FOREX PRO Weekly June 18-22, 2012

[Sive Morten]

Hi Sive,

Do you remember, last week I asked you a few naive questions about acronyms you use (WPP, WPR1, etc.). You've pointed me out the FPA Forex Military School. So, I went to the School and have done my homework. I've read only two chapters (10 and 15) and I'm amazed how much they explained to me. You can believe or not, but before you have posted this analysis I 've drawn "my own" MPP, MPR1, MPS1, WPP, WPR1 and WPS1 and I've planned my trade for next week. The plan is:
1) Don't trade in Monday according to Greece elections,
2) Wait for retracement to WPP (1.2582),
3) Put BUY STOP order at 1.2615 with SL@1.2580 and TP@1.2715 (just bellow WPR1=1.2722).

You Can't even imagine how proud of myself I was reading your analysis
Thank you for FPA Forex Military School. It's really big deal. It's the most comprehensible material concerning FX I've ever read. Even that english isn't my mother tongue. I've add FPA Forex Military School to my Favorities and I gona read it throughout.

I'd be really grateful for any comments to my plan.

Hi Marky,
This is great that FPA work appears useful to you. In general your plan is correct, but better do not do it blindly. We still need one more puzzle part - price action on Monday morning. When we will see it, it will become clear - is our plan is still valid or not.

 

[finyan]

Thanks for your analyze. Seems that you are simply using google translator for other languages. Hard to read.

 

[Lolly Tripathy]

Thank you very much For the weekly analysis and daily video..
WIsh you GoodLuck for future..

 

[Venelin]

Hi Sive and all,
We forgot about 4h butterfly -127,2% reached and also WPR1. Do you think market will finish 100% ab=cd and then 161.8%ext.?
Thanks!

 

[Sive Morten]

Hi Sive and all,
We forgot about 4h butterfly -127,2% reached and also WPR1. Do you think market will finish 100% ab=cd and then 161.8%ext.?
Thanks!

Hi Venelin,
we didn't forget
Very probable, since they are close to each other.

 

[onenikos]

Dear Sive and All
Sorry for not have posted something earlier, but currently I am at sea and communications are not constant (I captain a sailing charter boat on occation). It seems that rescent Greek elections outcome jive with your technical analysis. (see also post at Huskins). A government will be formed from austerity pro parties that while constitute the minority on a % basis of the vote (arround 42%), due to Greek electoral vote law they win the majority of seats in the parliament ! With a very activist opposition, 1.5 mill unemployed and 4 mill under the poverty level (on a total of roughly 10 mill population) one can easily forecast the future after the initial "relief". The 1.2775 resistance should indeed be watched closely, or even a little higher, before the problems start mounting in. Problems mean not only Greece, but as I said before the mounting problems that if not resolved fast, threat the disolving of the Eurozone. In any case i think that the next three months will be very interesting ones.
My best regards to all

 

[Lolly Tripathy]

1hr bullish

4hr bearish
1
2
which one is correct?

 

[Aldo Colombo]

Well, bullish target was approached but not quite hit by the first move on Monday. Now market has moved below MPP and found support around our "buy" zone (1.2580), though not because of 3-drive sell I guess. Is the move to 1.277 still to be expected? BTW, the fall after the upward gap resembles a lot the one of the previous week.

 

[Triantus Shango]

3-drive sell on H4 (drive 2 complete)

well... the 3-drive sell on H1 looks particularly mutated, i.e. not beautiful. that being said, there is a much more harmonic 3-drive sell on H4 currently building up possibly to the 3 drive. i've put numbers and letters on the chart where the 1st and 2nd drives are and where the AB=CD structure is.

the blue and aqua lines are the fib retracements and as you can see, drive 2 came in right around the 127.2 fib retracement of drive 1.

the yellow dashed line is a fib extension structure.

the red line is the potential projection of where the 3rd drive will be (along that red line). so we have 127.2 retracement of drive 2 come in at approx. 2800 (aqua), which coincides with the 161.8 node of the previous (blue) fib retrace structure. also, the 2nd fib retrace structure (aqua) has 161.8 retrace at the same level as the 100 fib extension (yellow) around 2860 approx.

however, considering the negative news continuously pouring forth out of europe re spain and so on, i would be amazed to see this 3-drive sell actually complete. but then again, i'm amazed every day. ;-)

Well, bullish target was approached but not quite hit by the first move on Monday. Now market has moved below MPP and found support around our "buy" zone (1.2580), though not because of 3-drive sell I guess. Is the move to 1.277 still to be expected? BTW, the fall after the upward gap resembles a lot the one of the previous week.

 

[Joshnix]

Sive thank you again for your posts. It helps me keep tabs on my own analysis. I have learned a geat deal from following you. My plan after Sunday's open was to wait and see what it wanted to do. I was asleep while it went to 1.2748 or else I would have sold the gap (piercing the 38.2% resistance on the weekly) I placed a buy at 1.2575 and a sl @ 1.2555 behind confluence support. I have a TP1.2989 but will adjust as needed in case it only wants to reach the 127% extension target instead of the confluence resistance around 1.300. Again trading my own plan but your posts help keep me focused.

Thanks,
Josh