FOREX PRO Weekly, March 07-11, 2011

[ALF]

ABC (top/bottom) patterns

Hi Sive

Please let us know some of the rules about those so often used in your analyses patterns.

1. Where is the usual place of the C point location we should consider:

under A point or somewhere between A and B (for ABC(bottom) pattern) and respectively;

above A point or between A and B - for ABC (top) pattern;

2. What are the main levels for the Fibo expansions from that C points – i.e. 61.8%, 100%, 161.8%, etc;

Are they dependable from the C point location options, considered above;

3. Is this ABC (top/bottom) construction valid for any time frames; if not- which are the most reliable for this kind of analysis;

(I assume there should be some rules, relevant to the day and intraday traders).

Hope your answer will help us to have in depth view and better understanding of your daily analyses.

Thanks.

 

[MidnightRun]

Good morning,
Looks like market gives us nice context for daily B&B trade. And I think, that it could start from 1.3940-1.3955 daily Confluence support area. (this is also a previous highs). The minimum target of this trade is 0.618 resistance from whole retracement move - around 1.3970.


On hourly chart you can see that market has hit 1.618 ABC target pips to pips that is in Agreement with this strong support area.
But I want to give you just one caution - market is builiding negative dynamic pressure and could form a Butterfly Buy with 1.27 target at 1.3840. So, if you intend to buy - better place stops in advance of this possible pattern, somewhere below 1.3830 area.

So, I think we could buy from 1.3840-1.3850 with stop below 1.3830. Target - 1.3970-1.3980.

Sive,
Would like to double-check these numbers:
"Looks like market gives us nice context for daily B&B trade. And I think, that it could start from 1.3940-1.3955 daily Confluence support area".
Are these numbers indeed what you had in mind?
Thank you.

 

[Sive Morten]

Sive,
Would like to double-check these numbers:
"Looks like market gives us nice context for daily B&B trade. And I think, that it could start from 1.3940-1.3955 daily Confluence support area".
Are these numbers indeed what you had in mind?
Thank you.

Hi, MidnightRun,
Sure they are not - it should be 1.3840-1.3850
In the bottom of the post they are correct.
Thanks, I'll fix it.

 

[Sive Morten]

Hi Sive

Please let us know some of the rules about those so often used in your analyses patterns.

1. Where is the usual place of the C point location we should consider:

under A point or somewhere between A and B (for ABC(bottom) pattern) and respectively;

above A point or between A and B - for ABC (top) pattern;

2. What are the main levels for the Fibo expansions from that C points – i.e. 61.8%, 100%, 161.8%, etc;

Are they dependable from the C point location options, considered above;

3. Is this ABC (top/bottom) construction valid for any time frames; if not- which are the most reliable for this kind of analysis;

(I assume there should be some rules, relevant to the day and intraday traders).

Hope your answer will help us to have in depth view and better understanding of your daily analyses.

Thanks.

1. For target calculation we should have thrust move on AB leg. For target calculation C point allways should be between A-B. For support/resistance levels, it allowed to have C point slightly higher/lower A point but not significantly.
2.61.8%, 100%, 161.8% - yes these are the major ones. I also use 1.272. Well the deeper BC retracement - the nearer targets are more valid.
3.Yes, for any time frame.

 

[MidnightRun]

Hi, MidnightRun,
Sure they are not - it should be 1.3840-1.3850
In the bottom of the post they are correct.
Thanks, I'll fix it.

Thankf you Sive.
Since the pair already hit (more or less) 1.3850 a couple of hours ago, I am assuming that the upward movement that you suggested in your analysis has already begun.

 

[Jyotiprakash Pal]

if someone not get that Stop Grabber thing https://www.forexpeacearmy.com/fore...ption-january-13-2010-stop-grabber-trade.html here is some examples thanks Sive sir Great

 

[Q-Rick]

Sive,

I'm confused about your analysis on the EUR/USD update on Wed 09, March 2011.

When discussing the DAILY CHART, you make the point that if we "wait on a daily close below the 3x3, THEN we could have B&B. But when discussing the lower time frames, it seems that you are recommending the BUY trade, regardless (with stop below 1.3820ish), with target toward the .618 of entire swing down.

Which is it, please? .... Thank you very much.

 

[Sive Morten]

Sive,

I'm confused about your analysis on the EUR/USD update on Wed 09, March 2011.

When discussing the DAILY CHART, you make the point that if we "wait on a daily close below the 3x3, THEN we could have B&B. But when discussing the lower time frames, it seems that you are recommending the BUY trade, regardless (with stop below 1.3820ish), with target toward the .618 of entire swing down.

Which is it, please? .... Thank you very much.

Hi Rick,
well, from daily perspective there are two levels, where B&B could start from - 1.3850 K-area or 1.38 - 3/8 major support.
To enter B&B you need to drop 1 time frame lower - in our case this is 60 min chart and look how market will respond to 1.3850 first.
Also we see an Agreement with 1.618 hourly target. So, we have good context for B&B trading currently - it allows us to place tight stop, even if we're wrong and B&B will start from 1.38.
Concerning confirmation at close - here the choice is up to you. If you will wait for confirmation you possibly will skip the trade... Or... Get better enter if you will anticipate it.

Current move up in fact could be just a respect of K-area + agreement after the first touch...who knows... But this move up allow you to move stop to b/e and watch the movie. Here is how it works...

Other words - there is nothing wrong with anticipation, if market allows you to do it.

 

[priyab]

thanx sive............

 

[Marketjoy Trader]

Need to learn

Sive, i have followed for some time now. I need to get a good grip on what you are talking about. i have a copy of the book "Trading with Dinapolis level. There are so many indicators that are refered to in the book. From you experience, which ones do you think someone must have. And again can they function on a dukascopy jforex platform? Thank you.