Sive Morten
Special Consultant to the FPA
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Hi Nicole
today's Monday - all neccesary information in weekly research in the beginning of this thread
The first update will be only tomorrow.
FOREX PRO Weekly June 20 - 24, 2011
- Thread starter Sive Morten
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Hi Nicole
today's Monday - all neccesary information in weekly research in the beginning of this thread
The first update will be only tomorrow.
onewithzachy
Private, 1st Class
- Messages
- 36
Dear Mr. Morten,
Guess I have to apologize to you that I didn't read your analysis very carefully.
That upward move on New York Opening caught me off guard.
Now I'm busy scratching my head.
:err:
I guess is right what they say, TRADE THE MARKET NOT THE FORECAST.
To FPA admin : the smilies doesn't works.
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Not sure this will work as different platforms are going to have differing quotes on spot forex.
This topic and question seems to be exhausted and for anyone who has not read the numerous responses on this, draw the tools on your charts and you will get the same numbers. If you can not do that, then you need to rethink whether you should be trading at all, because this analysis is not about handholding. Mr. Sive gives his take based on Dinapoli levels and associated technical analysis, it is up to us to take that in, and if you are like me you try to do your own analysis and check it with Sive's since he has more experience and is generally great with his outlooks. Sorry to rant but pouring through 80 comments a week asking about different numbers is aggravating to me.
jerry mtini
Private
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- 12
what time
Sorry Sie, what time will you post in the morning?
rgds
Hi Nicole
today's Monday - all neccesary information in weekly research in the beginning of this thread
The first update will be only tomorrow.
Sorry Sie, what time will you post in the morning?
rgds
Sive Morten
Special Consultant to the FPA
- Messages
- 18,655
Geert Anthonis
Private, 1st Class
- Messages
- 33
Simple question but might still be very important in view of the current situation
Hi Sive or anybody else who might know,
Does anyone know when the Greek parlement is having its confidence (or no-confidence, if you like) vote?
I have now been looking all over the place even the website of the parlement itself. A lot of info there inn English except for the schedule for today that is only in Greek, which I unfortunately can not read. Bloomberg mentions late on Tuesday. Somewhere else I found Tuesday 12 am but they did not mention the time zone.
So if anyone reads this and knows the exact time and where to look or the result may I (we) ask to maybe be so kind as to post it here.
Thanks in advance.
Hi Sive or anybody else who might know,
Does anyone know when the Greek parlement is having its confidence (or no-confidence, if you like) vote?
I have now been looking all over the place even the website of the parlement itself. A lot of info there inn English except for the schedule for today that is only in Greek, which I unfortunately can not read. Bloomberg mentions late on Tuesday. Somewhere else I found Tuesday 12 am but they did not mention the time zone.
So if anyone reads this and knows the exact time and where to look or the result may I (we) ask to maybe be so kind as to post it here.
Thanks in advance.
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Sive Morten
Special Consultant to the FPA
- Messages
- 18,655
EUR/USD Daily Update, Tue 21, June 2011
Good morning,
our first expectation has been accomplished - market has reach hourly 1.618 target at 1.4330 area (1.4370 on spot FX). So, now the major task is to determine - will it turn to the downside or could continue up a bit further.
Daily
Speaking about this time frame, I will not be very nervous (from bearish perspective), even if market will reach 1.4418 - 0.618 Fib resistance . Yes, it's a bit extended retracement, but it's acceptable.
But if market will move above 1.450-1.4550. This will mean something different and smell like shift in momentum. If this will happen, probably we will return to discussion of med-term Butterfly "Sell" with 1.52 target.
On 4-hour chart we see, that market could turn to greater AB-CD, that makes an Agreement precisely with 1.4418 Fib resistance. We do not know definitely. Hence, it gives us a rule to enter short we accomplishement of two events:
1. Market moves below Confluence reisistance at 1.4270
2. Market moves below pivot point and shows some bearish reversal pattern.
Only if this will happen we could enter short.
While market stands above pivot and does not show any bearish patterns - don't be short.
On hourly chart we see divergence and small, but important nuance - the target of most recent AB=CD pattern at 1.4357 and currently market is forming bullish stop grabber.
It tells, that even market will move to 1.4360 it will not neccesary mean the continuation to upside. This could be just accomplishement of AB-CD and stop grabber target - that are previous highs. So, don't be confused by this potential move up.
If market will hold above it, well, then probably we will see 1.4420.
So, that's being said:
enter short only if market will move below pivot and show some bearish pattern.
Second, if even market will reach 1.4420 it will not break bearish bias yet.
Good morning,
our first expectation has been accomplished - market has reach hourly 1.618 target at 1.4330 area (1.4370 on spot FX). So, now the major task is to determine - will it turn to the downside or could continue up a bit further.
Daily
Speaking about this time frame, I will not be very nervous (from bearish perspective), even if market will reach 1.4418 - 0.618 Fib resistance . Yes, it's a bit extended retracement, but it's acceptable.
But if market will move above 1.450-1.4550. This will mean something different and smell like shift in momentum. If this will happen, probably we will return to discussion of med-term Butterfly "Sell" with 1.52 target.
On 4-hour chart we see, that market could turn to greater AB-CD, that makes an Agreement precisely with 1.4418 Fib resistance. We do not know definitely. Hence, it gives us a rule to enter short we accomplishement of two events:
1. Market moves below Confluence reisistance at 1.4270
2. Market moves below pivot point and shows some bearish reversal pattern.
Only if this will happen we could enter short.
While market stands above pivot and does not show any bearish patterns - don't be short.
On hourly chart we see divergence and small, but important nuance - the target of most recent AB=CD pattern at 1.4357 and currently market is forming bullish stop grabber.
It tells, that even market will move to 1.4360 it will not neccesary mean the continuation to upside. This could be just accomplishement of AB-CD and stop grabber target - that are previous highs. So, don't be confused by this potential move up.
If market will hold above it, well, then probably we will see 1.4420.
So, that's being said:
enter short only if market will move below pivot and show some bearish pattern.
Second, if even market will reach 1.4420 it will not break bearish bias yet.
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onewithzachy
Private, 1st Class
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- 36
I'm still bearish but don't know how deep
Good Morning too, mr. Morten
Daily is a bearish EW corrective, if it continue moves up = I will confuse.
And it's show clearly on 4 hour.
And On Daily - an Up Moves on Monday NY opening which is a EW Motive wave A of corrective.
That was just my opinion.
But I think this will moves very very very slow, coz we have several announcement including FOMC.
Thanks Mr. Morten
read me edit.
Good Morning too, mr. Morten
Daily is a bearish EW corrective, if it continue moves up = I will confuse.
And it's show clearly on 4 hour.
And On Daily - an Up Moves on Monday NY opening which is a EW Motive wave A of corrective.
That was just my opinion.
But I think this will moves very very very slow, coz we have several announcement including FOMC.
Thanks Mr. Morten
read me edit.
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Sive Morten
Special Consultant to the FPA
- Messages
- 18,655
EUR/USD Daily Update, Wed 22, June 2011
Hi everybody,
Yesterday market has hit 1.4350 area and accomplished another AB=CD.
Now it stands a bit higher, and there could be 2 possibilities -
1. market could continue move further to 1.4420 area for reaching the target of greater AB=CD
2. Market could reverse down right now.
I do not speak about further continuation to upside, beyond 1.4450, because it's a bit early for that.
So, if you're bullish - wait breakout of 1.45-1.4550 area. Only after that we can return to discussing of Butterfly with 1.52 target.
If you're bearish, there is very important moment on daily time frame -
MACDP comes close to price action. And just above the market stands Agreement at 1.4418. Currently we still have bearish bias - daily trend is bearish, weekly trend is bearish.
But if market will break 1.4418 it destroy at once a lot of bearish points - break strong resistance, erase long black bar, shift trend to bullish. So, for bears 1.4420 is a crucial area. Hence, that's the area were our stop should be placed (actually 1.4420+40 pips at least).
So you may act threefold:
1. Enter short here and place stop above Agreement;
2. Wait when&if market will reach 1.4420 and then look for possibility to enter short;
3. Wait for further confirmation from market of bearish bias. Particularly moving below pivot point and enter on some shallow upside retracement on hourly chart.
Or combine different ways with smaller lot.
Hi everybody,
Yesterday market has hit 1.4350 area and accomplished another AB=CD.
Now it stands a bit higher, and there could be 2 possibilities -
1. market could continue move further to 1.4420 area for reaching the target of greater AB=CD
2. Market could reverse down right now.
I do not speak about further continuation to upside, beyond 1.4450, because it's a bit early for that.
So, if you're bullish - wait breakout of 1.45-1.4550 area. Only after that we can return to discussing of Butterfly with 1.52 target.
If you're bearish, there is very important moment on daily time frame -
MACDP comes close to price action. And just above the market stands Agreement at 1.4418. Currently we still have bearish bias - daily trend is bearish, weekly trend is bearish.
But if market will break 1.4418 it destroy at once a lot of bearish points - break strong resistance, erase long black bar, shift trend to bullish. So, for bears 1.4420 is a crucial area. Hence, that's the area were our stop should be placed (actually 1.4420+40 pips at least).
So you may act threefold:
1. Enter short here and place stop above Agreement;
2. Wait when&if market will reach 1.4420 and then look for possibility to enter short;
3. Wait for further confirmation from market of bearish bias. Particularly moving below pivot point and enter on some shallow upside retracement on hourly chart.
Or combine different ways with smaller lot.
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