FOREX PRO Weekly March 05 - 09, 2012

sive, strange... i did the exact same trade as you described on M15, except i entered lower... however, i did not reverse and a still holding as i am very stubborn and believe that my willpower will move the market! just kidding of course ;), but since i am convinced that we will revisit the upside, i am sticking to my guns for now. crossfingers the sharks won't take me to the cleaners. ;-)
 
Hello Mr. Morten!
If you have a moment, please take a look at Gbp. I think that we have a good signal:
1. W&R on Weekly
2. Butterfly on Daily
3. Bearish Divergence on Daily
What do you think about the target?
Thank you!

Hi Georgeta,
good analysis. Target will depend on your time frame. On daily it even possible that minimum target as (0.382 retracement) has been hit. Ultimately, butterfly could reach 1.618 extension of whole butterfly move.
Based on weekly, minimum target could be 0.618 of some most recent AB=CD pattern.
But this is just about extensions, because I do not see on your chart - is there some strong levels below the market or not.
 
sive, strange... i did the exact same trade as you described on M15, except i entered lower... however, i did not reverse and a still holding as i am very stubborn and believe that my willpower will move the market! just kidding of course ;), but since i am convinced that we will revisit the upside, i am sticking to my guns for now. crossfingers the sharks won't take me to the cleaners. ;-)

Hi Triantus,
well, it depends on what you have particularly traded and in what context. That could lead to different actions from us. It's normal.
 
Dear Sive aka Commander in Pips,

With your analysis, I observed that there is a W&R at the exact 1.3159 fib support level on 1hr chart today. Now the price have rebounded from that level to 1.320x level and now pullback to 1.318x-1.319x range.

Do we conclude that the retracement has completed for a 40 pips retracement action? It is insignificant in 1hr or above charts but there were some PA at 5mins chart. Is there still possible retracement back to preferred target of 1.3292-1.3305 region as you mentioned probably on higher time frame? I'm trying to understand the definition of retracement/extension w.r.t to time frame. Hope to have your enlightenment.

Thank you
 
Dear Sive aka Commander in Pips,

With your analysis, I observed that there is a W&R at the exact 1.3159 fib support level on 1hr chart today. Now the price have rebounded from that level to 1.320x level and now pullback to 1.318x-1.319x range.

Do we conclude that the retracement has completed for a 40 pips retracement action? It is insignificant in 1hr or above charts but there were some PA at 5mins chart. Is there still possible retracement back to preferred target of 1.3292-1.3305 region as you mentioned probably on higher time frame? I'm trying to understand the definition of retracement/extension w.r.t to time frame. Hope to have your enlightenment.

Thank you

Well, when W&R has happened - the major crucial point is it's low. If this was real W&R, i.e. market has grabbed all stops below - it has to start pullback. If this will not happen and market will return right back and start move lower, then, probably price has more intention to continue move down.
 
Well, when W&R has happened - the major crucial point is it's low. If this was real W&R, i.e. market has grabbed all stops below - it has to start pullback. If this will not happen and market will return right back and start move lower, then, probably price has more intention to continue move down.

With respect to 1hr chart, the retracement seems not taken place yet. Do we still disregard that considering there was already some up move in lower time frame earlier?

In another scenario that i'm thinking, there will be another test of 1.3159 low again and possible to have a real retracement upwards. From your past experience, do you think there is any possible chance of this scenario?

Thank you Sive for your quick reply.
 
First of all, thank you Sive for your regular analysis and for taking time to answer all our questions.

I have a doubt: as we have made new lows, the confluence area that was at 1.3292-1.3302 has moved lower. Should we move the ideal entry point to go short to these lower values or stick with the original ones?
 
First of all, thank you Sive for your regular analysis and for taking time to answer all our questions.

I have a doubt: as we have made new lows, the confluence area that was at 1.3292-1.3302 has moved lower. Should we move the ideal entry point to go short to these lower values or stick with the original ones?

Yes, we have to move our entry, since it is linked to this area. Also, remember, that we've said - "probably this will be nice area". We've said it in advance. It will be better if we can estimate it with more precision, based on nature of intraday chart.
 
Hi Georgeta,
good analysis. Target will depend on your time frame. On daily it even possible that minimum target as (0.382 retracement) has been hit. Ultimately, butterfly could reach 1.618 extension of whole butterfly move.
Based on weekly, minimum target could be 0.618 of some most recent AB=CD pattern.
But this is just about extensions, because I do not see on your chart - is there some strong levels below the market or not.

I see a strong area, as pointed on the chart. The price is now stuck between MP and WP. Below are WS 1 and 2 (bright green lines) and MS 1 and 2 (pale green lines). I saw a B&B on H4 but it is not working too well at this moment.

The problem that makes me worry is that market didnt reach any target to the Upside on Daily chart. Maybe the price will form higher highs. What do you say about a possible Bearish Wedge?

Thank you Mr. Morten!
 

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