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FOREX PRO WEEKLY, November 01-05, 2010

Discussion in 'Sive Morten- Currencies and Gold Video Analysis' started by Sive Morten, Oct 30, 2010.

  1. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    Monthly

    Look at this compressed chart #1 – 1.40-1.45 is a long term 0.618 Fib support that holds market since 90’s. In the recent time market has touched this level twice and retraced.
    #1
    [​IMG]
    Current monthly trend is bullish. BC move down has been held by 0.786 Fib support from AB leg. Also take a note, that in C point market has tried to turn trend bearish but failed and trend has returned to bullish very fast. For the recent 3 months market is flirting with 0.618 Fib resistance and finally has closed above it. The single target that is currently logic is a nearest one – 0.618 Fib expansion from ABC-bottom pattern at 1.6422 that makes an Agreement with 0.786 Fib resistance. Next target is 100% expansion at 1.7778 that also creates an Agreement with Fib resistance, but it’s not logical now, because it beyond monthly overbought level that is a blue line of Oscillator Predictor on the chart. So, currently we have a single monthly target not far above the market. This upside context will be valid until minimum in C point holds.
    #2
    [​IMG]

    Weekly
    The situation on weekly time frame has become clearer now. During the previous week the main question was which one support area will hold the market – 1.5385 or 1.5650. Looks like that the latter one has done well. Also I’ve told that MACD Predictor comes in play on recent week, and if I will see MACDP failure pattern - will be much better. So, that has almost happened. Although the value of MACDP for recent week is 15658.95 and the low was 1.5659, I think that we can tell that there is a Stop grabber. It means that previous highs at 1.61 should be taken out by the price. Also take a note, that monthly pivot has held the market well. This is the sign of strength. The next weekly target is 61.8% Fib expansion at 1.6315. November pivot is 1.5918.
    [​IMG]

    Daily
    ...Couple of important moments here. Daily trend turns bullish. Now all three time frames have confirmed bullish trend. On the chart#1 you can see how daily and weekly Confluence support with monthly pivot point has held the market and we see nice move up. Now, take a look at ABC-bottom pattern. The nearest target is 0.618% Fib expansion at 1.6113 and it just above the previous highs. 100% expansion target at 1.6405 is beyond the daily overbought level and not quite logical currently, but take a note that in very close to our monthly and weekly targets.
    The blue line on the chart is Oscillator Predictor that shows level of overbought and market is close to it. I do not know exactly, will market touch target first at 1.6113 and retraced then or retrace first and only then will move to the target. But 4-hour chart analysis tells that the probability of initial retracement not small.
    #1
    [​IMG]
    On #2 chart we can see support levels from the recent swing up. I think that the primary level for looking any ‘Buy’ signals around it is 1.5888-1.5918, because it includes monthly and weekly pivots and Fib support level. If bulls are still in charge, market should hold above pivots. At the same time I have to say that daily trend remains bullish even at 5/8 Fib support at 1.5793 and weekly pivot support 1. But, again – moving market below monthly and weekly pivots is a sign of weakness, and I prefer to see that market will hold above them.
    #2
    [​IMG]

    4-Hour
    This chart looks a bit complicated, so let’s move through it step by step. The red line is MACDP and you can see that 4-hour chart is also bullish and remain bullish until 1.5910 area roughly that precisely coincides with an area between monthly and weekly pivot points. Second of all, look at the first ABC-bottom pattern – market has reach 1.618 Fib expansion at 1.6019 on Friday. Also, market has reached 100% expansion from more recent ABC and exceeded it. It means that market can reach 1.618 expansion at 1.6124 after some retracement lower. This target is very close to daily 1.6113 target and also above the previous highs. It means that with solid probability this highs will not hold.
    Now, just below the market 4-hour Confluence support at 1.5932-1.5936 and 1.5904-1.5918 are pivot points. This is an area that we should look for to establish “Long” position. If market will move below it, don’t be hasty to enter long.
    [​IMG]

    Conclusion:
    Long-term.
    I still think that market should reach 1.64 area. Monthly bullish context is still valid.
    Short term
    In the beginning of the coming week I will be track the price action around 1.59-1.5930 area. If market will hold there – the previous highs will be taken out by the price. The nearest target is 1.6113-1.6125 area. This scenario also confirmed by weekly MACDP failure pattern. But you should not to marry any position because market is close to daily overbought level.


    The technical portion of Sive's analysis owes a great deal to Joe DiNapoli's methods, and uses a number of Joe's proprietary indicators. Please note that Sive's analysis is his own view of the market and is not endorsed by Joe DiNapoli or any related companies.
     
  2. DumbAsArock

    DumbAsArock Private, 1st Class

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    Hello Sive,

    Which currency pair is this for? I assume GBP/USD.

    Thanks
     
  3. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    USD/CHF Daily Update, Tue 02, November 2010

    Hello, everybody,

    CHF has an excellent context for weekly B&B "Sell" trade. On the weekly time frame market shows perfect thrust down and has closed above 3x3 on the previous week for the first time. Also market has hit 0.382 Fib resistance that is also a daily Confluence resistance.

    On hourly chart market accomplished 1.27 butterfly 'Sell" pattern and hit weekly pivot resistance 1. So, market stands under strong resistance - Weekly pivot resistance 1 and daily Confluence resistance + 1.27 Butterfly 'Sell".
    If market will take out the lows of thrust bar on hourly chart and move below previous extremes, then, possibly we can say that B&B has started.
    The target of B&B is 0.9660-0.97 area.
     

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  4. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    USD/CHF Daily Update, Wed 03, Nov 2010

    Good morning,
    let's continue to track our USD/CHF trade. There is another possibility to enter short. Market starts the retracement to the upside. There are couple of levels that are suitable for that -
    First area is 0.9804-0.9814 - Weekly Pivot, previous extremes and 3/8 Fib resistance and second one is 0.9840-0.9850 hourly Fib Confluence resistance.
    Today is a very volatile day - FOMC Announcement, ADP Data etc, so, very difficult to have sufficient confidence to promise something definite. But, I suppose that 0.9840-0.9850 should hold, if bears still in charge.

    Also, take a note, that market breaks parallel channel to the downside. very often market shows AB-CD retracements rather than just AB retracement.
     

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  5. m0z1

    m0z1 Private, 1st Class

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    GBP/USD weekly target

    Hi Sive

    As we have just seen GBP/USD reached the weekly target (1.6124) without retracing till 1.59 although it did retrace till 1.5958. My question is what will happen now? Will it continue its upward movement or will it steady itself? How should we possess ourselves for this currency?

    Thanks
    Mili
     
  6. cosmos

    cosmos Sergeant

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    Hi Sive, Can you speak on the NZDUSD? This pair did drop to 0.7712 after achieving our original target, but now has exceeded that target by over 100 pips. Or are we looking at an A-B-C-D extension to 1.618? Thank you.
     
    #6 cosmos, Nov 3, 2010
    Last edited: Nov 3, 2010
  7. Icarus

    Icarus Private, 1st Class

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    Hello Sive. I wonder your thoughts on the EURUSD - Do you think this pair is still in the butterfly pattern mentioned earlier with targets to 1.42/1.44? If so, do you see any good entry points at this level? Also, USDJPY has missed double repo target by 1 pip. Do you think this is good enough for entry? If so, what would be a good level to enter and with what stop loss? Thank you for your kind assistance and education.
     
  8. cosmos

    cosmos Sergeant

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    One more question on XAU_USD. This pair has closed below, above and then below again on the daily time frame. Is this a double repo sell signal? Or is this signal invalidated because it surpassed the .618 level to the upside after the second close below the 3x3?
     
  9. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    USD/JPY Daily Update, November 04, 2010

    Good morning Ladies and Gentlemen,

    How are you after the previous night heh?

    Ok, USD/CHF trade has been accomplished, market has reached 1.618 target from a whole move of butterfly Sell.

    Let's shift to JPY. I know that data was negative for USD, and guys on CNBC start screaming that USD will stay under pressure etc, but we should trade our trading plan. And I see DRPO Buy on USD/JPY. Also take a note that on Futures market JPY Has reached weekly 100% expansion target and on daily shows MACDP failure pattern and DRPO. Also it can coincides with Butterfly on 4-hour chart. My expectation is that market can show retracement up to 82.40 area. But risk is up to you - to take this trade or not. Current situation is very tricky, and tomorrow will be NFP release. I expect better than expected number - around 80K BTW...
     

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  10. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    No, this is not a DRPO - Review AUD/USD video, where I've talked about DRPO. DRPO needs to be a fast pattern. Gold has too long consolidation between tops, and market has reached daily Confluence support during the first penetration.
     

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