I have read and re-read this post again in combination with the video where you explain how they have not done the QT to the amount they previously said they will. If I understand correctly we are past the point of no return because of debt, inflation, and consequently the bond market as no option leads to a good outcome:
- If FED keep raising the interest rate; first they can not increase it anywhere near the inflation rate, and it will make financing the debt even more expensive and put even more pressure on households and kill the markets (asset prices) and economy
- If they want to reverse course and save the markets (asset prices) and start a new round QE this will increase inflation in the future, so maybe bond prices get support in the short term but as inflation will increase even more nobody will want buy treasuries again at so much lower the rate of inflation so the investors will start leaving the bond market again, the prices of bonds will drop again and coming up with the money for financing the debt will be even more difficult in the future