resistance. All that it could show - retracement to nearest Fib support at 1.4140. This is also a sign of strength.
4. Also look, how it behave around 1.0 target, this AB=CD move up is very harmonic, almost perfect, but market does not show any pullback from AB=CD target.
That's why this Gartley 222 either could fail, or, just show some shallow move down. Also is possible that CD leg will be extended. Anyway, currently I do not see solid "sell" signals, may be later will appear something.

Hi Sive,

Thank you very much for this great assistance. Very valuable information. Thanks again, Sir.

I'm agree with you about the pullback...very slow and lazy.

Just to clarify with you, refer to your answer "2. The batterfly that is forming on daily/weekly chrart is very often takes places after solid long-term moves."....it sounds that very often Gartley 222 pattern on daily/weekly chart could fail and it maybe turn to butterfly pattern that D point is between 1.618 and 2.618 of extention from B-C? Kindly please give some clarification/advice about this?

Anyway, I will take full attention on the development of these patterns. I hope when the time is come, you also will touch it in detail.

 

[Sive Morten]

Hi Sive,

Thank you very much for this great assistance. Very valuable information. Thanks again, Sir.

I'm agree with you about the pullback...very slow and lazy.

Just to clarify with you, refer to your answer "2. The batterfly that is forming on daily/weekly chrart is very often takes places after solid long-term moves."....it sounds that very often Gartley 222 pattern on daily/weekly chart could fail and it maybe turn to butterfly pattern that D point is between 1.618 and 2.618 of extention from B-C? Kindly please give some clarification/advice about this?

Anyway, I will take full attention on the development of these patterns. I hope when the time is come, you also will touch it in detail.

That's right. The failing of "222" will be the first bell of possible turning to Butterfly pattern.
The target of Butterfly usually determined not by AB=CD, but initial swing down. Usually 1.27 or 1.618 are used in opposite direction. In our case 1.27 is around 1.52.
Speaking about "tracking" patterns - of cause we have to do that, since if something will appear, we have to be on guard.

 

[rashidin5178]

That's right. The failing of "222" will be the first bell of possible turning to Butterfly pattern.
The target of Butterfly usually determined not by AB=CD, but initial swing down. Usually 1.27 or 1.618 are used in opposite direction. In our case 1.27 is around 1.52.
Speaking about "tracking" patterns - of cause we have to do that, since if something will appear, we have to be on guard.

Aye aye, Sir. Thanks a lot.

 

[Triantus Shango]

H4 Gartley 222

rashidin

i was just going to post regarding this sell gartley 222. i was looking at it this morning on the H1 chart. and sure enough, since the high of 4581 (spot) EUR dropped 100 pips.

now... sive, would i be correct in saying that we should watch the 50% and 61.8% fibs of the [4102-4581] retracement as potential profit targets?

however, if touch down at 38.2% and bounce from there, i'd reverse and go long as this indicates weak retrace momentum, especially after this kind of sell gartley, and previous long trend [4102-4581] still not nullified but well and alive with perhaps enough stamina to push back above 4550. do you or anyone else concur with this analysis?

thanks and godspeed to all in this mindboggling market.

 

[Sive Morten]

rashidin

i was just going to post regarding this sell gartley 222. i was looking at it this morning on the H1 chart. and sure enough, since the high of 4581 (spot) EUR dropped 100 pips.

now... sive, would i be correct in saying that we should watch the 50% and 61.8% fibs of the [4102-4581] retracement as potential profit targets?

however, if touch down at 38.2% and bounce from there, i'd reverse and go long as this indicates weak retrace momentum, especially after this kind of sell gartley, and previous long trend [4102-4581] still not nullified but well and alive with perhaps enough stamina to push back above 4550. do you or anyone else concur with this analysis?

thanks and godspeed to all in this mindboggling market.

Hi Tirantus,
well, in general your approach is correct, but Independence day worries me a bit. Probably is better to wait some reaction from the working market - now it's a bit thin and moves could be not quite adequate.

 

[Sive Morten]

EUR/USD Daily Update, Tue 05, July 2011

Good morning,
there are no much changes have happened on the market, since it was rather thin and calm due Independence holiday.
Still, the first part of our trading plan has been accomplished - market has erased divergence and hit 1.618 target at 1.4540 area. And only after that has turned to retracement.

Current picture of hourly chart shows that market at least will reach 1.4407 - our "first to watch" area - that is monthly pivot, previous highs, first Fib support at 4-hour chart and Agreement with 1.618 target.

Second area, and is my prefferable - 1.4350 - Confluence support, and weekly pivot.
In general, from bullish perspectives I do not want to see breakout of this area by the market. If it will move below both pivots, previous high and 3/8 Fib support, then it will tell us something different.

There are two possible ways to enter Long from that areas:
1. Agressive
You enter just from the levels with reduced volume with hope that market will show some respect of them. When it happens - move stop to breakeven and watch what will happen. If market will break 1.4407 - wait 1.4350 and do the same. Before enter is better to see some patterns with that areas.
2. Conservative.
You follow the market. Wait when market will hit the level, then wait when hourly trend will turn bullish and you will see nice upward move from the level.
IF that will happen - use nearest Fib support from this new small move up to enter.