FOREX PRO Weekly March 21-25, 2011

[Sive Morten]

Hi Sive, Do you think the EURUSD be forming into an eventual 3-drive-buy pattern on the monthly time frame?

Hi Icarus,

Hm, usually 3-drive pattern forms in the same direction as major trend but not against it, because this is a reversal pattern, market could reverse after it completed, but not before it.
Just a bit earlier on your chart you can see one, although I didn't check the ratios among tops and other stuff, but it looks nice.

 

[m0z1]

EUR/USD retracement started?

Dear Sive

Thank you for your analysis.

You mentioned that EUR/USD could retrace either from 1.4270 or 1.4190. So far it seems 1.4190 is holding.

Would you suggest shorting it till weekly pivot. Is that a possible trade with small volume and stop loss above 1.42?

Also the 4 hr chart could form B&B buy from that point.

Would like your views.

Thanks in advance.

Mili

 

[Sive Morten]

Dear Sive

Thank you for your analysis.

You mentioned that EUR/USD could retrace either from 1.4270 or 1.4190. So far it seems 1.4190 is holding.

Would you suggest shorting it till weekly pivot. Is that a possible trade with small volume and stop loss above 1.42?

Also the 4 hr chart could form B&B buy from that point.

Would like your views.

Thanks in advance.
Mili

Yes, enter short is possible, but I didn't write about it, because there was no clear signal. If you'll see some - this trade could be done.

yes, there could be a B&B or even DRPO. But looks like will know this only tomorrow.

 

[muzammil_p]

USDCHF- Butterfly accomplished?

Hi Sive,

I am one of the several members/pipruit who follows your analysis on daily basis. Needless to say, it is priceless. Thanks for all your efforts.

In the process of learning I would like to know whether butterfly pattern is completed on the daily time frame for the in USDCHF?
Is it safe to look for buying signaks at this levels?

Thnaks again for your mentoring.


Regards,

Muzammil

 

[Sive Morten]

Hi Sive,

I am one of the several members/pipruit who follows your analysis on daily basis. Needless to say, it is priceless. Thanks for all your efforts.

In the process of learning I would like to know whether butterfly pattern is completed on the daily time frame for the in USDCHF?
Is it safe to look for buying signaks at this levels?

Thnaks again for your mentoring.


Regards,

Muzammil

Hi, Muzammil
Yes, butterfly is OK and it has reached the target. But...
There is one warning sign - long black nasty bar right at the target. Usually it could point on the possible failing of butterfly pattern. This is not good for Bulls. So, If I indend to trade this - I will be very caution. Probably you should reduce trading volume, or even skip this pattern.
Besides, butteflies are not neccesary finish at 1.618. They could reach 2.0, 2.618 and so on... 1.272 and 1.618 are just most often and common targets.

 

[Sive Morten]

EUR/USD Daily Update, Tue 22, March 2011

Hello everybody,
Well market shows the real strength and the only direction for trading is upward.
But, let's take a look at charts:

Daily
Here trend is obviously bullish. Market is not overbought yet. As you know from our weekly research our medium term target it 1.4350-1.4410 area - that's where market is going I believe.
Still, market has hit 1.618 Butterfly "Sell" target and stands near resistance - weekly pivot resistance 1 at 1.4257. I do not want to buy just under resistance and prefer do it from pullback. I do not know will it take place or not, but odds suggest that currently is not perfect area to Buy.

4-hour chart.
Here you also can see, that just above the market 1.618 Extension target, that market should hit. Also, current thrust up is nice, although it's not perfect, but I think that it suitable for possible bearish directional signal - for example for DRPO Sell. If it will happen - then possibly we will be able to buy from weekly pivot and Confluence support area around 1.4050.

That's being said, although market bias is strongly bullish, market stands at resistance and I do not want to buy here. I will track, how market will behave around this resistance. I hope that we can see some bearish signal, that could lead market to retracement low. If it will happen - then nice area to enter Long - 1.4050

P.S.
The first part in third chapter of Military school has been released:
https://www.forexpeacearmy.com/forex-forum/forex-military-school/

 

[Sive Morten]

EUR/USD US Pre-open

Ok, Guys
market has hit 4-hour 1.618 target. Now I see some signs of retracement lower, but no particular bearish directionals still - only single black candle on hourly chart.
It is an evening in Europe already, so I suppose, that I will be able to take a clear view only tomorrow.
Share with me with your thoughts about market behavior on US trading sesion - if you'll see something interesting...

 

[ochills]

Thanks for Your GREAT ANALYSIS

Good work Sive.
Thanks

 

[Paul McConnell]

Target hit!!

Hiya Sive.
Once again the target that you predicted (1.4250) HIT. Then a 70 pip sell off
and despite a bullish piercing line the market only managed in three hours during US session a 50% fib retracement back up to 1.4214
Not a very strong upthrust. Hourly MACD bearish and my two cents worth suggests further retracements to the downside.
Congratulations on target met!!
Regards,
Paul

 

[m0z1]

EUR/USD 4hr chart DRPO?

Dear Sive

Although on your chart there is a clear close below the 3*3 SMA on the spot market the close is not nearly there. It has also hit (nearly) weekly pivot resistance. On the 4hr chart there is a close below the 3*3 SMA. So can we consider this as DRPO and trade it accordingly?

Your view is highly appreciated.

Thanks in advance.

Mili.