FOREX PRO Weekly March 28- April 01, 2011

[Sive Morten]

EUR/USD Daily Update, Tue 29, March 2011

Good morning,
As we discussed, market has accomplished AB-CD on 4-hour chart and turns to retracement up.
Now the major question - will market continue upside move right from 1.40 area, or will show deeper retracement to 1.3920?
Here is pivot point that could help us at 1.4105.

Take a look at hourly chart. we see couple of target, that market has not hit yet:
1.618 at 1.4115
1.0 from recent AB-CD at 1.4132

Both of them are above pivot. Taking into consideration the power of upside jumps, I expect that market could reach 1.4130-1.4140 area today.
But what will happen after that will give us a clue:
1. If market after 1.4140 area will return right back below pivot, then possibly we can expect move to 1.3920
2. If it will hold above it, then the continuation of upward move on daily time frame is more probable. But before enter Long we should wait, when daily trend will turn bullish.

So, conclusion:
market should hit 1.4130-1.4140 area.
The further behavior will be the key to longer term price action
This is 4-hour and 1-hour charts...

P.S.
FPA has totally released third chapter of Forex Military School and started to release forth one:

https://www.forexpeacearmy.com/forex-forum/forex-military-school/

 

[Sive Morten]

Possible GBP DRPO LAL

For those of you who like GBP/USD:

Market has reached Daily Confluence support, has shown W&R of previous lows and has formed DRPO Look-alike pattern.
The possible target of up retracement could be a weekly pivot that coicides with 1.618 target at 1.6125 area

 

[eric lew]

For those of you who like GBP/USD:

Market has reached Daily Confluence support, has shown W&R of previous lows and has formed DRPO Look-alike pattern.
The possible target of up retracement could be a weekly pivot that coicides with 1.618 target at 1.6125 area

Hi Sive,

Thanks for the heads up on GBP. I was actually planning to sell around weekly pivot area before your post. You think it could be a potentially B&B sell if it retrace till 1.6125-30 area?

 

[mjunkyard]

Some psychology

Hi Dear Sive;
Firstly, i would like to thank you for your daily videos. They're invaluable information and education! I listen to daily even if i don't trade just for the education. I simply want to move my mindset from the regular investor to your perspective, which i learned are the complete opposites.

I would like to ask you the following; I really enjoyed what you wrote about resting for 3 days. I always believed that most of the success should be attributed to the psychology.

When trading your analysis; how do you deal with sitting in front of the computer? You just sit there the whole day waiting for the setups?

I really appreciate all that you do for us.
sincerely
mjunkyard

 

[Sive Morten]

Hi Sive,

Thanks for the heads up on GBP. I was actually planning to sell around weekly pivot area before your post. You think it could be a potentially B&B sell if it retrace till 1.6125-30 area?

Hi Eric,
If it will be DRPO "Buy" then it will not be B&B "Sel"
Anyway 1.6125 is an area to watch...

Hi Dear Sive;
Firstly, i would like to thank you for your daily videos. They're invaluable information and education! I listen to daily even if i don't trade just for the education. I simply want to move my mindset from the regular investor to your perspective, which i learned are the complete opposites.

I would like to ask you the following; I really enjoyed what you wrote about resting for 3 days. I always believed that most of the success should be attributed to the psychology.

When trading your analysis; how do you deal with sitting in front of the computer? You just sit there the whole day waiting for the setups?

I really appreciate all that you do for us.
sincerely
mjunkyard

Hi Mjunkyard
In fact, I have the possibility to do so, but more often I set an alarm at my interesting points. Because I have a lot of other work.
Then, if this level has been reached - I look at price behavior and how it was reached. If everything as I've expected to see, then I trade my trading plan.
If something wrong - then I make adjustments. But I rare track the charts in real time.

When I've entered the trade and placed orders - I do not look at chart.
But if I intend to make short&fast trade (5 min, for instance), then it happens sometime - sit before monitor.

From psyche point of view - it is highly not recommended to sit&watch in real time.

 

[BackSpace]

Pivot Point

Dear Sive,

I am a bit confused.
In your analysis today you mention:
Quote: "Here is pivot point that could help us at 1.4005"

But weekly pivot point is : 14105.

Which is correct ?

Kind regards, BackSpace

 

[Sive Morten]

Dear Sive,

I am a bit confused.
In your analysis today you mention:
Quote: "Here is pivot point that could help us at 1.4005"

But weekly pivot point is : 14105.

Which is correct ?

Kind regards, BackSpace

You're right - 1.4105
1.4005 was a typo...
Sorry.

 

[Sive Morten]

EUR/USD Daily Update, Wed 30, March 2011

Good morning,
According to our yesterdays trading plan, market has hit 1.4130 area and moved below weekly pivot. So, recent price action was very sloppy and today is very difficult to make some analysis and predict possible price action. But let's think logically:

Daily
here is nothing really new, except, may be the "C" point. If it is in place already, then it shows us AB-CD pattern with target precisely at our daily Confluence support. This is an Agreement. Also keep in mind that daily trend is bearish.

4-hour
Here trend is bullish, but market stands in the range below pivot and does not confirm trend. This is a bearish sign. Also, market is forming butterfly "Buy" pattern. I will be brave to speak about 1.618 target because it in the direction of daily trend. It stands at 1.3920 - precisely in the same area - daily Confluence support.

Hourly
here trend is bearish, but we have Butterfly "Sell" here. the possible target is 1.4160 area, that is also target of large AB-CD pattern.

So, what we gonna do?
First, watch for 1.4025 area - the low of butterfly at hourly chart. If market will take it out, then we can search for possibility to enter short.

If market will move above pivot and hold there - don't be short, and expect completing of Butterfly pattern.

Daily trend is bearish currently, we do not have any bullish directional patterns, market stands below pivot - personally I'm more bearish then bullish currently. But I will not Sell, till market will not erase hourly butterfly, i.e. move below 1.4025

P.S. DRPO "BuY" context on 4-hour GBP is still valid. So, I think it worthy to be tracked...

 

[Jyotiprakash Pal]

thanks sir .. as usual so detailed

 

[dimebolt]

Thank you sir. Just one qns, where can i learn to pick up dinapoli method trading? hope u dun mind me asking this kinda qns here.