FOREX PRO Weekly July 25-29, 2011

[rashidin5178]

Hi Sive,

As always, thanks a lot for your analysis. Very helpful for a newbie like me.

If it is worth to answer, why in your today's research you said that there is neither W&R nor RRT on daily timeframe? I guess maybe due to our overall bullish context. Am I right, Sir? For me, it's look like RRT. Can I just simply conclude that any directional pattern should be supported by overall context point of view?.

Thanks and Best Regards.

 

[nicolebobbin]

Hi Sive I have a question here. We all understand the context here should be short sell and trigger trade will be around the right shoulder 1.4405, but what if market will not REACH 1.4405 and drop to 1.4250 right from current level 1.43xx , does it mean that we will miss this trade ?

 

[nicolebobbin]

Oh my god, my pending sell at 1.4405 couldn't triggered, market now break below neckline already, it's pity !

 

[rashidin5178]

Oh my god, my pending sell at 1.4405 couldn't triggered, market now break below neckline already, it's pity !

Hi nicolebobbin,

As far as I concern, the potential neckline should be around 1.4275 (on spot market) and the right shoulder maybe around 1.4435 (on spot market). So if you don't enter the sell position on its head area, you may enter on right shoulder. But if 1.4435 area break, then maybe H&S pattern will fail.

As a newbie, sometimes I'm also got confused when reading Sive's analysis.

Correct me if I'm wrong. No heart feeling.

Thanks and Best Regards.

 

[Sive Morten]

Hi Sive,

As always, thanks a lot for your analysis. Very helpful for a newbie like me.

If it is worth to answer, why in your today's research you said that there is neither W&R nor RRT on daily timeframe? I guess maybe due to our overall bullish context. Am I right, Sir? For me, it's look like RRT. Can I just simply conclude that any directional pattern should be supported by overall context point of view?.

Thanks and Best Regards.

Hi Rashidin,
this is not W&R because there is no object for wash and rinse - no highs from the left, that were cleared out, no stops that were triggered. W&R is a "fast move and return pattern" usually after triggering some stops.
This is not RRT, because RRT aka Rejection of price pattern. What does rejection mean? This is unnatural level of price, that market has reached but not accepted and returned right back.
Hence, market has not have any price action to the left for significant period of time - at least 120-130 periods. Here we see that just 30 periods ago price was at the same level.

Context is based on combination different indicators and patterns. In general some pattern calls "directional pattern" itself a context. For instance, DRPO or H&S failure - this is context, since it overruled trend.

Hi Sive I have a question here. We all understand the context here should be short sell and trigger trade will be around the right shoulder 1.4405, but what if market will not REACH 1.4405 and drop to 1.4250 right from current level 1.43xx , does it mean that we will miss this trade ?

Usually in this case you should wait first retracement to enter. But in current situation I still think, that probably we will see some pullback to 1.44-1.4430 in spot terms.

 

[mjunkyard]

usd/aud

Hi Sive;
It has been a long time since i've asked something.
Are we seeing a drpo in the aud 4hour?
thanks for everything.

 

[rashidin5178]

Hi Rashidin,
this is not W&R because there is no object for wash and rinse - no highs from the left, that were cleared out, no stops that were triggered. W&R is a "fast move and return pattern" usually after triggering some stops.
This is not RRT, because RRT aka Rejection of price pattern. What does rejection mean? This is unnatural level of price, that market has reached but not accepted and returned right back.
Hence, market has not have any price action to the left for significant period of time - at least 120-130 periods. Here we see that just 30 periods ago price was at the same level.

Context is based on combination different indicators and patterns. In general some pattern calls "directional pattern" itself a context. For instance, DRPO or H&S failure - this is context, since it overruled trend.

Aye aye, Sir. Very useful information. I think I got better understanding on RRT. Still need a lot of study anyway.

Thanks a lot.

 

[Sive Morten]

EUR/USD Daily Update, Fri 29, July 2011

Good morning,
Market now is standing at 1.42-1.4250 strong support area. Yesterday we've discussed, that probably it could lead to H&S Failure pattern, but now we do not have H&S pattern yet, so there could be no failure.
If retracement will start from that area - then probably market will only form the right shoulder of potential H&S pattern.
If not - then it should accelerate down right to 1.41 target of engulfing pattern on daily time frame.

Today we have two tasks to do.
1. On hourly chart keep an eye on 1.4190-1.4220 area, since there are 3 different targets coincide with Confluence support and market could show some bullish patterns (3-Drive or may be Butterfly Buy) from there. It could be in a way of W&R of lows around 1.4235. If market will reach 1.4190 and then will show fast return above the pivot - then probably we will see the right shoulder and retracement to 1.44 area;
2. Second task - if market will break that area - then it probably will accelerate right to 1.41

Today we have to be extra-careful, since GDP release and US Debt turmoil - today is a last day for agreement about that.

 

[Sive Morten]

Hi Sive;
It has been a long time since i've asked something.
Are we seeing a drpo in the aud 4hour?
thanks for everything.

Sorry, Pal
I've seen your post only today, and probably my comment is too late. By price action you see that this was a DRPO - 11 bars of thrust, first penetration was shallow.
You was right.