FOREX PRO Weekly March 14-18, 2011

Maluco

Private
Messages
29
Really Sive excellent work (as usual) on your analysis.
A little bit more wash and rinse, a spike and I reckon fundamentally it may fall as far as 1.1850. In the meantime WOW you are a Forex Rock Star so take a bow, have a beer and buy another Ferrari.;)
Humbly yours,
Paul

What makes you think that EUR will fall to 1.18xx ? It needs a very strong political & economical reason for this to happen, and we don't quite clearly have it yet.
 

Paul McConnell

Private, 1st Class
Messages
66
Portents of Upheavel

Hi Maluco.

Western war planes en-route to Libya with potential refugees to Europe coupled to ongoing general Arab unrest along with the Japanese hitting a record low and upgrading the Nuclear hazard to 5 and with Spain Italy and Ireland in a financial morass are all problems that won't go away overnight leads me to think that notoriously fickle markets will be taking refuge with the dollar and of course the old standby..gold. In fact things last year were not looking as dismal when analyzers were predicting 1 to 1 the Euro with the Dollar.
Unless of course I am missing something and there is in fact some good news out there? What are your thoughts?
All the best,
Paul.
 

gmts

Recruit
Messages
6
Is Butterfly Sell still Valid?

Hi Sive,

Euro Price action has penetrated 1.27% expansion and it seems to targeting stops at 1.4280.

Will it make a retacement first to 1.4000 before heading to 1.4280 region?

Attached are the screenshots on what I observed on Friday closed.



Thanks,

gmts
 

Attachments

Jyotiprakash Pal

Sergeant
Messages
225
Hi Sive,

Euro Price action has penetrated 1.27% expansion and it seems to targeting stops at 1.4280.

Will it make a retacement first to 1.4000 before heading to 1.4280 region?

Attached are the screenshots on what I observed on Friday closed.



Thanks,

gmts
This Trend line ruining the bear party , And also ... Butterfly reach 161.8% Fibo .. so its still valid i guess .. Chart Uploaded
 

Attachments

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Jyotiprakash Pal

Sergeant
Messages
225
Sive sir , i entered that AB= CD when price take out the last bear candle's low .. is that correct way trigger this pattern,stoploss just above the trigger candle ? not reached the target stopped out with 7 points :unhappy: target is 618 of CD leg right sir?
 

Attachments

Maluco

Private
Messages
29
Hi Maluco.

Western war planes en-route to Libya with potential refugees to Europe coupled to ongoing general Arab unrest along with the Japanese hitting a record low and upgrading the Nuclear hazard to 5 and with Spain Italy and Ireland in a financial morass are all problems that won't go away overnight leads me to think that notoriously fickle markets will be taking refuge with the dollar and of course the old standby..gold. In fact things last year were not looking as dismal when analyzers were predicting 1 to 1 the Euro with the Dollar.
Unless of course I am missing something and there is in fact some good news out there? What are your thoughts?
All the best,
Paul.
All of the above have been going on for a while, but the Japan's nuclear problem. I believe next week to be a key one, as many events will be unfolding and we will also have a clearer direction on the ECB, as speculators have been pricing in since Trichet's last speech.

A correction is due to happen but to take us back to 1.18xx levels it will take an unexpected Euro event to make it happen.
 

Paul McConnell

Private, 1st Class
Messages
66
Short time frame market participants BEWARE

Hi Maluco.
I think you are almost quite right.
Almost in that it is the medium time frame participants who are "pricing in".
Long time frame market participants have already "priced in" which costs, and moves the market as we are currently witnessing.
However these self same long time frame participants will demand their 'pound of flesh' and the bearish correction viewed from the current global situation means a fib 100% is almost guaranteed, while at worst, European right wing sentiment may in fact see the Euro achieve the parity already described.
If this is all that happens, in my book, the Euro is still getting off lightly!

Optimistically yours,
Paul
 

Jyotiprakash Pal

Sergeant
Messages
225
What makes you think that EUR will fall to 1.18xx ? It needs a very strong political & economical reason for this to happen, and we don't quite clearly have it yet.

Hi sir ... here is a Monthly chart and Sive Sir's Example of Wash and Rinse ... Market Wash the Lows and stay in this triangle .. i am not an Expert i am a 23 year college student .. with <>tiny experience .. umm next analysis from sive sir clear lots of view's :) waiting for his thoughts on Euro .. I the attachment

1) Sive Sir Wash and Rinse Example form his old analysis for visual

2) Monthly chart with Trendlines(** Hope i draw it right )
 

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Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
12,705
Sive sir , i entered that AB= CD when price take out the last bear candle's low .. is that correct way trigger this pattern,stoploss just above the trigger candle ? not reached the target stopped out with 7 points :unhappy: target is 618 of CD leg right sir?
Hi Jyotiprakash Pal,
If you trade AB-CD, then your stop should be very tight and close to "D" point.
But here I won't Sell in "D" for two reasons:
1. Take a look - CD leg is much faster. It means that market very probably could reach 1.27 at least, or may be even 1.618. When you sell at D point you want to see very harmonic AB and CD legs.
2. The way of CD leg - only up candles with closes near extremes. This is the sign of strength.

And usually, when you trade AB-CD patterns - better to move stop to b/e as soon as possible. Another excellent approach - enter 2 usual volume, and place stop according to your risk management. Then close 1 lot with profit that equals to risk - and have a riskless trade with 1 lot.
1 lot, i do not mean definitely 100 000. I mean "1" as your common lot.
 

Jyotiprakash Pal

Sergeant
Messages
225
Hi Jyotiprakash Pal,
If you trade AB-CD, then your stop should be very tight and close to "D" point.
But here I won't Sell in "D" for two reasons:
1. Take a look - CD leg is much faster. It means that market very probably could reach 1.27 at least, or may be even 1.618. When you sell at D point you want to see very harmonic AB and CD legs.
2. The way of CD leg - only up candles with closes near extremes. This is the sign of strength.

And usually, when you trade AB-CD patterns - better to move stop to b/e as soon as possible. Another excellent approach - enter 2 usual volume, and place stop according to your risk management. Then close 1 lot with profit that equals to risk - and have a riskless trade with 1 lot.
1 lot, i do not mean definitely 100 000. I mean "1" as your common lot.

Thank you so much sir :) new learn :D
I enter with 1 Micro lot sir .. when price creat his first bear candle and take .. i enter when price take out the low of this candle :) then i start moving my stoploss too next candle's high .. after 26 point ... price start too move like rocket and take out .. my +7 point stoploss :( ... i am practicing this real account sound's crazy as i am very fresh and learning harmonics but demo accounts not come with emotions :( and i need too learn money management with harmonics as well ...thanks for the advice sir .. next time i will use 2 micro :) and always keep that in mind .. that CD leg Needs too be harmonic before get in :)

Thanks for always staying with us sir .. Happy Weekend
 
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