Forex FOREX PRO WEEKLY, June 06 - 10, 2022

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
16,280
Morning everybody,

So, in general, what we would like to achieve yesterday - we've got it. Daily bullish grabber stands in place, and EUR shows nice bounce up from 1H XOP target. Still few negative moments exist as well. First is, we do not have the same grabber on DXY and EUR Futures.
EUR_d_08_06_22.png


Second - on 4H chart we have few minor bearish grabbers. Yes, this could fail, but this is the risk factor by far. Here I draw the butterfly pattern that we've discussed yesterday. If our suggestion on short-term bullish sentiment is correct - 1.0830 target is the nearest one.

Now about pleasant moments. First is, H&S here shows signs of failure. It is irrational when price can't reach the neckline and turns to upside bounce. Overall action is very slow as well. Finally on the GBP - downside H&S has failed already. It tells that market stands in "culmination" point as I call it - the place where you get best risk/reward ratio and where you have to make decision on position taking. It doesn't guarantee success, but it gives the minimal risk.
EUR_4h_08_06_22.png


On 1H chart bounce from XOP looks nice and market is making minor 5/8 pullback - this is the decision moment. From the fundamental point of view - announcement tomorrow of PEPP programme closing and hint on rate change in July also could support EUR.
EUR_1h_08_06_22.png


Thus, we've shown you everything, the question is 50 pips risk. Now decide whether this trade worth it or not. ;)
 

FreddyFX

Sergeant
Messages
409
I am sticking to my vision that this will drop sooner than later. This whole market is without a clue and only tries to make people loose their money. Matters will NEVER get solid in the EZ, too many captains on one ship there.
 

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
16,280
I am sticking to my vision that this will drop sooner than later. This whole market is without a clue and only tries to make people loose their money. Matters will NEVER get solid in the EZ, too many captains on one ship there.
Yes, Freddy,
This is actually our view either. The difference just in a time scale. Your vision more relates to mid-to-long term, while here setup is for daily/intraday. This is just a bounce for few weeks.
 

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
16,280
Morning guys,

It seems that EUR is inspired a bit with coming ECB meeting. Price shows nice bounce from the level that we've discussed yesterday. I congrats those who already have positions with b/e stops. But, it is not too late to consider another entry chance.
On daily chart, by the way we've got 2nd bullish grabber in a row:
EUR_d_09_06_22.png


Bearish grabbers have been erased, which is logical. Here we watch for the nearest target of 1.08-1.0830, based on the butterfly. Invalidation point is the same - butterfly's lows.
EUR_4h_09_06_22.png


On 1H chart market turns to the pullback. Obviously 1.07 area looks like most attractive to consider long entry - two 5/8 Fib levels and OP Agreement. But, since market is too unstable now, focused on ECB meeting, we do not exclude chance of upward reversal at 3/8 + COP target, when it stands right now.

Thus, if you intend to go long - think about position split. To stay focused on 1.07 is not forbidden of course as well.
EUR_1h_09_06_22.png
 

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
16,280
Morning everybody,

So, it was dramatic performance yesterday. In general ECB comments were supportive to the EUR and even slightly more hawkish than expected, which explains proper upside reaction. Later, EUR has collapsed, although I do not see clear driving factor for that. Probably this was a combination of some - speculators' profit taking, US interest yields, aiming higher and accident on the US LPG plant, that is one of the major supplier for the EU.

But, whatever reason is, daily trend has turned bearish, and daily/intraday context as well, while in a longer-term, some chances still exist that it might be daily AB-CD upside action and now EUR starts the BC leg. The reversal bar has been formed here, that suggests deeper action in nearest days:
EUR_d_10_06_22.png


On 4H chart market hits OP of a wide AB=CD pattern. Now price stands at the same K-support area. Supposedly some bounce should happen here. Still, with the reversal bar on daily and steep sell-off here, chances of downside continuation to XOP are significant. XOP agrees with the major 5/8 level of 1.0516:

EUR_4h_10_06_22.png


On 1H chart we correctly identified the entry point, as jump has started right after AB-CD retracement, but missed with the target as EUR was not able to reach 1.0830 and stopped at 1H XOP target around 1.0770.
In general, downside reversal here is not a surprising moment - recall our analysis of weekly chart and weekly K-area, but we thought that EUR still could reach target few pips higher.

Now, as price stand at 4H support area, we could watch for the bounce up. Scalp traders could consider short entry around Fib resistance levels. Just be aware of CPI report today.
EUR_1h_10_06_22.png
 
Top