Sive Morten
Special Consultant to the FPA
- Messages
- 18,669
Monthly
Monthly trend holds strongly bearish. After hitting of 0.618 target from huge AB-CD pattern market has shown light but logical retracement. Now price is entering into support area 1.19-1.23 that held EUR twice from collapse – first time in 2008 when sub-prime crisis has started and second – in 2010 at beginning of Greece turmoil. Although market is now also at 0.88 Fib support from most recent swing, but it has minor importance. Our minimum target is 1.16-1.17 area, based on analysis of quarterly chart of Dollar Index that we’ve made in Nov 2011. Index has 95% correlation with EUR/USD. Also this is AB=CD target of most recent pattern on current chart. Technically this level has an explanation as well.
Now we see price action that supports overall bearish situation. Market is not at oversold, so from that perspective it has no significant support that could hold price action till previous lows at 1.1875
Weekly
Weekly trend is bearish. Market has corrected oversold level. Overall price action looks bearish –our bearish flag has been broken down. Look at the weekly candle - it has opened at the high and closed at the low. Its range engulfs whole previous month – 5 weeks. That was solid price action. As we can see upward retracement was shallow, right till previous lows nearest Fib resistance level. Also take a look – market has closed below monthly pivot support 1. This is very bearish sign.
Despite the way, how you will calculate the target – either based on mast of flag counted down or using our AB=CD pattern, result will be the same. It points on lower border of monthly support range. Probably we can use recent swing down as a working space of our daily analysis for searching suitable entry levels.
Daily
Daily trend is bearish, as well as price action. But market stands at oversold – I apply here 100% oversold level, while usually I use 80% that is more suitable for this pair. But market has penetrated even this level. Sometimes, under some strong fundamental or political factors, when price stands under solid pressure – it could be oversold for long period or even creep with oversold over time. But financial markets rare stand at oversold per se, contrary to commodities. You may act as you want of cause, but logic and technical picture tells that we need some rally to sell. Personally I do not want to sell at oversold.
As you can see on the picture market has renewed previous lows and butterfly “Buy” could be forming by it. Most interesting for us is 1.618 extension of it, since it stands in relatively close to weekly target of AB=CD pattern. Target of butterfly is 75 pips above, but by some piercing or tale it could hit simultaneously weekly AB=CD level. Still, 1.27 target also could lead to some bounce, since this is also a WPS1=1.2139.
4-hour
Trend is bearish. Here we see AB=CD pattern, that has much steeper CD leg, and price already has accelerated right to 1.27 extension of it. Interestingly, that 1.618 extension stands right at WPS1 and 1.27 level of daily Butterfly pattern. That is probably the next destination. Still, as we’ve said, market at oversold that’s why I prefer to see some bounce, at least to 1.2425 area that is nearest Fib resistance, WPP and previous swing low.
Conclusion:
Market has shown abrupt downward acceleration, so overall context is bearish now on all time frames. Still, market now stands at oversold on daily time frame and I prefer to get some bounce for selling opportunity. Nearest downward destination is 1.2120-1.2140 WPS1 area. Next possible target is 1.1930-1.20.
Probably 1.2425-1.2445 level will be not so bad for searching sell possibility around it.
The technical portion of Sive's analysis owes a great deal to Joe DiNapoli's methods, and uses a number of Joe's proprietary indicators. Please note that Sive's analysis is his own view of the market and is not endorsed by Joe DiNapoli or any related companies.
Monthly trend holds strongly bearish. After hitting of 0.618 target from huge AB-CD pattern market has shown light but logical retracement. Now price is entering into support area 1.19-1.23 that held EUR twice from collapse – first time in 2008 when sub-prime crisis has started and second – in 2010 at beginning of Greece turmoil. Although market is now also at 0.88 Fib support from most recent swing, but it has minor importance. Our minimum target is 1.16-1.17 area, based on analysis of quarterly chart of Dollar Index that we’ve made in Nov 2011. Index has 95% correlation with EUR/USD. Also this is AB=CD target of most recent pattern on current chart. Technically this level has an explanation as well.
Now we see price action that supports overall bearish situation. Market is not at oversold, so from that perspective it has no significant support that could hold price action till previous lows at 1.1875
Weekly
Weekly trend is bearish. Market has corrected oversold level. Overall price action looks bearish –our bearish flag has been broken down. Look at the weekly candle - it has opened at the high and closed at the low. Its range engulfs whole previous month – 5 weeks. That was solid price action. As we can see upward retracement was shallow, right till previous lows nearest Fib resistance level. Also take a look – market has closed below monthly pivot support 1. This is very bearish sign.
Despite the way, how you will calculate the target – either based on mast of flag counted down or using our AB=CD pattern, result will be the same. It points on lower border of monthly support range. Probably we can use recent swing down as a working space of our daily analysis for searching suitable entry levels.
Daily
Daily trend is bearish, as well as price action. But market stands at oversold – I apply here 100% oversold level, while usually I use 80% that is more suitable for this pair. But market has penetrated even this level. Sometimes, under some strong fundamental or political factors, when price stands under solid pressure – it could be oversold for long period or even creep with oversold over time. But financial markets rare stand at oversold per se, contrary to commodities. You may act as you want of cause, but logic and technical picture tells that we need some rally to sell. Personally I do not want to sell at oversold.
As you can see on the picture market has renewed previous lows and butterfly “Buy” could be forming by it. Most interesting for us is 1.618 extension of it, since it stands in relatively close to weekly target of AB=CD pattern. Target of butterfly is 75 pips above, but by some piercing or tale it could hit simultaneously weekly AB=CD level. Still, 1.27 target also could lead to some bounce, since this is also a WPS1=1.2139.
4-hour
Trend is bearish. Here we see AB=CD pattern, that has much steeper CD leg, and price already has accelerated right to 1.27 extension of it. Interestingly, that 1.618 extension stands right at WPS1 and 1.27 level of daily Butterfly pattern. That is probably the next destination. Still, as we’ve said, market at oversold that’s why I prefer to see some bounce, at least to 1.2425 area that is nearest Fib resistance, WPP and previous swing low.
Conclusion:
Market has shown abrupt downward acceleration, so overall context is bearish now on all time frames. Still, market now stands at oversold on daily time frame and I prefer to get some bounce for selling opportunity. Nearest downward destination is 1.2120-1.2140 WPS1 area. Next possible target is 1.1930-1.20.
Probably 1.2425-1.2445 level will be not so bad for searching sell possibility around it.
The technical portion of Sive's analysis owes a great deal to Joe DiNapoli's methods, and uses a number of Joe's proprietary indicators. Please note that Sive's analysis is his own view of the market and is not endorsed by Joe DiNapoli or any related companies.