Sive Morten
Special Consultant to the FPA
- Messages
- 18,551
Morning everybody,
So, in general, what we would like to achieve yesterday - we've got it. Daily bullish grabber stands in place, and EUR shows nice bounce up from 1H XOP target. Still few negative moments exist as well. First is, we do not have the same grabber on DXY and EUR Futures.
Second - on 4H chart we have few minor bearish grabbers. Yes, this could fail, but this is the risk factor by far. Here I draw the butterfly pattern that we've discussed yesterday. If our suggestion on short-term bullish sentiment is correct - 1.0830 target is the nearest one.
Now about pleasant moments. First is, H&S here shows signs of failure. It is irrational when price can't reach the neckline and turns to upside bounce. Overall action is very slow as well. Finally on the GBP - downside H&S has failed already. It tells that market stands in "culmination" point as I call it - the place where you get best risk/reward ratio and where you have to make decision on position taking. It doesn't guarantee success, but it gives the minimal risk.
On 1H chart bounce from XOP looks nice and market is making minor 5/8 pullback - this is the decision moment. From the fundamental point of view - announcement tomorrow of PEPP programme closing and hint on rate change in July also could support EUR.
Thus, we've shown you everything, the question is 50 pips risk. Now decide whether this trade worth it or not.
So, in general, what we would like to achieve yesterday - we've got it. Daily bullish grabber stands in place, and EUR shows nice bounce up from 1H XOP target. Still few negative moments exist as well. First is, we do not have the same grabber on DXY and EUR Futures.
Second - on 4H chart we have few minor bearish grabbers. Yes, this could fail, but this is the risk factor by far. Here I draw the butterfly pattern that we've discussed yesterday. If our suggestion on short-term bullish sentiment is correct - 1.0830 target is the nearest one.
Now about pleasant moments. First is, H&S here shows signs of failure. It is irrational when price can't reach the neckline and turns to upside bounce. Overall action is very slow as well. Finally on the GBP - downside H&S has failed already. It tells that market stands in "culmination" point as I call it - the place where you get best risk/reward ratio and where you have to make decision on position taking. It doesn't guarantee success, but it gives the minimal risk.
On 1H chart bounce from XOP looks nice and market is making minor 5/8 pullback - this is the decision moment. From the fundamental point of view - announcement tomorrow of PEPP programme closing and hint on rate change in July also could support EUR.
Thus, we've shown you everything, the question is 50 pips risk. Now decide whether this trade worth it or not.