FOREX PRO Weekly July 04-08, 2011

sive, you wrote H4 trend is bullish. i don't understand how you come to this conclusion. i attached 2 screenshots: one has the x-axis compressed to show more of the past data all the way back to start of the bull trend. on my H4 chart, post-NFP release, there doesn't seem to be any indication of a bullish bias. when NFP was released, the EUR shot up, then the market completely reversed back to the start of the jump and we are back + or - to where we were pre-NFP.

so.... what am i missing here?

Hi Triantus,
I use MACD for trend identification. I've said "Bullish" because if you take a look on my chart - I've made research in the morning (EU), so at that moment market stands after frist strong pullback up, so trend was bullish.
 
ok, i see. would it be fair then to say that now (based on the H4 chart i posted) since the retrace of [4102-4567] has breached the 61.8% fib level, and because MACD still has not crossed up, and price has closed below 61.8% fib, and considering the type of candles we got on Friday, that the market is still--at least for the very short term--in a bearish mood and price could potentially continue dropping towards the 4102 level (100% retrace)?

or this inverted U-shape the candles make from pre-NFP to post-NFP, could this be considered a mini-double-bottom? or is the time frame context too narrow to come to a double-bottom conclusion? especially when considering the previous context of sell Gartley after the bullish move up to close 4700?
 
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