Forex FOREX PRO WEEKLY, March 21 - 25, 2022

[Sive Morten]

Thanks for being here for us. I got it now. But if retracement starts on resistance now where could it end?

Commonly it is 30% of the butterfly whole swing. But, as it is not started yet, it is impossible to say with precision. We could take a look only at Fib levels. Once we get some extensions down, it becomes possible to calculate the targets better.

 

[anthony egbiwe]

Thanks master sive, for all your swift and good response

 

[jianean]

Hi Guys and Gals,

Just thought it might be a helpful idea to let "everyone" know that Sive has recently added a 'Subtitles' facility, for use with the daily videos. This could be of particular interest to anyone else with a hearing disability. I have found it to be a massive assistance.
For anyone who is unaware, it is located in the bottom right hand side of the video window, and it is the icon immediately to the left of the 'cogwheel'.

 

[Joshnix]

This market doesn't know it's elbow from it's *******! Break down short, climb back up.

 

[Sive Morten]

Morning guys,

This is actually the sub for weekly report, but, in two words... Putin yesterday said that payment for gas should be made in Rubles. Other commodities follow soon, I suspect. Second - there will be problems with wheat this year. Seeding in Ukraine mostly fails and russian wheat will be spend to feed Ukraine. Wheat probably also will be sold for Rubles.
EU has really bad situation - to meet lack of gas and wheat or to ease sanctions, free Russian Central Bank reserves and join Russian Banking system. But something tells me that the US doesn't let them to do it. Because Russia's demarche out from dollar space is big bad precedent, although it has no decisive meaning due to the overall trading turnover.
Second - in the mid April it is high degree of military escalation as Poland and Hungary could invade in western Ukraine trying to set control over 4-5 western regions. Hardly this satisfy Russia.
So these two events tells that EUR has dark future. Although we have 1.0930 support still, and maybe it will be respected tactically, but it seems that upward bounce is over and we should be ready for drop under 1.08:

On 4H chart our grabber has worked:

Despite that EUR shows slow action, but by market swings analysis it seems it should reach our next OP target around 1.0930. Minor upside ab-cd is erased, as well as chance to see larger reverse H&S pattern. Both moments looks bearish:

Thus, if you intend to make scalp buy on EUR - wait for 1.0930-1.0940 area. The same tactical bounce from this level might be used for short position taking on daily time frame later in the week (or maybe next week).

 

[Sipi]

"Second - in the mid April it is high degree of military escalation as Poland and Hungary could invade in western Ukraine trying to set control over 4-5 western regions."

Dear Sive!
What are you basing this statement on? Is there any reality to this? That would be a tragedy if it happened.
I hope this is just some kind of misconception!

 

[Joshnix]

"At a time when it is essential to avoid fissures in what’s been a largely unified Western response to Russia, the U.S. president will look to press important allies like Poland to dial back the idea of deploying a Western peacekeeping mission to Ukraine. It’s an idea that the U.S. and some other NATO members see as too risky as they seek to deny Russia any pretext to broaden the war beyond Ukraine’s borders."

Biden pledges new Ukraine aid, warns Russia on chem weapons

U.S. President Joe Biden says after meeting with NATO and G-7 leaders that more aid is being sent to Ukraine and that a chemical attack by Russia “would trigger a response in kind.”

apnews.com

 

[Sive Morten]

Dear Sive!
What are you basing this statement on? Is there any reality to this? That would be a tragedy if it happened.
I hope this is just some kind of misconception!

Hi mate, indeed, I can't call it in any other way as a "tragedy", and I wish that it never happens. We have only indirect signs by far, that's why I call it just a "risk" for now, among other risks that we have. But in current situation, I wouldn't deny anything.

As Joshnix shows - this subject indeed was discussing, as we have public statement. Hopefully everything happens as it stands in this statement above.

The major thing why I'm telling this in videos - to explain the price performance. This is not because I accuse somebody and try to find political truth. My task is different - explain why EUR might be under pressure. And what factors now make impact on sentiment. That's all.

 

[Sive Morten]

Morning guys,

It seems that market totally lost the direction and falls indecision mode. Price swings are very narrow, activity is dropped to lowest levels and the whole week, it is just 50 pips action day by day. This is because of big flows of different statements now and market is totally confused. Two days ago it was about gas and rubbles, yesterday it was Biden visit to Brussels, NATO summit and today is few EU countries deny to make payments in rubbles. Now market is absolutely confused how to treat it - either as official statement or just a rhetoric without political decision.
Just take a look at EU gas price to understand why it is important:

The narrowing supply could lead to tragedy. And now it seems that we closer to it than never before.
Now, if we take a look at daily EUR chart - it is few that has changed there. MACD trend bullish, market stands above support, keeping theoretical chances on upward continuation. But, personally, I feel uncomfortable to buy it, although technically it is possible:

If gas decision comes in weekend - just imagine what could happen with your long position on Monday. This is absolutely unnecessary risk.

On 1H chart, price stands in tight range. Our extension and butterfly pattern are valid by far. Still, EUR is trying to move higher and reaching of minor XOP erases the butterfly. At the same time it doesn't change the situation significantly.

Since I'm gravitating to bearish fundamental events that do not agree yet with technical picture - my decision is to be aside by far.