FOREX PRO Weekly May 09-13, 2011

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
12,854
EUR/USD Daily Update, Wed 11, May 2011

Hello everybody,
Looks like pullback, that we've discussed yesterday has started. Also, as you can see on daily chart yesterday's trading session was an inside day.
Today plan is simple:

Watch for 1.4480-1.4520 area. This is strong resistance - Fib resistance and weekly pivot point.
If you've entered long yesterday - this is an area where you probably should think about taking profit from scalp trade.
If you're bearish - watch for clear sell signals there to ride the daily downside momentum.

On 4 hour chart we see, that this is also an area where some targets stand.
First - this is 1.27 extension of Butterfly "Sell" that has been appointed by Georgeta (thanks, nice work).
Second, this is 1.618 target of DRPO "Buy" that is still working.

And the last thing. IF market will break pivot and hold above it - then, possibly weekly B&B has really started. In this case target is 1.4670-1.47 area.

If market will fail around the pivot and accelerates to the downside - next target is weekly Confluence support 1.40-1.4140.
 

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Icarus

Private, 1st Class
Messages
81
Hi Sive, On today's video, you mention 1.4664 as a possible start of B&B trade. I thought the retracement area for a B&B was .382 of the whole move down, which would be around 1.4500. Have I confused this with something else?
 

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
12,854
Hi Sive, On today's video, you mention 1.4664 as a possible start of B&B trade. I thought the retracement area for a B&B was .382 of the whole move down, which would be around 1.4500. Have I confused this with something else?
Hi Icarus,
1.4664 -1.47 is a target of B&B if it has really started, not the start point.
Hence - target of B&B is 0.618 level, not 0.382. ;)
 

Sipi

Private, 1st Class
Messages
31
SMA 50 (daily)

Hi Sive!

What is your opinion about this level (1,43) could keep, like it did previous two days?

could not.
 
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Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
12,854
EUR/USD Daily Update, Thu 12, May 2011

Good morning,
although we've expected a bit deeper retracement up - this has not happened and market collapsed again. But this tells us that weekly B&B has not started yet. Hence, the next area to watch for - as a potential support, where it could start - 1.40-1.4140 weekly Confluence support. Here is also daily oversold and weekly pivot support 1.

On 4-hour chart we see that market has reached 100% Fib target and 3-drive Buy, that we've discussed in the beginning of the week. Also here is a MACD Divergence. But really this is not a big deal currently.
The point is that we want to trade weekly B&B "Buy" pattern. And as you understand, if market intends to turn to solid retracement on weekly - it should show some clear pattern on daily and some reversal pattern on 4-hour chart (may be reverse H&S or something).
Possibly in could be, say, bullish engulfing on daily with W&R of previous lows, and classical reversal pattern on intraday charts.
Until that will happen - I will not enter long, besides, there are no clear buy singals as on daily as on 4-hour yet.
Second - our 3 drive could transform to larger one - if 1&2 drives will be first drive and third will become second - then market could show additional move down to complete it.
If you're scalp trader, possibly you can try to sell from some retracement from recent swing down with the target around weekly pivot support 1. But, this is just an assumption, based on daily trend and the fact that market is not at oversold. The question still remains how it will work...
 

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ALF

Private, 1st Class
Messages
62
Hi Sive

Thanks for your analysis.

Please, would you be so kind us to tell us what is the long term statistics on the success rate of your live account’s trading.

It will be very useful for us. Thanks!

Have a nice day!
 

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
12,854
Hi Sive

Thanks for your analysis.

Please, would you be so kind us to tell us what is the long term statistics on the success rate of your live account’s trading.

It will be very useful for us. Thanks!

Have a nice day!
Here is the demo, that I've traded here for about a year:
Sive Morten Signals - Forex Trading Signals Test by Forex Peace Army
Currently, I work at Forex Military School and not trade here. But when I will finish it, we intend to reestablish demo trading, or even small real...
 
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