FOREX PRO WEEKLY, November 08-12, 2010

Good morning Sir

Thanks for the analysis as always....

The market (Eur Usd) opened at 1.4056, went up a few pips to 1.4087, then went straight to make a low at 1.3918.

From your analysis, you said if the market starts by opening lower then we have to wait for it to retrace back to the weekly pivot before entering short.

But considering the situation here, market did not reach any of the predicted level on its way up after it openened.

My question here Sir is that...should we still wait for market to go back to around the weekly pivot of 1.4056 or we should enter short from here...1.3965......because market seems to range trade at this point.

Thanks.

after the drop to 1.3919 price again go up to 1.3985 ..Masta sive said earlier to look for a Bearish Engulfing or DPRO failure or something like that... i think EU shows a bearish engulfing before falling on lower timeframe.. no one is 100% accurate .. i think everything is done .. as Masta sive predicted
 
Hi Sive, Can you give us some idea of what to look for to know whether to exit the trade at 1.36 or to hold onto it until 1.33, and what new stop loss to hold in profits would make sense with the pair having fallen this far. I never have too much trouble getting into a trade, but I do have less understanding on when to get out of one. (both good trades and bad ones.) Thank you.
 
Hello Sir. Do you still advise holding long on USDJPY to 82.50 per our butterfly pattern?
 
One thing i am not able to get... USD/JPY going up when Eur/USD going up! when Eur/USD going down USD/JPY following him! but why!
 
EUR/USD Daily Update, Tue 09, Nov 2010

Good morning,
Unfortunately EUR has not given us a chance to enter short with any meaningful retracement. Now it moves below our first support area, that we've talked about in weekly research. Particularly, EUR reaches weekly pivot support 1, so may be it can show some bounce to the upside. (See daily chart)
At the same time, on 4-hour chart we see good thrust down. And it can be a context for 4-hour B&B "Sell" trade. In you're bearish and you're intraday trader - you can trade just B&B. If you're positional trader, you can use 4-hour Fib Confluence Resistance for enter on the short side and hold this position a bit longer, counting on deeper move, may be to 1.3650 area roughly.
 

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Good morning Sir

Thanks for the analysis as always....

The market (Eur Usd) opened at 1.4056, went up a few pips to 1.4087, then went straight to make a low at 1.3918.

From your analysis, you said if the market starts by opening lower then we have to wait for it to retrace back to the weekly pivot before entering short.

But considering the situation here, market did not reach any of the predicted level on its way up after it openened.

My question here Sir is that...should we still wait for market to go back to around the weekly pivot of 1.4056 or we should enter short from here...1.3965......because market seems to range trade at this point.

Thanks.

Hi, Forexclues
In general, it depends on trend. If, for example, daily, 4-hour and hourly trends are bearish, you can use retracement even on 15-min chart to enter short. I prefer to use Confluences/Agreements for entering, just because it safer.

Good stuff Sive
What do u expect for euro to this year's end ?
It will depend on depth of current retracement to the downside. I think, that market still can reach 1.4450 area roughly. But will it happen in current year or not, who knows... especially, if market will reach 1.3350 area.

Hi Sive, Can you give us some idea of what to look for to know whether to exit the trade at 1.36 or to hold onto it until 1.33, and what new stop loss to hold in profits would make sense with the pair having fallen this far. I never have too much trouble getting into a trade, but I do have less understanding on when to get out of one. (both good trades and bad ones.) Thank you.

It's very large question. Speaking particularly on 1.36 level, personally, I think that is better to take chips off the table there. Market will be at daily oversold and Confluence support.
In general, to protect profits and estimate targets you should take into consideration a lot of different moments - power of initial thrust, depth of retracement to choose 0.618 Fib expansion or 100% Expansion, levels of overbought or oversold, trends on higher time frames etc...

Hello Sir. Do you still advise holding long on USDJPY to 82.50 per our butterfly pattern?

No, I had to close it, because I had awful short position in Gold that is was hedged with USD/JPY. It allowed me exit with just 40 bucks loss...
But in general, previous week was good - due to Swiss franc
 
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Pivots

Hi Sive,

I see that you use pivot points quite often in your analysis. Even though, I did not see it in the original DiNapoli methodology, it seems like a really effective addition. At what GMT time does the day end for your calculations of daily pivots? How about the week beginning and end? I guess month is obvious.

Thanks for all the effort. I appreciate your teaching approach very much.

Rasto
 
Hi Sive,

I see that you use pivot points quite often in your analysis. Even though, I did not see it in the original DiNapoli methodology, it seems like a really effective addition. At what GMT time does the day end for your calculations of daily pivots? How about the week beginning and end? I guess month is obvious.

Thanks for all the effort. I appreciate your teaching approach very much.

Rasto

Well, usually I use futures prices with electronic session on Globex. If my mind does not tricks me, they have a break for 20 min after 0:00. The time is based on Chicago Central time - I think it GMT-5...
 
EUR/USD Daily Update, Wed 10, November 2010

Hello everybody,
EUR currently does not show any meaningful signals that are worthy to be traded, and we can expect some retracement to the upside.
Only one noting, concerning the daily time frame - 1.36-1.3650 area is a very strong support - Daily confluence support, monthly pivot support 1, and daily oversold, so be careful of possible Wash&Rinse during lower breakout of trading range on daily time frame. Market can show breakout and then return right back in.
On 4-hour chart, I think that 1.3864-1.3870 and monthly pivot or 1.3939-1.3946 Confluence resistance should hold the market during retracement up.
Move above 1.3970 is not welcomed for bears.
 

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