FOREX PRO Weekly March 14-18, 2011

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
12,852
Sive,

What about the "stretched" 4Hour overbought?

Thank you!
Hi Rick,
As I remember, we've discussed this on Tuesday - that market didn't totally respect it - it forced market deeper, but then has shown pullback.
In general Stretch is a bit rubber pattern - overbought or oversold is putting market in opposite direction, but when market is really strong - it could force against it.

Thank's Steve.
Youre analysis is awsome.
I've watch you for some time know and i have to say you are briliand.
Thank's again.
Ps I read on the net that Di Napoli book is not that ease to read.
Do you think a guy with not mutch education like me can do that.
My english is poor as you can see.
Any way i really wanted to thank you for everythink you do for as and God bless you and your's.
Hi, Ike,
well, try to find book on your own language, I suppose that it has been released not only in English. You can do that - all that you need to start, is just undertand some elementary things - what Moving average is, Stochastic, MACD, RSI. What is support and resistance. IF you understand it - you can start with DiNapoli book. But usually, it needs to pass trhough it not just once. (I've re-read it at least 3 or even 4 times). Because there is a very high densitiy of information there.
 

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
12,852
EUR/USD Daily Update, Thu 17, March 2011

Good morning,
Although market has hit our target at houlry Confluence support and now is showing some respect to it - in a way of pullback, I think that currently is better to stay flat.

On daily time frame trend is bearish, but price action does not confirm it - market stands just below the previous highs and above weekly pivot. Also you can see MACD bearish divergence, that public likes to trade. In such circumstances, I can't establish short position, because I do not believe, that market makers will not trigger the stops just above the highs, and will not punish the public, who are entering short now with this MACD Divergence. So, I suppose that market chould hit 1.41 area - the target of possible daily Butterfly Sell. Only after that I will think about entering short.
Or, if market will cofirm it's bearish bias by price action - but now I do not see it.

4-hour.
Here situation is also very blurring. My signal for enter long will be, if market will touch 1.3990 area for the third time (it has happened twice already) and show shallow retracement - this will be the bell for possible move to 1.41 and W&R of highs at daily time frame.
If it will not happen - market could form Butterfly Buy on 4-hour chart with dowside potential 1.27 at 1.3800 and 1.618 at 1.3730 (at my quotes). The left wing of this butterfly has accomlished already.

So, There are no either solid buy signals or sell signals. Both of them still demand some confirmation by price action.
 

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m0z1

Private, 1st Class
Messages
54
Eur/usd

Dear Sive

Thanks for your analysis. As you expected the market did break out and went to the upside. We have not seen any retracement and looks like it will touch 1.41. If it touches 1.41 is it correct to say that we should we look for some sell signals?

Thanks
Mili
 

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
12,852
Dear Sive

Thanks for your analysis. As you expected the market did break out and went to the upside. We have not seen any retracement and looks like it will touch 1.41. If it touches 1.41 is it correct to say that we should we look for some sell signals?

Thanks
Mili
Hi, Mili
Yes, you're right. 1.41 is an area where Butterfly "Sell" could tigger and 3-drive sell. Also 1.4110 is 0.618 Fib exp. target. If it will be W&R (and we will see it tommorow or in the beginning of the next week) - much better. So, we should be aware of sell-off, but it doesn't mean that we should Sell blindly - only if there will be clear sell patterns...
 

Jyotiprakash Pal

Sergeant
Messages
225
jyotiprakash, did you trade the up move using your 5 mins trend system. If yes, when did you exit and what was the basis for exit?

Hello sir .. i enter at 1.3934 :) the price go up :err: 27-28 points .. i closed 80% .. then drag the stoploss sive' sir mentioned level .. and go to sleep :D
 

ochills

Master Sergeant
Messages
278
Hi Sive,
Pls do have a look @ this chart and tell me your view.
For few days I have been washing USD/JPY & AUD/CAD
On USD the bullish butterly as reached my entering point 4 buy but am afraid becos of the sudden free fall Over 250 pips fall. likewise Aud/Usd pls do I ignore this 2 butterfly on th 2 currency. though for now I have pending order on AUD/CAD bcos of RRT i saw on daily chart though price is now below initial double bottom on 4hours.
thanks in anticipation for ur ans.
thanks
 

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