FOREX PRO Weekly March 12 - 16, 2012
- Thread starter Sive Morten
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Sive Morten
Special Consultant to the FPA
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- 18,648
Hi Georgeta,
in fact 4 hour time frame is not from DiNapoli list of TF. He uses daily and then hourly. That's why this is possible correct combination. But from time to time I like to take a look at 4-hour trend as well, just to see how it responds on starting move on hourly chart. 4 hour TF is too slow to combine it with daily. It's better to use it as confirmation. Since it is faster than daily and you've entered on hourly TF - after some time take a look at 4 hour trend.
Hi justolufemi,
You should estimate the direction of trade first and only after that apply different Fib extensions and levels. Because they do not give you the context.
That's why it's a bit difficult to say what level market could achieve only based on swings.
About MACD numbers and what is Confluence and Agreement - visit our Glossary in the root of this part of Forum.
Hi, currently we're in discussion with FPA administration. If they allow, we will make available for download these indicators.
onenikos
Corporal
- Messages
- 90
Dear Sive and All
As I have pointed in my previous posts (see also my post at Stavro's Euro and Greece post) right after the PSI exersise Greece has been downgraded by Moodys to the lowest rank. If after the haircut the Greek debt could be serviced, all would be ok and we could see the upward reaction in the EURUSD pair. What the markets are pricing now (correctly this time) is that the new Greek bonds do not exceed at best 20% nominal value and are indeed traded at 15% their value.The markets believe that it is impossible for the Greek GDP to grow from arround -7.5% to +2% within the next few months and that at a time of gross reduction of Public spending and revenue. Note that the official haircut was 53%. Count an additional 32% that was re-lended the the State with lower interest than the original and the fact that new bond issues are traded at 15% their value, that renders the "real" haircut at to 85%!!! This is bankruptsy in my book and under this circumstances CDS's will be set on fire. In line with technical analysis the charts spell the story of the markets reaction and the strong downtrend emerging.
With my thanks to Sive for his skillfull analysis I wish to all to have nice day with your loved ones.
As I have pointed in my previous posts (see also my post at Stavro's Euro and Greece post) right after the PSI exersise Greece has been downgraded by Moodys to the lowest rank. If after the haircut the Greek debt could be serviced, all would be ok and we could see the upward reaction in the EURUSD pair. What the markets are pricing now (correctly this time) is that the new Greek bonds do not exceed at best 20% nominal value and are indeed traded at 15% their value.The markets believe that it is impossible for the Greek GDP to grow from arround -7.5% to +2% within the next few months and that at a time of gross reduction of Public spending and revenue. Note that the official haircut was 53%. Count an additional 32% that was re-lended the the State with lower interest than the original and the fact that new bond issues are traded at 15% their value, that renders the "real" haircut at to 85%!!! This is bankruptsy in my book and under this circumstances CDS's will be set on fire. In line with technical analysis the charts spell the story of the markets reaction and the strong downtrend emerging.
With my thanks to Sive for his skillfull analysis I wish to all to have nice day with your loved ones.
Hello Mr Sive
Thanks for this great analysis, but i still have question base on one week time f. please when is the proper price for bearish outlook there. Currently am having DMA 7x5, is it when this line have broken? or is there any price level to watch for its baerishness?
Thanks.
Thanks for this great analysis, but i still have question base on one week time f. please when is the proper price for bearish outlook there. Currently am having DMA 7x5, is it when this line have broken? or is there any price level to watch for its baerishness?
Thanks.
rashidin5178
Sergeant
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- 244
Hi Sive,
As far as I concerned, H4 mostly correlated with weekly timeframe, H1 to daily, daily to monthly. On lower timeframe, M5 usually a combination with H1 and M15 with H4. As we all know, the best time to trade is when all timeframes shows the same trend. But if we got contradiction between monthly, weekly and daily like we have right now on E/U chart, IMHO the best way to trade is when the combination of TF as I mentioned above shows the same trend (and may I say this is "trend following's techique" is all about?). And may I say here that no matter what the movement should be, whether retracement or continuation of major trend, the price should go to its trend of their respective TF combination untill we achieve its target or we got a reliable patterns that may change the direction of price as well as the current trend.
Please correct me if I'm wrong, Sir.....as always....
Thanks and Best Regards.
Rashidin
Hi Sive, Thanks again for your analysis.
Could you check in your next week analysis a potential medium term LONG from 1.2900-1.2950 with 2 target 1.33 & 1.44?
See attached chart where I see forming two potential patterns.
1. H&S (red) with target 1.25 /calculated: 1.30-(1.35-1.30) /, where we should have a 2nd top in the right shoulder to have a harmonic pattern
2. and I think we have also a good chance for cup reversal (yellow) with target 1.4400 /calculated: 1.35+(1.35-1.26) /.
In any case, I see high probability for an additional daily upswing.
Thnx
Could you check in your next week analysis a potential medium term LONG from 1.2900-1.2950 with 2 target 1.33 & 1.44?
See attached chart where I see forming two potential patterns.
1. H&S (red) with target 1.25 /calculated: 1.30-(1.35-1.30) /, where we should have a 2nd top in the right shoulder to have a harmonic pattern
2. and I think we have also a good chance for cup reversal (yellow) with target 1.4400 /calculated: 1.35+(1.35-1.26) /.
In any case, I see high probability for an additional daily upswing.
Thnx
Last edited:
Triantus Shango
Sergeant Major
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- 1,371
michael
you could upload it here: 4shared folder - MQ4
sorry guys, this may be a bit too much to ask here, but if possible, can include MQ5 as well if possible? I hope i'm not the only one using MT5 in here
Sive Morten
Special Consultant to the FPA
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- 18,648
Hi Gibson, DMA was used previously for trend identification, but now it is better to use MACD. It's bullish on weekly time frame. Currently we are just trading engulfing pattern on weekly time frame. but since trend is bullish, we can't exclude possibility of AB=CD upward retracement in medium-term perspective.
If we assume that we have no directional patterns then probably you're right.
FxShark
yes, this could happen, but your analysis does not contradict with current short-term trading of engulfing pattern. You just look on a bit greater and longer perspective. Since we trade mostly on daily time frame and lower, we need some shorter patterns and contexts that could be used through the week. That's why we focus on some patterns that are not signficant on weekly chart.
Your perspective is interesting, but has a bit longer term.
rashidin5178
Sergeant
- Messages
- 244
Thanks a lot, Sir.
BTW, how's about your new department? Is it interesting?
Thanks and Best regards
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