Forex FOREX PRO WEEKLY, March 07 - 11, 2022

Joshnix

Corporal
Messages
108
Sive I am confused by your analysis today. Confluence resistance has held @ 1.1095 area. B&B seems to have begun.
 

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
16,092
Morning everybody,

Despite that data was strong recently, market reaction was moderate, and ECB meeting was almost totally ignored. I would say that ECB statement is hawkish - stopping of bonds buying and 11 points rate change by July, if we wouldn't have the turmoil that we have. Currently, these steps looks too weak and the same like a "pie to the elephant". 8%CPI in the US is more important, but we should make a discount - it doesn't reflect yet EU money in the US. Data in April and especially in May should include it, and inflationary pressure could ease a bit. If not - it just tells that situation is absolutely awful.

In short-term - our B&B trade is going well. Entry process was accurate and without any surprises. Thus, if you have stepped-in, now it is possible to move stops to breakeven. On daily chart we need to keep an eye on bearish grabber, as price is flirting with the MACD. This could give us more extended downside target.
eur_d_11_03_22.png


Meantime, the minimum target is 5/8 Fib support @1.0926:
eur_4h_11_03_22.png


1H chart shows that action could take the shape of AB-CD pattern. Once "C" point will be set, you could get the target with more precision. Now OP stands a bit lower, around 1.0894, but COP is 1.0930 and agrees with 1.0926. Just watch for the daily grabber, and adjust AB-CD pattern, once downside action will be re-established.
Those, who haven't entered yesterday, today could get another chance, if you try to use current pullback:
eur_1h_11_03_22.png
 

Joshnix

Corporal
Messages
108
Hi Josh,
what K-area are you talking about? What moment in our analysis hesitates you?
1647002584440.png

This is the Confluence I had. 1.1070 area to 1.1095 area on the 4 hr chart. So I guess I made a scalp trade. My thought also was that the war would affect more than the ECB decision. So that is what confused me as I didn't see the same confluence. Was there a rule of oversold that lead you to believe it would attempt the daily low area of 1.1140 area? What gave me pause was my own analysis and being stubborn about being correct. Typical engineer mode.
 

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
16,092
This is the Confluence I had. 1.1070 area to 1.1095 area on the 4 hr chart. So I guess I made a scalp trade. My thought also was that the war would affect more than the ECB decision. So that is what confused me as I didn't see the same confluence. Was there a rule of oversold that lead you to believe it would attempt the daily low area of 1.1140 area? What gave me pause was my own analysis and being stubborn about being correct. Typical engineer mode.
Well, in general you've done everything correct. The volatility around area where market could start the B&B is a common thing. So, W&R is not something unexpected. Personally I just was watching to XOP, which is together with ECB had big chances to be touched. This is the reason why in the video we've warned to watch it, suggesting stop order placement above the XOP. But your entry at 1.1095 is not a mistake, as it is also high uncertainty about price shape in the moment of the reversal. For instance, we could not get the W&R...
 
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