Forex FOREX PRO WEEKLY, November 05 - 09, 2018

[anthony egbiwe]

you guys are all wonderful people for providing such a free insight and learning opportunities to slow learner like me .
please keep it up God bless you all in Jesus name .Amen

 

[Deltoid88]

Stag, Deltoid you're giving so great insight on the market, so I'm start thinking about pension retirement

Haha! Do not even think about retirement, Sir Sive. You are locomotive, we just follow Glad you find my analysis helpful.

 

[Deltoid88]

Beautiful short opportunity on GBP. Think that finally blue wave A is completed, and that ABC correction can start. Think that we are at wave 3 of wave 3 of red wave A to the downside. TP rectangle zone, SL=1.3180, just above blue wave A.

Update on GBP short position. For now everything develops according to plan, I expect further drop to rectangle zone either with first red wave A or with red ABC correction. Current tactic - sell on rallies, every move higher should be seen as short opportunity. Some of the fib levels could be entry zone, or even above them. SL=1.3175.

 

[Deltoid88]

I keep bullish view on EUR. I simply do not see EUR breaking down 1.13 support. Believe that we are still in blue wave 2, which happens to be expanded flat after bullish, impulsive blue wave 1. I would not be surprised if impulsive blue wave 3 start very soon and want to be positioned for it before it start. Already have longs on 1.1360 and will increase them in 1.13-1.1350 zone. Expect minor bounce to complete red wave 4 in smaller rectangle on 1H chart and then drop for final red wave 5 to complete red wave C and blue wave 2, after that I expect bounce toward 1.1620 zone. SL for long positions 1.1290.

I simply do not see continuation of downward move, think that bigger blue wave B on daily chart is finished.

 

[Sive Morten]

Morning guys,

Fed has given widely expected result yesterday, keeping course on further rate increasing. As a result market expectations on rate hike in December have returned to former 80+% level where it was 2-3 weeks ago.
Taking in consideration slightly bearish backround and sentiment on EUR, that we've talked about through the week, EUR has dropped lower and keep chances on our 3-Drive scenario with drop below 1.13 area.
To re-establish bullish picture, market will have to move above 1.15 tops. Until this moment overall technical view is bearish with next downside target around 1.1235

On 4H chart there are two important moments. First is, market has dropped below "C" point and erased our AB-CD pattern. Second - it has broken all meaningful support levels. This kind of action hardly could be treated as retracement. Besides we see good thrusting action and it could be used for B&B setup, I suppose:

On 1H chart we have another, steep AB-CD pattern, and CD leg shows acceleration. Market has hit OP target recently. Usually when EUR takes the course, it shows small retracements. Here we could watch for either nearest Fib level, or it would be great if we would get pullback to 1.14 K-resistance. This is primary area for taking short position, especially if upside action will take the shape of "222" Sell pattern. Harmonic retracement size points on 1.1394 level:

 

[Robban68]

The easy part of the move done. Nothing bullish so far, they need to close the week above 1.1383 or we will go lower next week. Some support 1.1342/1.1345 and 1.1318.
The week ATR could reach 1.131, being below mention numbers and close the week above 1.1383 will put me in a buy mode next week for 1.15/1.156. Otherwise I will continue trail the shorts.

 

[Deltoid88]

I keep bullish view on EUR. I simply do not see EUR breaking down 1.13 support. Believe that we are still in blue wave 2, which happens to be expanded flat after bullish, impulsive blue wave 1. I would not be surprised if impulsive blue wave 3 start very soon and want to be positioned for it before it start. Already have longs on 1.1360 and will increase them in 1.13-1.1350 zone. Expect minor bounce to complete red wave 4 in smaller rectangle on 1H chart and then drop for final red wave 5 to complete red wave C and blue wave 2, after that I expect bounce toward 1.1620 zone. SL for long positions 1.1290.

I simply do not see continuation of downward move, think that bigger blue wave B on daily chart is finished.

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Important update on EUR. Although scenario above still stands in theory, it is highly unlikely it will happen. I do not advise to follow that plan. I have completely changed my views on EUR. I strongly believe I was completely wrong with my bullish view, and want to admit that now, before it collapse completely. I am just looking for short entries now. It looks like this recent top on 1.150 was completion of red wave B which happened to be expanded flat. That means new fresh downside action has started, red wave C (or even wave 3). EUR can drop much, much lower! Wave C should be made of 5 waves to the downside and we are currently in 1st wave.

On 1H chart I think we are in wave 4 of wave 1 of wave C which will be expanded flat. I hope to retracement in rectangle zone for completion of wave 4 and start of wave 5. That wave 5 would probably break 1.130 support, and lead us to 1.1150-1.1240.

Strategy is quite simply and it has great chance of success, just open shorts on any really to upside in 1.1360-1.1490 zone and chase 1.1185-1.1240 targets as for now. Later my downside targets will be in 1.08-1.10 zone. 1.150 is absolute KEY RESISTANCE! SL=1.150

I am on board with Sir Sive, it looks like he was right all along.

Weekly chart:

4H chart:

1H chart:

Plan - shorting against 1.15 top, TP 1.10-1.1240. This looks very probable for me.

 

[Sive Morten]

mportant update on EUR. Although scenario above still stands in theory, it is highly unlikely it will happen. I do not advise to follow that plan. I have completely changed my views on EUR. I strongly believe I was completely wrong with my bullish view, and want to admit that now, before it collapse completely

Well, upturn is still possible after completion of some downside targets. It's a question for how long Fed fuel will last for USD... It is interesting what EUR reaction will be on one of our lower targets.

 

[gwynfor]

but I far prefer to trade with Sive's view not against it.

Oh for the patience to stick to my beliefs !

Actually my sell order would have worked well if I had "forgotten " to put in a stop loss ! But having had an active trade on when the SNB wiped Alpari off the map and having suffered a margin call in the Greek banking crisis I am very wary.

Yet, on reflection maybe a hedging strategy would make some sense - might try it on demo for a while.

Task for the weekend - is there a feasible wave count to explain the week's market action consistent with Sive's view. Ending diagonal from September's 1.1812 perhaps. I'll post it next week if it I find one I'm happy with.

Thanks all and happy weekend.

 

[Deltoid88]

It's a question for how long Fed fuel will last for USD...

In my view FED was no event, just market was slow because of FED before the FED, and when FED was over market could continue its move to downside. Simple psychology behind big event. FED's fuel would be over very soon, maybe it is already over. My current view is only bearish even after completing some targets under 1.130, expecting at least ABC move in this red C wave, and A move is still active. Currently I think we are in wave 4, and because of that price action is slow, but impulsive wave 5 could start anytime to downside, breaking 1.130 support. Wave B or wave 2 to the upside could provide last very nice short opportunity.

Of course anything can happen, but as long as 1.150 resistance holds I am short.