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FOREX PRO Weekly March 14-18, 2011

Discussion in 'Sive Morten- Currencies and Gold Video Analysis' started by Sive Morten, Mar 13, 2011.

  1. rasto007

    rasto007 Private, 1st Class

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    It almost looks like the market jumped over tht fib at 1.3907 and now it became a support.

    Sive, do you still have a bearish bias?

    Rasto
     
  2. ALF

    ALF Private, 1st Class

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    test

    No posts for more than 9 hrs? Amazing..... Is this site alive?
     
  3. Jyotiprakash Pal

    Jyotiprakash Pal Sergeant

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    :eek:oh::eek:oh: looks like yesterday's analysis can work today :D hope i find correctly..SCared of this Pinbar! another view on 1 hour . telling me buy :( confused waiting for sir's advice
     

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  4. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    EUR/USD Daily Update, Tue 15, March 2011

    Good morning,
    Yesterday market has not shown retracement down on intraday time frames, as I've expected, although it has tried to do that from 1.3950 area. Also, our B&B trade has reached the target.

    Daily
    Now situation on daily time frame very sophisticated. In short-term perspective, market is forming the stop grabber pattern. If it will confirm by close, then it assumes that lows at 1.3733 should be taken out by the price. It means that we could see another AB-CD retracement with target 1.3703.
    In a bit longer perspective market could form 3-drive sell pattern that could start from 1.41 area. Furthermore, the appearance of AB=CD pattern will not cancel this possibility.
    Another possible scenario on daily is a butterfly "Sell" that could start from the same target as 3-drive - 1.41. So what we should to do?

    4-hour chart.
    We can see that trend is bullish, just below the market pivot point and 3/8 support (that I've expected to be reached yesterday). If market will continue to drift higher from this level and will form some stop grabbers, then I will not enter on short side, till the previous highs at 1.3984 will not be taken out.
    If instead market will turn trend bearish and move below pivot - then It makes sense to enter short with expectation of initial target at 1.3830.

    1-hour chart
    Here we can see that H&S is forming. This pattern closely links with 4-hour chart. Possibly if you're risky trader, you may try to anticipate it - buy it is very dangerous, H&S fails very often on hourly charts. Still, if on 4-hour chart market will turn trend bearish - then H&S should work. If not - then it will fail.
    If it will work and you will enter in anticipation of its completion, then it will allow you to move your stop to b/e and even catch the possible move to 1.3703. Or at least to 1.3830...

    P.S. by the way, the new part on FPA Forex Military School has been released:
    Forex Military School - Forex Peace Army Forum
     

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  5. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    EUR/USD Daily Update, Wed 16, March 2011

    Good morning,

    Yesterday market has closed above MACDP, so the scenario with possible down AB-CD retracement has been cancelled. Now, I has more bullish bias on EUR than bearish, especially with after some prompting from ECB about possible rate increasing. But let's return to technicals:

    Daily.
    Here I think, that in nearest term market should reach 1.4106 area - the 0.618 target of AB-CD pattern and accomplish 3-drive Sell. If you take a look at daily chart, you'll see, that after each thrust up market shows just 0.382 retracement - this is a sign of strength. Second, although during recent days trend has shifted bearish - price action has not confirmed that and continue to rise. This is bullish dynamic pressure. Third - market is very close to previous highs and stops, just above them. I can't believe that market makers will not drop the fire there.

    Hourly
    Here we can see another AB-CD pattern, and makret has hit 0.618 target already, now it turns to retracement. Also you can see, that our nearest target to downside 1.3840 area has bit hit yesterday.
    The trading plan is follows - daily trend is bullish. We should take a close look to 1.39 area. This is weekly pivot, and hourly confluence support. When and If market will reach it - look for buy signals on lower time frames - 5 min, or 15 min chart. If you'll see some - enter long with stops below the previous low at
    1.3830. Target 1.4080-1.41 area.
     

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  6. Joh

    Joh Sergeant Major

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    Mr. Sive

    Ones again thank you ever so much for your generosity and thoughtfulness, you are simply amazing :) Joh
     
  7. Jyotiprakash Pal

    Jyotiprakash Pal Sergeant

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    Great analysis again sir , Buying this hit
     

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  8. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    Hi, Jyotiprakash
    Actually, market has not quite reached it yet :). I've told about 1.39-1.3920 in spot terms... But it close, we'll see.
     
  9. Q-Rick

    Q-Rick Private, 1st Class

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    Sive,

    What about the "stretched" 4Hour overbought?

    Thank you!
     
  10. ike7771

    ike7771 Private

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    Thank's Steve.
    Youre analysis is awsome.
    I've watch you for some time know and i have to say you are briliand.
    Thank's again.
    Ps I read on the net that Di Napoli book is not that ease to read.
    Do you think a guy with not mutch education like me can do that.
    My english is poor as you can see.
    Any way i really wanted to thank you for everythink you do for as and God bless you and your's.
     

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