Forex FOREX PRO WEEKLY, March 09 - 13, 2020

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
14,060
Morning guys,

So, everything goes with our plan by far. EUR tests weekly K-resistance area, completed our intraday XOP and pulling back from daily/weekly overbought. As we've said - short position is not forbidden but it just has greater risk than usual, as market has panic sentiment. That's why we mostly try to be conservative and follow to existed momentum.

Still, on daily chart pullback could take the shape of engulfing pattern that potentially could be used for intraday trading on bearish side. Our major first pattern here is B&B "Buy" that could start from K-support area around 1.1220-1.1250. If we wouldn't have panic and virus story I would suggest deeper retracement due strong overbought condition. But in current circumstances we consider mentioned area as well:
eur_d_10_03_20.png


On 4H chart market is trying to close the gap, XOP is hit, but no clear bearish patterns have been formed yet. Thus, on daily chart we wait the B&B level to consider "Buy" trade, while on intraday charts those who wants to, could stick with daily bearish engulfing for scalp short positions, once pattern will be confirmed. Anyway, think twice guys...
eur_4h_10_03_20.png
 

Joh

Sergeant Major
Messages
976
Thank you Sive for your 'rational views/report' :), the virus according to the experts here will affect mainly the elderly or folk with previous lung issues, others are hardly affected.. Amazing therefore to see the world panic as it is. Weird! Like you it seems to me the' timing' does not make any sense! Unless as some others have suggested some countries want to get rid of millions of their elderly populations .Who knows!
Ether way thank you, i feel comforted by your report and thank you for balancing the hysteria out there. :).
 

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
14,060
Morning everybody,

EUR mostly keeps the same two scenarios. First is solid bearish engulfing pattern right around weekly K-resistance area, which typically suggests AB-CD shape on lower time frames. Now we have AB in place and BC in progress. Second - our B&B "Buy" but it should come later as price right now doesn't show yet any close below 3x3 DMA. Currently we're watching for daily K-support as potential area where B&B could start. This is theoretically the target of engulfing trade:
eur_d_11_03_20.png


If you are not ready to go short - then it would be better just wait when good bullish scenario will appear. For example, our B&B "Buy" trade. If you still consider possible short-entry, for that purpose you could take a look at resistance levels where downside CD extension could start. Market just has filled the gap and moving higher, forming retracement back inside engulfing body. Invalidation of bearish setup is, as usual, the top of engulfing pattern:
eur_4h_11_03_20.png
 

minimax

1st Lieutenant
Messages
1,456
I reevaluated count on €$ and as long we are below 1,12822 more move down is possible but limited @ 1,11776, should just touch not even penetrate. If in next few hours comes above 1,12885 it can make DZZ 3rd wave and can go much deeper...
If push down on €$ continues I think Cable could be pushed lower too and they both go higher...
Gold works by the plan so far, next dive in deep I expect between 1648 and 1657 toward 1618 or 1595, if turns
@ 1657..
 

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
14,060
Morning guys,

We keep going with our daily B&B Setup. Market stands near the level, where theoretically it should start. I mean daily K-support area:
eur_d_12_03_20.png


Still there are few scenarios are probable. Today 1H chart is our primary time frame. As you can see, market has completed OP and finalized this action by butterfly pattern. That's why theoretically it already could be on a way to B&B target, if, say, we will get reverse H&S pattern here.

Second scenario (that is my favorite) is 3-Drive Buy pattern. In this case market should keep perfect shape of B&B because it will reach major daily 3/8 support precisely by 3rd Drive lows and form here perfect bullish reversal pattern.

Here you need to decide - either to split position and apply scale-in entry or just follow to 3-Drive. Anyway, stops should be below daily K-support area:
eur_1h_12_03_20.png
 
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