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FOREX PRO Weekly March 12 - 16, 2012

Discussion in 'Sive Morten- Currencies and Gold Video Analysis' started by Sive Morten, Mar 10, 2012.

  1. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    Unfortunately our cooperation with CQG is over and now I can do nothing except start using of MT 4 software for our researches. Although I have “Bloomberg” and “Reuters Data Stream” software, they are also very expensive and outstanding, but a bit for other purposes. They are not so good for technical analysis in general and for DiNapoli method in particular. I can say even that they absolutely not suitable for DiNapoli approach.
    Still, let’s find positive even with negative. Now we can eliminate difference with futures quotes and spot quotes. It will be easier to track such indicators as pivot points, Fib levels etc. Also our forum member, Michael has programmed indicator that makes simpler drawing of 3/8 and 5/8 Fib levels. This also will be some help in our work.


    Monthly
    Current situation on monthly charts stands near perfect. After hitting of 0.618 Fib extension target market has shown 0.382 retracement and now is showing downward pullback. As we’ve said in previous research 1.3509-1.3709 is solid K-resistance at monthly chart and typically, price should not break it after just hitting of 0.618 target. Otherwise, it will be a strong sign that market sentiment has changed and bears’ power falls under question. So, now we can see that everything is according with bears plan and our long-term expectation of 1.1650 level. Also market has touched monthly pivot point and pulled back from it. This tells about long-term bearish sentiment on the market.
    One thing that has to be mentioned here is possibility of not just A-B retracement but AB=CD retracement on lower time frames. In this case market could show a bit deeper move inside of K-resistance. Although this is not significant for monthly time frame, it could become very important for us, since we mostly trade at daily charts.

    As a conclusion here we can point that overall context holds bearish and market shows absolutely normal and logical price action after reaching minor extension target.
    [​IMG]

    Weekly
    This time frame does not demand a lot of comments, I suppose. Currently situation is developing according with thoughts that we’ve discussed on previous week – market is reacting on bearish engulfing pattern. As we’ve said, this could become huge advantage for us, since we will know market’s direction for the whole week in advance.
    Still, in the beginning of previous week we’ve expected some pullback up to enter short. This pullback has happened precisely as we wanted it – 0.382 resistance and weekly pivot point. This small retracement gives as additional confidence with bearish power possible continuation to 1.29-1.2950 area.
    Here is you also can see that market holds below monthly pivot point at 1.3261.
    So, all that we will have to do is to trade coming week on short side of the market. There is only one warning that should be made here – the same as we’ve made higher. Be careful to hold shorts below 1.29 level, because market still could turn to AB=CD retracement on weekly, because trend still holds bullish and current move down is just attempt to finish engulfing pattern’s target.
    [​IMG]

    Daily
    Trend holds bearish and covers previous 3/8 retracement, market is not at oversold by DOSC, so there is no solid barriers to stop market from further move down. Pay attention how strong pullback was from our resistance level. That is what we particularly want not see as downward continuation. Although current situation in EU holds unstable and anything could happen, but looking at the way how it is developing by now, I dare to suggest, that we should focus on downward continuation and search possibility to join with bearish trend. Target is the same, as we’ve specified already million of times – 1.29-1.2950 Agreement area.
    [​IMG]

    Hourly and 4-hour
    I do not have 4-hour chart, because there is nothing important, but only trend direction – it’s bearish. Most important events for us stand at hourly chart. I suppose, you can make right conclusion by yourself. Here we have context for 3 potential DiNapoli Directional trades – B&B “Sell”, DRPO “Buy” or DRPO “Buy Failure”. All of them could be used to enter short, but at different levels, and DRPO “Buy” could be traded separately, if you’re a scalper.
    So, If it will be B&B, market probably will reach either 1.3150 level or even K-resistance and pivot at first penetration of 3x3 DMA. In this case we can enter short. If it will be DRPO “Buy”, then most probable that market will reach K-area 1.3170-1.3180 and pivot point. If it will be DRPO “Failure”, then market will hardly show any significant pullback to the upside and we have to be ready to enter short. Anyway retracement should not be too deep. How to enter is up to you. You may enter right at levels by some reversal patterns at lower time frames, you may wait when hourly trend will turn bearish again and then enter – as we’ve made on previous week and catch this plunge down.
    If market will move above K-resistance and pivot point – hold on, do not enter short, wait for further clarification, because this will be not quite logical price action.
    [​IMG]



    Conclusion:
    Long-term bias holds bearish, but weekly time frame does not exclude some upward continuation in the way of AB=CD retracement. So, for positional traders will be safer to enter short, when and if weekly trend will turn bearish. Long-term target still stands at 1.16-1.1650 area
    On short-term perspective we have weekly bearish engulfing pattern. We expect that by this pattern market could reach as far as 1.29-1.2950 area in nearest week or two.


    The technical portion of Sive's analysis owes a great deal to Joe DiNapoli's methods, and uses a number of Joe's proprietary indicators. Please note that Sive's analysis is his own view of the market and is not endorsed by Joe DiNapoli or any related companies.
     
  2. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    EUR/USD Daily Update, Tue 13, 2012

    Good morning,
    today's update will be extra short, since all that we've needed we've said yesterday.
    Today we will take a look only on houlry chart.

    Trend holds bullish, market has reached our area to enter short. You can see light penetration of it. I suppose that this has happened just because of 1.618 extension of AB-CD pattern. Market has hit it and returned right back. So, couple of thoughts here. First is if you want to enter you can do this twofold:
    - blind enter right from level and with stop above 1.3210 - 0.618 resistance;
    - get confirmation from hourly MACD first and then enter at nearest retracement.
    Both of them have as adv. as disadv. that we've discussed many times.

    If market will move above this level, this will be unwelcome sign for bears, because next level is not so strong as this one. If market will pass even through this K-resistance and hold above pivot, then it might lead to some kind of Double bottom on 4-hour chart and anyway will be not good development for bears. We will need to wait for some more clarification of situation in this case.
     

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    #2 Sive Morten, Mar 10, 2012
    Last edited: Mar 13, 2012
  3. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    Good morning,

    On daily time frame trend is bearish, market is not at oversold and, in fact, has no significant support levels that could be barriers to continue move down. The next significant support is just major 5/8 at 1.2950.

    Still, market has reached some levels. First is, pivot support 1 1.3048, and couple of 0.618 extensions from different AB-CD's. Market has shown respect of them already by 3/8 retracement after first touch and now is forming something of triangle shape. What important observations could be made here.

    Significant resistance level is 1.3135-1.3143 K-resistance level on hourly chart. Market should not break it to the upside if bear's bias still holds. Since 0.618 extensions are minor ones, price should not show deep retracement. I will not be surprised if market will just continue move down, since it already has shown respect to this area.

    Second, there is a potential for butterfly Buy pattern on hourly TF. If it will appear, then retracement to this level is possible.
    But, even if this retracement will happen - it will not erase our bearish view on daily chart. The crucial moment here is standing below K-resistance. That is what really important.

    So, two tasks for today's trading session:
    1. Watch for potential reversal patterns on daily. If they come, some deeper retracement could happen. If not - then probably market will proceed lower;
    2. Keep an eye on 1.3135 K-resistance. If market will move and hold above it - close shorts.
     

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    #3 Sive Morten, Mar 10, 2012
    Last edited: Mar 14, 2012
  4. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    EUR/USD Daily Update, Thu 15, March 2012

    Good morning,
    market is doing attempts to continue move lower, but looks like it is hard. i've found that 1.3037 is also a monthly pivot support 1, just forgot to tell about it yesterday.
    As a result two different scenarios is possible.
    First on is direct plunge to 1.29-1.2950 area. Since market already stands below as targets as pivots. This is possible.

    For second scenario we need to take a look at lower TF.

    on 4 hour TF current low stands precisely at 1.618 of previous retracement. This is hint on 3-Drive Buy, that could be completed right at daily AB-CD - the same 1.29-1.2950 area.
    But, before that market could make attempt to create a 3d drive and this will happen by retracement to 1.3119 level right from here.
    Also we see MACD divergence that is very often a companion of different exhausting patterns and 3-Drive as well.

    On houry TF we see butterfly and market now stands at 1.618 extension of it and small W&R.
    So today I see two major actions to be done.
    Keep a close look at current level. if market will move below 1.30 and hold there - it will cancel W&R and it will mean that probably we will reach destination.
    If not, be ready for deeper retracement. Unfortunately currently I can't say how it will turn, because it has not even started yet.
    There are 2 K-resistances. they could give the clue the short-term strength of the market. Also, keep an eye on price action - any thrusting moves solid white candles will be in favor of deeper retracement.
     

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    #4 Sive Morten, Mar 10, 2012
    Last edited: Mar 15, 2012
  5. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    EUR/USD Daily Update, Fri 16, March 2012

    Good morning,
    not much to comment today. Market has reached 1.3119 K-resistance at 4-hour chart that is in a row with potential 3-Drive pattern. So today, 1.3119 is our major focus.
    If you've entered short here - move your stops to b/e, because if market will move above it - don't be short, wait for further clarification.

    On hourly chart I see some bearish signs, but they are not so strong. First is, hourly trend has turned bearish and there is s stop grabber on second top right below 1.3119.
    Second, there is a hidden bearish divergence with MACD, that suggests downward move continuation.

    So, if we will be lucky and market will proceed with 3-Drive, I still suppose that safer to take profit around 1.2970 area, at least partially. Ultimately, you may wait even till 1.29, but this will be nervous, since market will have to pass through 3-Drive target point, 1.2950 major daily Fib support.
     

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    #5 Sive Morten, Mar 10, 2012
    Last edited: Mar 16, 2012
  6. Ivan Helfman

    Ivan Helfman Private

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  7. georgeta

    georgeta Sergeant

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    Hello Mr. Morten!
    I have a question about this "follow the trend" trading style. Does all trends have to be the same, Daily, H4, H1? I mean, last week you said that we had to wait H1 trend to turn Bearish but H4 was Bullish.
    Thank you!

    P.S. GFT offers DiNapoli indicators on a practice account for 80$ a month. I think Damian gave this info some time ago.

    http://www.gftforex.com/Analysis-Tools/Dinapoli/
     
    #7 georgeta, Mar 10, 2012
    Last edited: Mar 10, 2012
  8. justolufemi

    justolufemi Private

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    X IS THE BIGINING OF A DOWN SWING THAT GOT A FIB RETRACEMENT OF 61.8 FROM A TO B,WHEN I USE THE EXPANSION TOOL ON X,A,B, I GOT MY 618% EXPANSION AT C,THEN IT RETRACE AGAIN TO D,I USE THE a-b-c METHOD YOU TEACH US ON FPA COURSE,JUST LIKE FROM X,A,B i.e i have a down move from B to C then it retrace to D which is78.6 fib retracement level and there we have an inverted hammer(price action sell signal) and also last week bearish bar give us the confirmation on down move
    now this where i need your help, am on sell already from daily on friday.my SL and TP are the red lines, at the blue line i have fib 127 from point X and expasion 127% from(B-C_D)
    1,should i shift my SL above the inverted hammer at D so my SL could be above the retracement level since i can stil obey risk:reward at blue line
    2, can the blue line be classified as AGREEMENT or CONFLUECE,
    3, can it get to the blue line in the chart.
    plese i need to know my stand from your own point of view,please i know you do eur/usd do this for a fan
    thanks in advance sive.
     
  9. justolufemi

    justolufemi Private

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    please what is the value of the variables of the MACD use are using
     
  10. Synchronicity

    Synchronicity Sergeant

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