FOREX PRO Weekly June 04-08, 2012

Triantus Shango

Sergeant Major
Messages
1,372
damian, re. the trade you mentioned as an example, i just would like to make the following observations:

regardless of whether or not there is a K-area:

1- if you use the bollinger bands, and price is still walking the band when reaching whatever K-area or agreement or whatever level someone believes is significant, then stay with the trade or at least do no initiate a contra-trade;

2- observe (1) if price has not crossed MACD Predictor yet;

3- if price is starting to drift away from band std dev 3 or 2 towards band std dev 1, start getting ready for a possible swtich in sentiment/direction;

4- if price crosses MACD Predictor and continues to drift towards mid BB, or if mid BB is reached and then price crosses MACD Predictor (even better) AND other TIs such as DPO or slow Stoch also show a turn in direction, then start thinking about initiating the trade BUT

5- always by taking into consideration the price's position relative to 100 and 200 MAs and key fib levels (this defines a risk context), meaning that if price is walking the band, for ex., but finds SPPT or RSST at 100 or 200 MA, consider initiating a trade AS LONG AS other TIs and fib levels paint a picture that makes sense; trade risk at that point is well defined; if wrong, then continue walking the band.

had you done this, you would have let it ride 'til 253x, then reversed from there.

i cannot emphasize enough how important and useful bollinger bands are. cheers.
 

asif faryad

Sergeant
Messages
194
Wow, what a great discussion here. Great guys!!!
Btw Asif, good to find that you are quite active now in forum. Any reason, dude?;)
Thanks and Best Regards
Hi Rashidin,

I am always watching on this Forum as an obersrver :) most times... As my trading 90% is based on psychology and 10% on my own system which is a combination of Sives anyalis (My edge) and my own observations of price action based on fib levels..It works pretty good,but i do not once i am in look at to many views etc expressed as at a sub consciousness level can make you alter a trade,so its part of my trading plan that once in i look at doing other things and check back just to manage the trade a few days later.. or the trade manages it self by the S/L i have put on but this happens but not that much on my trading plan as S/L are fairly high based on the monthly chart.
As also i have moved and spend a lot of time travelling setting up new home..

Also my trading is extremely a very simple trading plan based on myself as a trader... I am not a scalper (As found chasing 20/30 pips to stressful) I trade on the monthly time frames to dertimine my edge and look at the weekly depending on how the trade is developing to manage my profit which i have detailed on Damians post..

Asif.
 

MidnightRun

Sergeant
Messages
186
damian, re. the trade you mentioned as an example, i just would like to make the following observations:

regardless of whether or not there is a K-area:

1- if you use the bollinger bands, and price is still walking the band when reaching whatever K-area or agreement or whatever level someone believes is significant, then stay with the trade or at least do no initiate a contra-trade;

2- observe (1) if price has not crossed MACD Predictor yet;

3- if price is starting to drift away from band std dev 3 or 2 towards band std dev 1, start getting ready for a possible swtich in sentiment/direction;

4- if price crosses MACD Predictor and continues to drift towards mid BB, or if mid BB is reached and then price crosses MACD Predictor (even better) AND other TIs such as DPO or slow Stoch also show a turn in direction, then start thinking about initiating the trade BUT

5- always by taking into consideration the price's position relative to 100 and 200 MAs and key fib levels (this defines a risk context), meaning that if price is walking the band, for ex., but finds SPPT or RSST at 100 or 200 MA, consider initiating a trade AS LONG AS other TIs and fib levels paint a picture that makes sense; trade risk at that point is well defined; if wrong, then continue walking the band.

had you done this, you would have let it ride 'til 253x, then reversed from there.

i cannot emphasize enough how important and useful bollinger bands are. cheers.
Triantus,
Do I get it right that you have several sets of Bollinger Bands with different standard deviations?
Thanks
 

Louis123321

Corporal
Messages
174
Asif, Sive, I would really like to hear your take on the current situation on EURUSD. Up or down? Detailed. ;)

I say up to 1.26, 1.262/3 max, before real downtrend will continue, this only seems like logical next step, as market did stop at valid confluence level which is only just below 1.24450 and it's also even trying to push back up to 1.24450 level again, so technically Sive's analysis was not far off.
 

asif faryad

Sergeant
Messages
194
Asif, Sive, I would really like to hear your take on the current situation on EURUSD. Up or down? Detailed. ;)

I say up to 1.26, 1.262/3 max, before real downtrend will continue, this only seems like logical next step, as market did stop at valid confluence level which is only just below 1.24450 and it's also even trying to push back up to 1.24450 level again, so technically Sive's analysis was not far off.

Ok Louis,

My trading plan at present on my edge is not doing anything just sitting on my hands as Sive would phrase it :)

I will monitor the price as is more probable that will reach 12580 12600 areas i will be in at this price with a s/l (sell)at about 12950/13000

and managing the trade will look at 12250 as a min 12000 as a longer term if it reaches 170 pips profit i will reduce the risk by setting my S/L at break even and enjoy the movie locking profits according to my plan..

Thats it!
 

fan

Private
Messages
10
I don't think it's time to enter long. On the contract, trend now is becomging bearing, we shall enter short when retracement occure.
 

asif faryad

Sergeant
Messages
194
Asif, Thank you for the extent of your response. If I understand correctly then you do not cut your losses short? As per your commets "I do not alter a trade" I tend to think so, please correct me if I am wrong. I support and hence understand the importance of not letting a profit go to a loss and trailing a stop. However If I find myself on a loosing trade..or what I think it could be a loosing I tend to look for a way out. One way is by putting a time stop (3 period rule) .But another way is to analyze Dynamic pressure and some other factors. Actually..is no that that much of analyzing..it's just..that..when it is meant to be a good trade..it works well and pretty fast..it shuold be easy , just as you said,..so if market is not developing with ease in the way that would lock me profits..and I start loosing..I want out. My chances are less than before, market is not working the way I expected to work (Of course I do not feel betrayed by the market, I do not receive this information as painful, It's just a signal..from the market..that this edge..is not working..as simple as that) After all..when we hide our stop beneath 5/8 fibnode when we have entered at the 3/8, is to protect it, meaning...a retracement is expected so we can get out at a reasonable price if market don't go crazy. Let me put today's trade as an example. Earlier this morning I said that if EUR/USD would respect 4 hour K resistance I would wait for the 15 minute trend to go bearish and sell a retracement. This image show the context time frame (4 hour chart) and the proper K-resistance area around 1,2495
View attachment 5571
Of course we see three 4-hour bars now coz the picture has been taken just 10 min ago. For the original picture/post look earlier in this thread.
So, big bull candle closed at k-resistance. and then we saw consolidation. During this consolidation, 15 M time frame showed a nice crossing of the MACDP giving a sell signal, as shown in the picture below.
View attachment 5572
I entered some pips below .382 retracement at 1,2485 (where the red horizantal triangle stands). with a Stop loss Above the high at 1,2512.
This trade is based on the 4h time frame (im selling a 4 hour k resistance) so the 3 period rule applies on the 4 hour chart..meaning the time stop was 12 hours long, if after 12 hours i was not on the winning side I would look for a way out. However, I expected (coz i wanna see a nice quick follow thru of my edges) some fast reaction on 15 M chart aswell, So I apply 3 period rule on both (being less stric on lower TF and absolutely stric on higer TF). After 3 full 15M periods of entry I was barely on the winning side, two periods later I exited the position at 1,2502. Why did I exit? I've written down the reasons on my trading diary "Cutted loss short, no follow thru of minesweeper entry. Weak dynamic pressure, close above .618". I had a few other valid points at the time I took the choice(daily and weekly oversold weakening chances of 4 hour k resistance to work + last 4 hour candle closed above 4 hour expansion targets + juicy area right above)..but I will take those 3 as the only ones coz they are the ones who made it to the diary.
Market continued moving up..hence I "saved" myself 10 pips per contract.
Given trading is a probability game, the chances of having a winning trade with a good ratio at the point where market had close above .618 where much fewer than before.trade did not worked as expected..reaching .618 is expected..that's why SL is above the high. I take the trade at .382 coz I really want to be in but I know .618 is very much expected since previous move of minesweeper technique will always be much greater and carry strong momentum, but certainly I do not expect a close above .618.
I am not always right as in the picture below, but I like playing the rules. And one of the rules kinda says "if it aint looking pretty , look for a way out..cut your loss short"

View attachment 5573

Sive master we really need you in this conversation I think, :D .
Morning Mate,,

Yes thats correct as ALL MY decisions !are based BEFORE i enter NOT AFTER so i will not have any issues on what to do once in...

1::how much am i prepared to spend to findout if i am correct i then have a look at trade and dertimine my lot size..

2: Once i am in the minuim i expect is 1:1 ratio as soon as the trade reaches reduce the risk to 0.

3: check at the end of the day and manage my trade by locking in profits..

4: there is a random distribution of wins and losses this is impossible to gauge,this does not mean the edge is not working...Keep going.... ( i use this to develop my stamina... yeah SAD!!! LOL )

4: ONCE IN I TRY AND AVOID THE COMEDY CHANNELS AND FORUMS AS ON A SUB CONSCIOUSNESS WAY YOU CAN END UP ALTERING THE TRADE (SO WHEN I AM QUITE ON THE THREAD MEANS I AM IN A TRADE :) )


5:::: Enjoy my day by PURSUING my passions .... THATS IT I KNOW ITS A SAD PLAN LOL LOL BUT WORKS FOR ME :)
 

rashidin5178

Sergeant
Messages
244
Btw guys,
Watch for DRPO buy on M30. Whether it will become reality or not, who knows?
Thanks and Best Regards
 
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