Forex FOREX PRO WEEKLY, June 10 - 14, 2019

Deltoid88

Sergeant
Messages
167
Update on EUR. It looks like wave 5 of wave 5 on EUR started after completion of triangle in wave 4, so we are headed for new high above 1.1347. However, when that new high is reached I expect sharp downside action to start because wave 3 of much higher scale could be under way. New high above 1.1347 should be capped by length of wave 3 of wave 5 on 1.1415 level which can be used as stop loss level for short positions. I expect new high to be placed in range 1.1355-1.1390, not higher then that.

1 H chart:

EURUSDkH1.png


1st position, long entry in zone 1.1320-1.1335, SL zone = 1.1289-1.1305, TP zone = 1.1355-1.138
2nd main position, sell entry in zone 1.1355-1.1390, SL=1.1415, TP zone < 1.11
 

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
12,979
Morning guys,

So it seems that our GBP setup starts to work... On EUR market mostly is coiling around the same area and creates no attractive setups by far. In fact, situation stands tricky here. Technically market is coming to strong resistance area - 1376-1390 K level. Fundamentally - everybody now waits for June Fed meeting and hope that J. Powell hints on rate cut. In fact, now market already prices in 80% probability of rate cut in July. Now you could imagine what will happen, if no rate cut follows.

Personally, I have mixed feeling about it. In fact, my view is US stats is not as bad as it shows in media and I'm not sure that we will get rate cut. So, tricky situation around rate happens when market stands at major resistance. This could be deadly combination. In addition to this, D. Trump recently accused EU and other countries, that they artificially devalued their currencies to USD. So, full house...

This makes me stay aside for awhile from taking any new long position on EUR - upside potential is limited 30, maybe 50 pips max, with chance to get collapse at any moment:
eur_d_12_06_19.png


Most probable that retracement starts as soon as market hits our intraday targets. Mostly the stand in 1355 area, expect last one AB-CD (blue) with 1385 target, but anyway - inside daily K-resistance. Here we already have a divergence and price action takes the shape of wedge pattern:
eur_4h_12_06_19.png


On 1H chart another minor OP target of our Friday's reverse H&S pattern also stands around the same 1355 area. In general, market could form upside butterfly and finalize upside action and all the targets. Thus, if you have bearish view - watch for bearish reversal patterns around major daily resistance. Bulls should stay aside probably and wait for retracement to get suitable entry level:
eur_1h_12_06_19.png
 

Deltoid88

Sergeant
Messages
167
Update on EUR. Triangle from my previous post proved wrong, but bullish wave 5 still stands on the table. It looks like wave 4 is now finished, it was ABC correction 3 3
5 structure. EUR looks very attractive to buy in 1.1280-1.13 area, and to chase one more higher high after which I expect strong downside action to start.

1H chart: Look at recent upside action, all 5 waves.

EURUSDkH1.png


15 MIN chart: Full wave count in wave 4 correction, 3 3 5 structure.

EURUSDkM15.png


How to trade this?

1st position, long entry in zone = 1.128-1.13, SL=1.1250, TP zone = 1.1355-1.1375
2nd position, sell entry in zone = 1.1355-1.1375, SL=1.1410, TP zone < 1.11
 

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
12,979
Morning guys,

So, our suspicions on EUR weakness were confirmed, as market was not able even to complete intraday 1355 targets that were standing in distance of 20 pips above the market. As a result, we've got bearish reversal session daily EUR. It means that 1320 area hardly become the level where market will turn up again and we more probable deeper retracement, somewhere to daily K-area around 1256:
eur_d_13_06_19.png


On 4H chart we have bearish reversal swing as well, but also "222" Buy. Both these patterns suggest deep upside bounce now, thus, we watch for 1322 level as possible target of the retracement.
eur_4h_13_06_19.png


On 1H chart we have downside extension. OP is already completed - it creates Agreement with 1290 level, btw, so another reason for stronger upside bounce. XOP coincides with daily K-support. Thus, 1256 is our primary level where we could consider long entry and will watch for bullish signs.
eur_1h_13_06_19.png

That's being said our plan is - 1325 bounce first and action to 1256 second.
 

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
12,979
Morning guys,

So daily reversal session works as EUR dropped below 1.1290 level. Now we're coming to final point of our tactical trading plan - 1256 K-support on daily chart. Take a look that here we also have MACDP line, so will keep an eye on bullish grabber as usual:
eur_d_14_06_19.png


At the same time no deep upside retracement to 1322 has happened, and it means that now we need to consider different pattern. IMO we could get 3-Drive "Buy" that finish downside action to hourly XOP and K-support area. We already see wedge shape and minor butterfly inside. Both features are typical for 3-Drive:
eur_1h_14_06_19.png


In general, 1256 is attractive area from risk standpoint - 3-Drive, XOP and K-support. Chances on 25-35 pips technical bounce at first touch are solid, so it significantly reduce overall risk, should let us move stops at breakeven and we could consider this area for long entry, I suppose.
 
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