FOREX PRO Weekly July 04-08, 2011

[Triantus Shango]

well i'll be damned. the AB=CD on H1 had a nice CD extension of CD = 2xAB. if on the bounce back from 4395 price doesn't breach 50% retrace at 4474 on H1, which coincides with the mid of my fractal chaos bands, then i'll add to my short position for T1 = 4339 (50% of [4102-4577]) and T2 = 4283 (61.8% of [4102-4577]).

any thoughts re this trading plan, fellow traders?

 

[Sive Morten]

EUR/USD Daily Update, Wed 06, July, 2011

Good morning,
Market has shown pullback, as we expected to the area between monthly and weekly pivots. Now it shows its respection. So, if you've applied agressive enter tactic, now you should have some profit position.
In general we have bullish bias, since daily trend is bullish and hourly trend is bullish. Market stopped at our prefferable level. One thing that is bearish now - bearish engulfing on daily time frame. That's why we can't exclude deeper retracement to 1.4250. But to start speak about it we need breakout of weekly pivot to the downside.
While that has not happened yet, we can try to apply conservative tactic to enter. Look at 15-min chart - we can try to enter from nearest Fib support at 1.4407 with stop below 1.4380.
This will be very tight stop, and even if we're wrong, we will not loose much. If we're right market should continue move up

 

[Sive Morten]

it just occurred to me... as i look at all the charts posted here i noticed that no one seems to be using bollinger bands, which really surprises me. why don't guys uses BBs? i used to but recently switched over to another type of bands.

ok but all the other traders who posted screenshots also don't use BBs. i'd like to find the reason for that. is there something about BBs i don't know about that doesn't make them 'good enough' for trading the FX market intraday?

Triantus,
BB is nice indicator, but you should explain how you apply it. Then we can answer and discuss - may be some better indicators exist for that purpose.
Because speaking just "use BB" not sufficient clarification, since BB could be used for volatility, breakout trading, overbought/oversold estimation etc.

Dear Sive, How many UP candle in hour chart to be considered bullish ?

Nicole,
we estimate trend by MACD, not by the number of candles.

well i'll be damned. the AB=CD on H1 had a nice CD extension of CD = 2xAB. if on the bounce back from 4395 price doesn't breach 50% retrace at 4474 on H1, which coincides with the mid of my fractal chaos bands, then i'll add to my short position for T1 = 4339 (50% of [4102-4577]) and T2 = 4283 (61.8% of [4102-4577]).

any thoughts re this trading plan, fellow traders?

This is one of the possible scenarios, since we have bearish engulfing on daily chart and can't exclude deeper retracement to 1.4250.
However the major risk of that trade is your enter against the trend.

 

[rashidin5178]

Hi Sive,

Personally, what do you think about the current market behaviour?

 

[yousuf]

Hi

Hi sive, thank you for hard work, i entered a long position, on the confluence support and weekly pivot point at 14355.

After reading the COT report from CME, i very much hold bullish bias, plus the trend is bullish and the euro was oversold with a hidden bullish divergence on the 4hour chart.

Lets hope my plan work out.

Yousuf.

 

[Sive Morten]

Hi sive, thank you for hard work, i entered a long position, on the confluence support and weekly pivot point at 14355.

After reading the COT report from CME, i very much hold bullish bias, plus the trend is bullish and the euro was oversold with a hidden bullish divergence on the 4hour chart.

Lets hope my plan work out.

Yousuf.

I hope that you've place stop at B/e as we discussed. Due to Portugal downgrading market has cancelled our short-term bullish bias.

 

[Sive Morten]

Hi Sive,

Personally, what do you think about the current market behaviour?

I think that it's time to wait a bit, since bullish short-term scenario was vanished by Portugal downgrading news.

 

[Triantus Shango]

Triantus,
BB is nice indicator, but you should explain how you apply it. Then we can answer and discuss - may be some better indicators exist for that purpose.
Because speaking just "use BB" not sufficient clarification, since BB could be used for volatility, breakout trading, overbought/oversold estimation etc.

sive, i was using BB for breakouts and trend estimation--i was using BB 1 and 2 std deviations. if price was trending and as long as price remained within BB1 and BB2 i would hold the position. when trend seemed exhausted per other indicators and price started to move away from BB2 all the way crossing BB1 i would use that as a signal to close my position provided i had a majority of indicators concur.

recently i switched over to what an indicator called, fractal chaos bands--yeah, i know, what a gimmicky name, but it seems to give a much cleaner vision of trending breakouts and momentum exhaustion. the indicator is provided by my broker with the free charting s/w (software) they give their clients.

 

[Sive Morten]

sive, i was using BB for breakouts and trend estimation--i was using BB 1 and 2 std deviations. if price was trending and as long as price remained within BB1 and BB2 i would hold the position. when trend seemed exhausted per other indicators and price started to move away from BB2 all the way crossing BB1 i would use that as a signal to close my position provided i had a majority of indicators concur.

recently i switched over to what an indicator called, fractal chaos bands--yeah, i know, what a gimmicky name, but it seems to give a much cleaner vision of trending breakouts and momentum exhaustion. the indicator is provided by my broker with the free charting s/w (software) they give their clients.

Your using of BB is correct. But I prefer to use harmonic approach to estimate trend and MACD.
Soon on Forex Military School there will appear chapters about that, as well as on BB using.

 

[Triantus Shango]

thank you sive. it's good to know i got the technique right. the irony is that i still lose money--always do something stupid because i can't control my impulses. why is mind control so hard? damn.