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FOREX PRO Weekly July 30 - August 03, 2012

Discussion in 'Sive Morten- Currencies and Gold Video Analysis' started by Sive Morten, Jul 28, 2012.

  1. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    I've just copied this from previous thread, since many forumes were interested with this:

    Hi Craig,

    Probably I can ask FPA Administration to provide you your own part of forum for daily scalp signals. What do you think about it?
    Let me know if this will be interesting to you. 200 pips per day by scalp trading - this is indeed solid result. FPA have daily signals (Mr.Huskins), I write mostly on longer term perspective,
    so intraday scalp signals will be interesting for those who spend in front of computer whole day.
     
    #1 Sive Morten, Jul 28, 2012
    Last edited: Jul 30, 2012
  2. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    Monthly
    Monthly trend holds strongly bearish. Price continues to force significant support area 1.19-1.23 that held EUR twice from collapse – first time in 2008 when sub-prime crisis has started and second – in 2010 at beginning of Greece turmoil.
    Some fundamental thoughts
    So, first attempt to cross monthly 50% support has failed – price has returned not only above 1.2140, but even above 0.88 Fib support (I do not have it on this chart), although I suppose that this minor level should not been taken into consideration any more. Technically this has happened by support area, while fundamentally by comments of Mario Draghi – ECB Head. I have told about this yesterday and repeat here shortly again. This very often happens, when authorities do not know precisely what to do, and when they were not able to resolve problem without giving it a second thought – they turn to their favorite weapon – microphone. What they couldn’t do by deeds, they try to do by words. This could work and in fact, this works, as we’ve seen, but only on short term. Later investors will demand particular deeds to confirm words. If they will not come – the situation will become even worse. And effect from rhetoric rare lasts for a long time. EUR has not become more valuable, only because words of Draghi. And investors will understand this and euphoria will pass. As oftener rhetoric will appear without real deeds, as shorter and shorter will become an effect on the markets.
    Still, closer to the end of the year there could be some pause in dollar appreciation. On the first glance US problems much lighter that in Europe, but this is only on first glance. I have a feeling that US authorities do not have clear understanding what is going on, and they can’t precisely foresee and understand results of steps that they are taking currently and have taken already. They make these steps mostly because these steps worked previously and hence they have to be done in current environment. But they do not work as they did previously. These steps lead to much smaller effect and can’t increase pace of economy. In two worlds, they drive the train in fog. Nearest road is visible, but final point is blur. Now surplus president elections and, yes – debt ceil problems right in December 2012. Just imagine what will happen, if US budget will fall under sequestering (reducing of budget spending). What will happen with social and healthcare programs, with geopolitical pretensions? Life of whole country should change, they can’t live on credit anymore, but that is what they do for decades. That is what attracted many emigrants – high level of live, based on unreasonable consumption. Now they will have to forgo it, precisely the situation will force to do that. How it will come, what will happen? Nobody can answer on this.
    But let’s return to our analysis. Technically situation here has not changed. Our minimum target still is 1.16-1.17 area, based on analysis of quarterly chart of Dollar Index that we’ve made in Nov 2011. Index has 95% correlation with EUR/USD. Also this is AB=CD target of most recent pattern on current chart. Also take a look – this is significant support of 2005 as well – marked by yellow rectangle.

    Nearest Fib resistance is 1.2593, stronger area is monthly K-resistance 1.2934

    From long-term perspective market is entering into very, say, “dangerous” area, and it comes to it not at oversold as it was two times previously. If it will break it – this will be the road to 1.07-1.10 area or ultimately even to parity.

    [​IMG]

    Weekly
    Bearish trend still holds on weekly chart. Looks like during daily update we have forgotten a bit about weekly butterfly. Besides of butterfly, price still stands at 50% monthly long-term support and MPS2=1.2103. Market is not at oversold and overbought. Right at support price has formed pretty bullish engulfing pattern that engulfs even two previous weeks. Based on weekly chart we have to monitor two levels, at least on coming week. Fist one is a low of engulfing pattern 1.2042 – if market will take it, then engulfing pattern will fail and downward action could continue. Second is – 1.2550. This is nearest fib resistance and previous swing low. Also this level is important, because if butterfly has started to work – 0.382 is minimum target that it could reach. This is does not mean that price can’t move above it. This is just the nearest target and simultaneously is the first level when as butterfly could be treated as worked as downward move could reestablish. Oh yes, this is also an upward border of parallel channel.

    [​IMG]
    Daily
    I still think that current splash is more emotional rather than fundamental. That’s why it makes sense do not marry any position and take nearest targets. So, what do we have here? Trend turns bullish. Nice recovery from support – current swing up is greater than previous swing down, so we can’t totally deny possibility of upward continuation. Also do not forget – this swing is weekly engulfing pattern.
    Now price stands at solid resistance – previous swing low, Fib resistance and daily overbought, we can count for a bounce. Since this is first upward swing – bounce usually deep – 50% minimum. So this should not be surprise, if market will pass through WPP a bit lower. Still, here we have short-term bullish context, no bearish directional patterns. We will hope that market still has some upward momentum. Based on weekly analysis, price could reach 1.2550 – that is daily K-resistance and very close to WPR1.

    [​IMG]
    4-hour
    Trend is bullish here as well, and probably it will remain bullish even if market will show deep retracement. Although I’ve marked all Fib levels here – first one and first K-area are not so important for us, since market at overbought. First level that is worthy to our attention is 1.2220-1.2256. It’s a bit wide for K-support, but let it be Confluence. Also this area includes WPP and 50% support of thrusting bar. Next support is 1.2175
    [​IMG]

    60-min
    There is no much additional information here. Trend has turned bearish. One thing that I could find here is some sort of bearish wedge, acompanied by divergence at daily resistance and overbought. May be this pattern will trigger pullback, who knows.
    [​IMG]




    Conclusion:
    Long-term bearish sentiment still in play, but as current upward bounce was rather fast, market has some upward momentum, that makes possible move to 1.25 area. At least currently I see nothing on charts that could make it impossible.
    In short-term perspective we have bullish trend, and following by the same reasons about momentum, should focus on searching possibility to enter long. One thing that always has to be in our mind – take nearest targets, since current upward splash does not have any solid foundation.


    The technical portion of Sive's analysis owes a great deal to Joe DiNapoli's methods, and uses a number of Joe's proprietary indicators. Please note that Sive's analysis is his own view of the market and is not endorsed by Joe DiNapoli or any related companies.
     
  3. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    EUR/USD Daily Update, Tue 31, July 2012

    Good morning,
    so pullback that we've discussed has started and market has reached our first predefined area - around WPP.

    On daily time frame market now is not at overbought and forming some kind of bullish pennant. Overall short-term context holds bullish. But, as we've said, since this is first bounce with pretention on deeper retracement after solid bear trend - intraday retracement could be a bit deeper.

    On 4-hour chart trend is bearish. market now is showing respect of K-support+WPP+50% trusting bar support. So, what levels to watch for potential long-entry.

    We need hourly chart for that. First - if deeper retracement will happen, this could be either by Butterfly "Sell", or H&S pattern - both of them look ugly, but what could we do?
    1.27 extension of butterlfy stands slightly below K-support are, while 1.618 extension - at 1.2150.
    Speaking about H&S - two levels to watch for. First on is ~1.2325 - 0.618 resistsance of head swing. If we will be lucky and market still will born some harmony with this pattern - it should reach it to accomplish 1.618 ratio for this pattern. In this case, we can get downward AB=CD, that creates an Agreement with 1.2175 5/8 major Fib support.
    If market will accelerate above 1.2325 - this will mean that H&S fails (that is very often on hourly charts) In this case we should enter long at nearest retracement.

    So, if market will show deeper move down - 1.2150-1.2175 is an area to watch for as potential entry point. If price will break 1.2325 with some thrusting bars, then, probably upward move will continue right from current levels and we will have to enter at nearest 3/8 retracement.
     

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    #3 Sive Morten, Jul 28, 2012
    Last edited: Jul 31, 2012
  4. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    EUR/USD Daily Update, Wed 01, August 2012

    Good morning,
    price action develops as we've suggested yesterday, so I'll make just short update.
    On daily time frame we have new MPP at 1.2342 area that might be a resistance at first test. Applying classical approach to pennant target estimation we get the same 1.25-1.2550 area - daily K-resitance+WPR1 and Daily overbought.

    On 4 hour / hourly chart market has reached 1.2320 area. Now is a moment of truth - if price will fail here - we can get our AB=CD, pictured on 4-hour chart with target at Agreement 1.2175. This will be perfect area to enter long.
    If market will break this level, I mean 1.2326, then potential for H&S will fail (if we can call this substance as H&S at all) and we will have to use nearest Fib.support to enter long.

    So, today keep an eye on 1.2325 resistance level. By current price action, I think more chances that market will proceed higher.
     

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    #4 Sive Morten, Jul 28, 2012
    Last edited: Aug 1, 2012
  5. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    EUR/USD Daily Update, Thu 02, August 2012

    Good morning,

    In general market is moving according to our assumptions that retracement down should be deep, since this is the first hint on reversal on daily. Major rule tells - buy first AB=CD retracement after reversal swing. And that what we particular intend to do.
    On daily time frame nothing to comment - market is coiling inside of bullish flag.

    On 4-hour chart we said that if market will fail around 1.2325 - then we should get downward AB=CD pattern. And that is what we can see currently. By forming 3 side-by side stop grabbers right at 1.2325 price has shown nice downwward acceleration. Since currently price is forcing k-support area for the second time - this area has not become stronger. I suppose, that we will still get our AB-CD. From that standpoint keep a close look at 1.2175 for reversal patterns on lower time frames - 30m, 15m.

    On houlry chart we can clear see our bullish daily flag. 1.2175 also is a lower border of it.
     

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    #5 Sive Morten, Jul 28, 2012
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  6. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    EUR/USD Daily Update, Fri 03, August 2012

    Hello everybody,
    as we said, when EUR has shown this bounce on daily time frame - ECB has started to use their favorite weapon - microphone. But this is double-edged sword, since if investors will not get any definite plan - EUR could return right back as fast as it has jumped up. That has partially happened yesterday. Mr. Draghi has given nothing definite except bond market interventions, but this hardly could be callsed as crisis exiting strategy.

    Technically, bullish context on daily time frame still holds, but it has been hurted significantly by yesterday spike. Since it could be treated as failure breakout of flag pattern and W&R on 4-hour chart.

    On 4-hour chart this splike has destroyed our initial AB=CD pattern. I've drawn another one, but it couldn't be applied for target estimation since C point is higher than A. Next support is around 1.2112-1.2125 - WPS1 and 1.618 extension of this pattern. Trend is bearish here.

    Hourly chart shows that this also will be a lower border of the flag.

    So, if you've entered long around 1.2175, then you should have some small profit with it. Today is Friday and NFP release - better to tight stops or even move it to b/e, if your entry level allows you to do that. I hope that price action with NFP will give us more clarification for Weekend analysis.
    But again, yesterday's price action had solid negative impact on perspective of bullish continuation on daily EUR. Since this is just a retracement inside of longer-term bear trend, this is not absolutely unexpected issue.
     

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    #6 Sive Morten, Jul 28, 2012
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  7. Venelin

    Venelin Master Sergeant

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    Thank you Sive! Great and awesome analysis! In some words in Montly part I percept Lenin`s words but in a good way :) Thanks again!
     
  8. Venelin

    Venelin Master Sergeant

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    On the political part of the statement I think that life in the whole country (US) has changed dramatically already, but common people do not realize it yet(still within the matrix)...After the elections the s*&t will hit the fan anyway,no matter who wins it-(probably Obama)!And then-who knows! We`ll act accordingly on the week $ ;)
     
  9. WaveRider

    WaveRider Sergeant

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    Sive, I'm one of the appox. 1400 veiws your daily videos get. I'm wondering...
    1. Has your trading analysis become more accurate since you've been posting on FPA?
    2. Has your method changed at all or have you tuned up your method since you started with FPA?
    3. You've said you trade equities and currency futures more than forex. Is there any real difference in your analysis with other kinds of charts?
    4. I see in your demo account statement, you traded other pairs besides the EUR/USD. What pairs do you analyze and do the other pairs behave differently enough that it alters your analysis method or can you keep the same method for all charts and pairs?

    Thanks in advance
     
  10. squidge42

    squidge42 Corporal

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    Sive i know you don't use the 25x5 in your analaysis - but cant help notice it's been bumping up off it from 1.212, and it looks like another could have just started
     

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