FOREX PRO Weekly November 07-11, 2011

[michael freeman]

Hi Sive,
according to neely, if i am not mistaken your monthly graph is a triangle where wave e has recently bounced off the apex. Neely's likely scenario long term in some agreeance also with your long term is a fast thrust [up or dn ] outside the triangle or a smaller triangle within the current triangle. The smaller triangle may be more likely if if the euro issues take longer than most imagine.
Any thoughts on this larger picture.....regards

 

[rashidin5178]

......IF this will be the first case - then, probably it is make sense to try enter Long. At least market will show some significant retracement to the upside.....

Hi Sive,

Just curious what level to the upside that you favor actually?

Thanks and Best Regards.

 

[sardinian]

Italy

Because my location, I can share best info about possible scenarios of italian political condition updated today 10 november 2011.

1) Saturday next Senatus will vote first austerity plan (very light in my opinion).
2) After that approval, Berlusconi will give dimission as PM
3) Berlusconi supports at the moment (when I writing) emergency national government with Mario Monti
4) Sunday or Saturday night President Napolitano will give to Mario Monti power of prime minister

and now the crossroad of possibilities..
A) Next week Mario Monti will found parliamentary support in PD (left), in Terzo Polo (center) and in Pdl (liberal party of Berlusconi) ...Incredible write that but possible 'cause the emergency.
B) Mario Monti needs the vote of the Parlament for every law. Berlusconi says he wants what BCE proposes . But does PD will agree about important policy as the cut the salary of pubblic workers ? I think not: PD is worried to lose votes in favour of other left parties (idv, sel) as Pdl in favour of Terzo Polo and Lega Nord. In general none party wants cuts pubblic spend and reduce his number of electors....
C) After a lot of struggles....without important support of the parlament, Mario Monti will never change nothing...Italy will vote in the next year...


Further info: Il Sole 24 Ore: notizie di finanza, economia, cronaca italiana, esteri, borsa e fisco

 

[Venelin]

I think is worth mentioning how reliable DiNapoli methods are! For example today we had clear RRT on 15 min. chart then continuation DRPO buy and B&B sell from 38.2 retracement! If I am not mistaken or the market should trigger 61.8 B&B sell?! Sive, what is your take on that?

 

[Sive Morten]

Hi Sive,

Just curious what level to the upside that you favor actually?

Thanks and Best Regards.

Well, at least 1.3630, but it has reached already. There are some chances that market could reach 50% resistance at 1.3675, but they are much smaller.

Because my location, I can share best info about possible scenarios of italian political condition updated today 10 november 2011.

1) Saturday next Senatus will vote first austerity plan (very light in my opinion).
2) After that approval, Berlusconi will give dimission as PM
3) Berlusconi supports at the moment (when I writing) emergency national government with Mario Monti
4) Sunday or Saturday night President Napolitano will give to Mario Monti power of prime minister

and now the crossroad of possibilities..
A) Next week Mario Monti will found parliamentary support in PD (left), in Terzo Polo (center) and in Pdl (liberal party of Berlusconi) ...Incredible write that but possible 'cause the emergency.
B) Mario Monti needs the vote of the Parlament for every law. Berlusconi says he wants what BCE proposes . But does PD will agree about important policy as the cut the salary of pubblic workers ? I think not: PD is worried to lose votes in favour of other left parties (idv, sel) as Pdl in favour of Terzo Polo and Lega Nord. In general none party wants cuts pubblic spend and reduce his number of electors....
C) After a lot of struggles....without important support of the parlament, Mario Monti will never change nothing...Italy will vote in the next year...


Further info: Il Sole 24 Ore: notizie di finanza, economia, cronaca italiana, esteri, borsa e fisco

Hi Sardinian,
Thanks for update. This is really important currently. I just remember that there was somebody from Italy on our forum
I suppose in such circumstances Italy will not survive till next year. Probably we should be aware of that turmoil as in Greece - night voting sessions and so on.
Italy bonds has broken 7+%, and with 1.9 Trln EUR of debt that is greater than Greece, Prortugal and Spain together - Italy can't feel calm... This is 8th world largest economy and 3d in EU.

I think is worth mentioning how reliable DiNapoli methods are! For example today we had clear RRT on 15 min. chart then continuation DRPO buy and B&B sell from 38.2 retracement! If I am not mistaken or the market should trigger 61.8 B&B sell?! Sive, what is your take on that?

Well, Although some downward come back is possible due previous momentum, but we can't call it as B&B. Since pure B&B should not start from DRPO. This is either/or but not as/as category. At least from DiNapoli technique standpoint.

 

[rashidin5178]

Because my location, I can share best info about possible scenarios of italian political condition updated today 10 november 2011.

1) Saturday next Senatus will vote first austerity plan (very light in my opinion).
2) After that approval, Berlusconi will give dimission as PM
3) Berlusconi supports at the moment (when I writing) emergency national government with Mario Monti
4) Sunday or Saturday night President Napolitano will give to Mario Monti power of prime minister

and now the crossroad of possibilities..
A) Next week Mario Monti will found parliamentary support in PD (left), in Terzo Polo (center) and in Pdl (liberal party of Berlusconi) ...Incredible write that but possible 'cause the emergency.
B) Mario Monti needs the vote of the Parlament for every law. Berlusconi says he wants what BCE proposes . But does PD will agree about important policy as the cut the salary of pubblic workers ? I think not: PD is worried to lose votes in favour of other left parties (idv, sel) as Pdl in favour of Terzo Polo and Lega Nord. In general none party wants cuts pubblic spend and reduce his number of electors....
C) After a lot of struggles....without important support of the parlament, Mario Monti will never change nothing...Italy will vote in the next year...


Further info: Il Sole 24 Ore: notizie di finanza, economia, cronaca italiana, esteri, borsa e fisco

Hi sardinian,

How bad actually Italian's economy (I mean how hard the solution it is?) and is it any light at the end of the tunnel to save Italy particularly as well as Europe as a whole.

Thanks and Best Regards

 

[Sive Morten]

Hi Sive,
according to neely, if i am not mistaken your monthly graph is a triangle where wave e has recently bounced off the apex. Neely's likely scenario long term in some agreeance also with your long term is a fast thrust [up or dn ] outside the triangle or a smaller triangle within the current triangle. The smaller triangle may be more likely if if the euro issues take longer than most imagine.
Any thoughts on this larger picture.....regards

Hi Michael,
I'm not a big fan of EW, so here is markings that my software does...
We've discussed the long-term perspectives of EUR based on Dollar Index analysis - this look is pure technical. It tells that nearest long-term target at EUR is 1.18.
Take a look at first post in this thread.

 

[sardinian]

Hi sardinian,

How bad actually Italian's economy (I mean how hard the solution it is?) and is it any light at the end of the tunnel to save Italy particularly as well as Europe as a whole.

Thanks and Best Regards

Hi Rashidin
In reply to your question, in my opinion the problem is that the medicine for that big disease ( pubblic italian debt + the lost of competitivness of italian economy ) must be so bitter that italian citizens and politics have no imagination.
Italians would like don't change life style, don't touch current pubblic spend and at the same time living la Dolce Vita with a lot of debt thanks to foreing financial investors.

The market is right judge and the technical forecast analisys for short EUR/USD till 1.18 in OP find "agreement" also with a "short fundamental/sentiment" in the next months.

 

[Pip Me Up]

I'm bored.

The EUR is temporarily doomed anyway, so all this indifferent nonsense in the markets is just annoying. My trading account hasn't had a good ole fashioned trend trading injection of the readies for a while now.

With that in mind, lets all short anything EUR, see if we can petition the banks to switch off the fail safes on the HFT black boxes and to dump large sells in the market and hopefully we'll get a 2000 pts self reinforcing feed back loop and then we can go out and have a massive piss up on the weekend with the dosh we've made.

Anyone else up for that?

 

[rashidin5178]

Hi Rashidin
In reply to your question, in my opinion the problem is that the medicine for that big disease ( pubblic italian debt + the lost of competitivness of italian economy ) must be so bitter that italian citizens and politics have no imagination.
Italians would like don't change life style, don't touch current pubblic spend and at the same time living la Dolce Vita with a lot of debt thanks to foreing financial investors.

The market is right judge and the technical forecast analisys for short EUR/USD till 1.18 in OP find "agreement" also with a "short fundamental/sentiment" in the next months.

Hi sardinian,

Thanks to your reply. Now I got some idea how bad it is. Maybe this decade for Asia to make a showtime, in my humble opinion.

Thanks and Best Regards.