Deltoid88
Master Sergeant
- Messages
- 278
Congrats, man, great prophecy
I was able to suggest just first part to the downside
Thanks Sive, but I made a lot of misses on EUR lately. It must be better. Now, upside continuation looks very probable.
Forex FOREX PRO WEEKLY, July 22 - 26, 2019
- Thread starter Sive Morten
- Start date
Thanks Sive, but I made a lot of misses on EUR lately. It must be better. Now, upside continuation looks very probable.
Deltoid88
Master Sergeant
- Messages
- 278
Update on EUR. Downside action has broken whole upside action from 1.1106 lows, making new lows on 1.1101 level. That means strong bullish scenario which I mentioned in my previous post is erased, but upside action should continue in shape of retracement. Question is, will it be retracement on whole downside action from 1.1415, or retracement on downside action from 1.1281?
Daily chart: Here are my 2 most probable scenarios.
4 H chart: This is scenario for bigger retracement.
1 H chart: Scenario for smaller retracement.
How to trade this?
1st position: Long entry in zone 1.123-1.1250, SL=1.11, TP1 zone = 1.1190-1.1212, TP2 zone = 1.1250-1.13
2nd main position: Sell entry in zone = 1.1250-1.13, SL=1.1418, TP zone = 1.07-1.10
Daily chart: Here are my 2 most probable scenarios.
4 H chart: This is scenario for bigger retracement.
1 H chart: Scenario for smaller retracement.
How to trade this?
1st position: Long entry in zone 1.123-1.1250, SL=1.11, TP1 zone = 1.1190-1.1212, TP2 zone = 1.1250-1.13
2nd main position: Sell entry in zone = 1.1250-1.13, SL=1.1418, TP zone = 1.07-1.10
Sive Morten
Special Consultant to the FPA
- Messages
- 18,655
Morning folks,
Today is a bit specific situation when nothing to say about technical picture and major information stands around fundamental events.
Thus, talking on recent ECB statement - nothing new have been said, rate has not been cut (Loan facility rate, which is 0.25% now):
European Central Bank failed to deliver an expected rate cut, while ECB President Mario Draghi offered optimism on the euro zone economy. The bank’s statement said rates would stay “at their present or lower levels.” The common currency’s outlook remained downbeat due to the prospect of further monetary easing.
Rabobank in a research note said Draghi did not live up to expectation that he would be more specific about whether to institute a new asset purchase program. Draghi said there had been no discussion yet on policy tools.
“This suggests that while today’s actions may have been supported by a broad consensus, the discussion in September on the actual easing package to be implemented may reveal more division in the Council. Clearly, not everyone is on the same page here,” Rabobank said.
As you understand the price action totally corresponds to ECB statement - High Wave pattern on daily chart, which indicates indecision. And, as usual, market will follow in the direction of HW breakout.
Also it means that Eye of Sauron turns to Gondor... sorry, all eyes on GBP release and Fed statement. I've said many times already that Fed has no real reasons to cut rates right now. And we think that this will be single act, to compromise with markets, satisfy them and calm down a bit. This lets Fed to follow its own "correct" strategy.
So, we think that it will be only 25 points rate cut (not 50 points) and it will be just single issue. GDP data should be positive. But do not treat it as a signal as I do not trade data releases, and just express my opinion.
It means that I'm tending to idea of downside action on EUR.
Today is a bit specific situation when nothing to say about technical picture and major information stands around fundamental events.
Thus, talking on recent ECB statement - nothing new have been said, rate has not been cut (Loan facility rate, which is 0.25% now):
European Central Bank failed to deliver an expected rate cut, while ECB President Mario Draghi offered optimism on the euro zone economy. The bank’s statement said rates would stay “at their present or lower levels.” The common currency’s outlook remained downbeat due to the prospect of further monetary easing.
Rabobank in a research note said Draghi did not live up to expectation that he would be more specific about whether to institute a new asset purchase program. Draghi said there had been no discussion yet on policy tools.
“This suggests that while today’s actions may have been supported by a broad consensus, the discussion in September on the actual easing package to be implemented may reveal more division in the Council. Clearly, not everyone is on the same page here,” Rabobank said.
As you understand the price action totally corresponds to ECB statement - High Wave pattern on daily chart, which indicates indecision. And, as usual, market will follow in the direction of HW breakout.
Also it means that Eye of Sauron turns to Gondor... sorry, all eyes on GBP release and Fed statement. I've said many times already that Fed has no real reasons to cut rates right now. And we think that this will be single act, to compromise with markets, satisfy them and calm down a bit. This lets Fed to follow its own "correct" strategy.
So, we think that it will be only 25 points rate cut (not 50 points) and it will be just single issue. GDP data should be positive. But do not treat it as a signal as I do not trade data releases, and just express my opinion.
It means that I'm tending to idea of downside action on EUR.
Similar threads
