FOREX PRO Weekly November 05-09, 2012

[BeeKay8]

WOOHOOOO!!! OBAMA REELECTED! the world is very happy with the americans right now.

 

[seedof]

Obama reelected! So we expect weak dollar for the time being right? Thats what i dug up.

 

[pragmatic]

I guess I just want to brag a little because I caught the DRPO. On my software it shows as clear as the sun. They might put the text on as well.

Anyway, because some of us talked about what Sive is doing, I want to add something. The service that Sive Morten is providing here it is the most serious thing I ever encountered. I have never met a person so committed and so responsible and I guess there aren't many. I was a recruit here some years ago but I could only imagine that Sive Morten would be by our side day-by-day, on holidays, on weekends, no matter if he is ill or lacks the inspiration.
I am not a good trader, I don't know if I will ever be a trader, but I lost nothing in this insidious game called "trading" due to Sive. There aren't many novices that can say this. And if I will ever trade for income I know I have a chance only because of the service that Sive is providing here every day.

Thank you Sive Morten!

 

[Sive Morten]

I guess I just want to brag a little because I caught the DRPO. On my software it shows as clear as the sun.

Nice shot, Pragmatic.
I've suspected that it might look different (look at my 4 hour chart), but that is a problem of 24/5 spot market... We can do nothing with it, unfortunately.

 

[Johan Andersson]

Thanks alot, that made my day. We have a situation right now in EurUsd were it can become a DPO or B&B .

Hi Johan

Its just the 3 SMA shifted by 3 periods, so put 3 in the Shift parameter.

All the best

Michael

 

[BeeKay8]

Very, very interesting price action.

Some sort of W&R after hitting 127.2% extension on hourly AB-CD.....

Can't wait for Sive's next update to get more of an understanding of what is going on.

Current price is 1.2788. Maybe market is heading towards k-support on daily chart now?

Not to mention WPP was not touched. Very interesting.

 

[Anu]

For me, more interesting fact is Sive Calling it's risky to join the upward move and saying he would wait till it hit the price level to join the downward move.

 

[georgeta]

Bearish

Hello Mr. Morten!
I was very discouraged today because I missed the bearish move. The fact is that it was not difficult to go short. The price just revisited the 61.8 disrespected target. It was a DRPO lol Sell right in that area on M15, so in theory it should be easy.

The truth is that I cannot dream to go short on a strong up move like that but someone like you can do that. That is because you had a Bearish view all this time.

How could you predict this move? Is it just the development of the Weekly flag? I dont know if I will ever be able to spot something like that. Is it all hopeless?

Thank you!

 

[BeeKay8]

For me, more interesting fact is Sive Calling it's risky to join the upward move and saying he would wait till it hit the price level to join the downward move.

Anu,

I agree but we did not really even hit "price level" to join downward move.

After we had major thrust up, about 90 pips, and after just hitting 127.2% extension with ONE BAR on the 4hr chart, MOST would suspect (at least I did) upward move would continue, AT LEAST to 161.8 area + WPP and maybe even hitting k-resistance on 4hr.

The fact that there was ONLY ONE BAR UP and hitting 127.2% extension and then we see a 140 pip down move that has even retested the lows AND went below it is very interesting in my opinion.

The truth is that I cannot dream to go short on a strong up move like that but someone like you can do that. That is because you had a Bearish view all this time.

How could you predict this move? Is it just the development of the Weekly flag? I dont know if I will ever be able to spot something like that. Is it all hopeless?

Maybe Sive will have different opinion but for me, it was hard to join the downward move. It was very fast and unexpected.

At first, I thought it would just be a 3/8 retracement to 1.2840 level of the thrust up but obviously that was not the case.

I do not think it would have been logical to enter short @ 1.2870 area (which was the high) because:
1) ALL intraday charts bullish
2) ONE big thrust up and we hit target of 127.2% extension for hourly AB-CD.
3) Not yet touch WPP, or even minor 5/8 resistance, or even k-resistance on h4 - all these targets were ~25 pips higher

Also, for the DRPO, for me at least,I believe it also would have been hard to enter short based solely on that pattern because first of all, it was on 15 minute chart. Second of all, target of DRPO which was 1.2830 was INSIDE the 38.2 + 61.8 support of the swing up that we had during elections last night. This led me to believe that it could just be a retracement down to 3/8 support or MAYBE even to 5/8 support and then continue to the upside and eventually hitting 161.8% extension of hourly AB-CD, WPP, and k-resistance on 4hr TF.

 

[pardus]

Hi Pardus,
Hm. I'm not sure gold is a gold, while eur is eur

superficial resemblance comes mostly due relation to USD, since as EUR as Gold price are quoted relative to USD.
But if you will check correlation, I think that you will get not very encouraging result.

Hi, Sive.
Thank you for the reply
I watched action of gold and euro that day, and as you said, there is some resemblance,
but it's very difficult to track it, especially for my level of knowledge,
and it's best to leave them separate

I have one fundamental question.
How should we look at the Bank of England decisions and overall GB economic situation ?
Of course, they make decisions for GBP, but GB is member of EU too.
Do their decisions or GB economic condition also have an impact on EUR ?
I understand that Germany and France have the most influence, but I can't put GB in EU picture correctly
Thank you.