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FOREX PRO Weekly May 09-13, 2011

Discussion in 'Sive Morten- Currencies and Gold Video Analysis' started by Sive Morten, May 7, 2011.

  1. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    Hi Icarus, and Pckeys

    DRPO is a reversal pattern, so target should be below the pattern in AUD case. Usually the minimum target of DRPO is 1.0-1.27 extension from ABC pattern, that based on the tops of DRPO.

    But on AUD is not DRPO due to couple of reasons - too deep first penetration of 3x3 and tops are not equal. This looks more like triangle consolidation or something like that...
     
  2. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    EUR/USD Daily Update, Fri 13, May 2011

    Good morning,
    yesterday market has hit pivot support 1 and nearest weekly Fib support at 1.4138. Also, current week is showing second close below 3x3 on Weekly time frame. So, it's optimal if B&B will start from this area.

    On daily time frame I do not see any reversal patterns, may be except hammer at support. So, major interest for us comes from 4-hour chart.

    1. First, market has hit 1.0 extension and Agreement area at 1.4146. Second, it has formed Morning star pattern. Third - you can see solid MACD divergence right at strong daily support area, and the last one, - this could be potential H&S reversal pattern, because recent low is 1.618 ext from the previous retracement up. This is very typical for H&S patterns.

    So, what we could do today? WE don't see H&S yet, and may be we will not see at all... All that we have currently is a bullish candlestick patterns.
    That's why make your choice.
    1. If you conservative trader - wait for clearer signals, such as reverse H&S or something. At least some up thrust from this strong support.
    2. If you agressive trader - you may trade candlestick pattern itself - stop below the low. You will get huge advantages:
    1. If market will turn to H&S - you have exellent position right at the bottom of the head with outstanding risk/reward ratio (target 1.4616).
    2. All big things start from small ones.
    3. Your risk is very shallow. So, even you will become wrong - you will not loose much.
    The major risk for you, is that we do not have currently nothing solid. Just shallow candlestick pattern.

    Possibly it's worth to try it. But again, I can't take responsibility for you - the choice is up to you - get more warranty but worse enter, or more risk and excellent enter point.
     

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  3. georgeta

    georgeta Sergeant

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    Eurgbp

    Hello Sive!
    I think that your view on EURUD on Friday showed the great experience and knowlege in FX.
    Now, if you are so kind... :) ... my EURGBP :)

    Monthly: I think bulls are showing that they are week. Even if market closed 2 times above 38.2 resistance, the price did not reach 61.8 and returned below 38.2. This was also Confluence and Agreement. Trend remains bullish.

    Weekly: Trend just turns bearish. Stop Graber is still easily possible because market stands at strong support.

    Daily: Two inside days in a row. Market could explode. Upside is more probable as I can see on Daily chart. Just below the market is strong support.

    H4: very interesting. Market missed 100 expansion by a few pips and now returns. Trend is bullish but price action not. I would like to wait for the price to retrace to w.pivot and sell. R/R ratio good but not so great.

    Price can also climb to WR1 and complete H&S. So I will track price action around pivot.

    H1: shows that WR1 is also Confluence resistance, so this is a great place to place stops if bearish

    I do not know exactly how to proceed. Is waiting for directional paterns the only way or I should take the risk and place orders?

    Thank you!
     

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  4. georgeta

    georgeta Sergeant

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    one more chart

    this is one more chart
     

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  5. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    1. On monthly market is forming bearish engulfing pattern, at resistance and Agreement. Possibly it's better to use as "A" point the low two bars to the right.
    2.On weekly the same, but has been formed - reversal week and bearish engulfing. Concerning Stop grabber - situation is very similar to EUR/USD on weekly, but thrust is not so good here.
    3.Use as A point next bar - then you'll see that 1.0 target has been hit. Also, I suspect that there should be divergence with MACD on daily.
    So - major conlusion - market at monthly and daily target and resistance with divergence with MACD. Also the last trading session is a small W&R of previous highs. I suggest that overall context is bearish...
    4. Concerning H&S - it very often fails, especially on hourly chart.

    I do not see solid patterns currenty to enter the market. May be it's better to wait some clearer signs. For instance, if H&S will fail - this will let you to enter short, or something like that...

    Try to use some Overbought oversold analysis. Momentum indicator (1;7) is very good, if you do not have, DOSC or OScillator predictor.
    Wait new chapters in Military School. Very soon there will be published some advance material, that you'll never find anywhere else. Including Oversold overbought analysis.
     

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