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FOREX PRO Weekly May 09-13, 2011

Discussion in 'Sive Morten- Currencies and Gold Video Analysis' started by Sive Morten, May 7, 2011.

  1. Stag

    Stag Sergeant

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    Thanks for your reply. I'm just asking this, because as far as I know, the market professionals give much attetnion to the volume linked with price action/price spread making their trading decisions solely based on this complex interrelationship.

    As Tom Williams writes in his book "Master the Market", these professionals are trading their own accounts and can see both sides of the market (current buy and sell orders). If syndicates are in the process of selling or buying large blocks of instruments, profs know these large transactions will have an immediate effect on the market, so they will also trade the futures and option contracts in order to offset or lower risk. This is why the future often seems to move before the cash. And such may give early signals to take action on the cash market.

    Any comments from you on this? Thanks in advance.
     
  2. Icarus

    Icarus Private, 1st Class

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    Hi Sive,

    I no longer trade silver or gold, but for educational purposes, xagusd is showing a RR Tracks on the monthly time frame. In this type of situation, Mr. Dinapoli says the downtrend will continue, if I am not mistaken, with strength. My questions are three -

    1) what is the point of recognition for a RR Tracks? I could not easily tell in reading his book, but it looks like it is when the end of the second bar passes the start of the first. Or is it when the second bar closes past the start of the first bar?

    2) Is the pair be likely to retrace to .382 support and produce a B&B sell down to .618 of this move?

    3) Is there a rule as to how much lower a pair goes on a RR Tracks Sell pattern? (or how much higher on a RR Tracks buy).

    Many thanks.
     
  3. Icarus

    Icarus Private, 1st Class

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    We still have a possibility on the B&B don't we? For a 1.085 target?
     
  4. jimmy.wibisono

    jimmy.wibisono Private

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    hi sive ..

    I am a newcomer to the world of forex, Can you help me give advice to use what indicators?

    I have a buy position at 1.4880 and now the price is at 1.4400

    how do you think? Because I saw at 1.5150 for sell position.

    how to use the good fibonacci retracement?

    -Thank You-
     
  5. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    Hi Georgeta, good analysis.
    If you let me I would like to clear couple of moments
    1.Monthly is OK, but there is a major 0.618 Resistance just above the market that coincides with AB-CD target and makes very important Agreement. This is an area to watch for.

    2.On weekly personally I do not treat this move up as thrust - not sufficient number of bars to my mind. But, I can be wrong. The more important that you have reverse week pattern with bearish engulfing simulteniously. Reverse week is when market creates new highs and close below the low of previous bar. This could lead to solid retracement on daily time frame.

    3. Market is oversold at daily - so your decision to wait for pullback is right.

    Since there is Confluence support - possibly it's better to take profit there. And as I've said about B&B - I'm not sure.
     
  6. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    Hi Stag. Speaking shortly - this is the question of analysis method. For instance, I use DiNapoli approach and it assumes using of volumes only in estimation so called "Squat" - small range bar with huge volume for confirmation of support and resistance.
    Still, on the bond market for investment purposes I have to track a lot of volumes - auctions and its results, speculative positions and investor's positions and some others.
    Trading volume exceptionally important on options - for trading of volatility.
    So, it depends on strategy and analysis technic. In DiNapoli method volumes are not so important.

    Hi Icarus
    1. Point of recognition is a close of second bar. That's why DiNapoli tells that it's very dangerous to anticipate RRT. If market will close, say, in the middle of the second bar - this is not RRT. So, you absolutely need confirmation
    2 and 3
    The target of RRT is a length of it's bars. Particularly most probable target. Sometimes RRT leads to long term reversal.
    But to estimate will market reach support or not - drop to daily search for AB-CD. Also, we do not want to see next bar close above 50% of RRT. IF this is true rejection of price - retracement should be shallow or abcent at all...
    Well, It has worked out. Market has hit the target - not quite, but this move in terms of B&B has accomplished, I suppose. May be it still could touch the target, but risk/reward currently looks unattractive... May be better is to skip it.
    Hi Jimmy,
    well, you've asked a very very large question. If you're new on Forex - I suggest you to do couple of things:
    1. Start with our Forex Military School. Although there is just initial information about FX, but step by step we will shift to technical analysis there, and it will be very usefull;
    2. There is an Archive of our researches - as video as text. Start to study them. You will find a lot of useful things.
     
  7. georgeta

    georgeta Sergeant

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    eurgbp

    Thank you for your valuable inputs.
    It shows that I have much more to learn.
     
  8. pip$queak

    pip$queak Recruit

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    Eurusd, Eurjpy

    Hey Sive, I am a noob to forex attempting to broaden my trading practices from just regular stocks and I've managed to make my debut right on the eve of the situation with the above pairs during the thursday/ friday massacre. Couldn't have picked a better week right?!? Anyway, I've naturally got myself caught in a couple of long positions as they were both following a similar trend and I'm trying to decide whether to ride the storm out or just close them and accept the damage. I got on these around the lower 1.45 range of the EURUSD and the loses or gains will be about the same on both. Obviously I didn't realize the situation with the Greeks, Germans and ECB before I did this. I was just testing the account with a couple of scalps at the time and then... well you know. I realize it's probly still too early to tell for the week, and if I understand correctly it is believed we could see the retracement to the 1.40-1.41 range before it might return but... well I'm just looking for a general idea of what I should do with this. Any suggestion would be GREATLY appreciated. It is a FinFx ECN account on 100:1 with $2500... well it was anyway. (LOL) And thanks for your efforts on FPA!
     
  9. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    Hi Pipsqueak,
    you've asked the major question - what to do with losing position. (why nobody asks about profitable one, heh).
    When you take any position - you have to have some context for that, i.e. reason, why you take particularly this position - bullish or bearish.
    In a kind of situation that you discribe I try to follow the rule - if your context and reason has not realized or canceled by the market - get out from the market. Of cause, its better to do with predetermined stop loss, that does not exceed 2% of your total assets. But if this is not the case - this is much harder to do. In this scenario - this is very personal, I can't take responsibility for that if I will advise to you just exit.
    But in general taking losing position without stop loss will force your mind and you will not be able think clearly due to psycological pressure. It means that you are not prepared for further trading.
    So, decide by yourself - take loss and be free and open for futher trading. Or, hold this position with hope that possibly it will turn to profit or reduce loss a bit.
    That's why placing stop is so important - you can take some loss that will not be very hurt for your psyche and you will easily forget it and prepare for further trades.
    Speaking about current situation - normal price action suggest that there should be some upside pullback. But where it will start from - currently or 1.40 - now is very difficult to say, because now there is no bullish signs of reversal on intraday charts. Better to think about worse scenario - 1.40. (even this may be not worse), but I think, that this level very suitable for solid support and possible pullback.
    So, the choice is up to you...
     
  10. nicolebobbin

    nicolebobbin Private

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    Thank you Sive for your excellent analysis again
    I long EU last Friday at 1.4513, any change I could take profit ?
     

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