Forex FOREX PRO WEEKLY, November 12 - 16, 2018
- Thread starter Sive Morten
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Sive Morten
Special Consultant to the FPA
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Morning guys,
EUR was able to climb to 4H K-resistance area yesterdays on a news of Brexit agreement. Although this mostly was a populist statement, because result of this agreement a bit tricky. As Boris Johnson said - this is worst agreement that ever could be, because UK will have to stay in tax/custom EU area and will have to execute it without ability to take part in changing it, because formally, UK will be out of EU. Besides, this agreement has not passed yet through Parliament. It makes us think that reaction probably will be short-term.
On daily chart we still keep our setup of reaching 1.1180-1.1185 area. Market has not shown yet suffficient upside action to cancel this scenario:
On 4H chart market has done all neccesary steps for B&B "Sell" trade. Market has reached our K-resistance area. Since yesterday we've said - put initial stop above K-area - our setup here is still valid, despite a bit higher upside retracement. B&B "Sell" minimal target is 5/8 downside action from recent rally, but potentially it could trigger downside continuation on daily chart.
On 1H chart gradual channel is forming, market has completed AB=CD pattern inside it. It reminds flag shape. B&B suggests that this flag should be broken down. If somehow market will break 4H K-resistance up - bearish setup here will be vanished and we will have to create another trading scenario...
That's being said, today all eyes on B&B trade...
EUR was able to climb to 4H K-resistance area yesterdays on a news of Brexit agreement. Although this mostly was a populist statement, because result of this agreement a bit tricky. As Boris Johnson said - this is worst agreement that ever could be, because UK will have to stay in tax/custom EU area and will have to execute it without ability to take part in changing it, because formally, UK will be out of EU. Besides, this agreement has not passed yet through Parliament. It makes us think that reaction probably will be short-term.
On daily chart we still keep our setup of reaching 1.1180-1.1185 area. Market has not shown yet suffficient upside action to cancel this scenario:
On 4H chart market has done all neccesary steps for B&B "Sell" trade. Market has reached our K-resistance area. Since yesterday we've said - put initial stop above K-area - our setup here is still valid, despite a bit higher upside retracement. B&B "Sell" minimal target is 5/8 downside action from recent rally, but potentially it could trigger downside continuation on daily chart.
On 1H chart gradual channel is forming, market has completed AB=CD pattern inside it. It reminds flag shape. B&B suggests that this flag should be broken down. If somehow market will break 4H K-resistance up - bearish setup here will be vanished and we will have to create another trading scenario...
That's being said, today all eyes on B&B trade...
Deltoid88
Master Sergeant
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- 278
Update on GBP. I correct a bit my wave count, although result is similar, this looks like most probable wave count and provides some very nice scalp trades.
Long against 1.2885, tp rectangle zone.
Long against 1.2827, tp rectangle zone.
Yesterday and todays closes were bullish but 1.134x still hold the bounces. Without any closes above, it will go down. Tomorrow is a SOMA day,Fed to drain $17bn from the economy and the loss of liquidity is more likely to drive up the US Dollar.
However, there is lots of mess around Brexit and Italy that can hit the wire from time to time. That makes it some difficult to trade If the stop loss is to narrow
That is a scenario I’m looking on as well. A scalp buy at 1.121/1.126 and/or sell rejection of the 1.134x. 1.1248 is the lowest daily close 2018. 1.134 last weeks close. 1.1344 last month close. Bullish on day, other TF bearish. yesterdays close at 1.1317 will set the bias for today.
Sive Morten
Special Consultant to the FPA
- Messages
- 18,654
Morning guys,
EUR shows right now a bit more strength, compares to what we've expected on a background of widely announced Brexit agreement. Although, in reality no agreement yet stands beyond this document. Ireland border has not been agreed, UK will stands in EU tax and custody space and will make corresponding payments till the end of 2020. Anyway, EU shows a bit more strength. It doesn't mean that we talk on reversal, but upside retracement could last a bit more.
On daily chart the major pattern that we will watch for today-tomorrow is potential bearish grabber. It could become the first sign of retracement ending:
On 4H chart reaction on B&B has happened, but it was weaker that it should be and has not completed B&B minimal target. K-resistance has been broken. By these reasons, we need more confirmation from the market of retracement ending. Potentially, next level where retracement could be over is 1.1370. This is OP target of 4H AB-CD pattern. Potentially we could get "222" Sell pattern here as well. Reversal around 1.1370 makes possible appearing of daily grabber as well:
On 1H chart as our OP and B&B starting point was respected, but later market has moved higher. It means that we watch for next target now. IT is XOP and butterfly "Sell" destination point. Both are agreed with 4H OP and stand in the same 1.1370 level. Since we have some grabbers around that suggest upside breakout - this target has not bad chances to be reached today. Our task is to watch what will happen around, whether we will get any reversal or not.
EUR shows right now a bit more strength, compares to what we've expected on a background of widely announced Brexit agreement. Although, in reality no agreement yet stands beyond this document. Ireland border has not been agreed, UK will stands in EU tax and custody space and will make corresponding payments till the end of 2020. Anyway, EU shows a bit more strength. It doesn't mean that we talk on reversal, but upside retracement could last a bit more.
On daily chart the major pattern that we will watch for today-tomorrow is potential bearish grabber. It could become the first sign of retracement ending:
On 4H chart reaction on B&B has happened, but it was weaker that it should be and has not completed B&B minimal target. K-resistance has been broken. By these reasons, we need more confirmation from the market of retracement ending. Potentially, next level where retracement could be over is 1.1370. This is OP target of 4H AB-CD pattern. Potentially we could get "222" Sell pattern here as well. Reversal around 1.1370 makes possible appearing of daily grabber as well:
On 1H chart as our OP and B&B starting point was respected, but later market has moved higher. It means that we watch for next target now. IT is XOP and butterfly "Sell" destination point. Both are agreed with 4H OP and stand in the same 1.1370 level. Since we have some grabbers around that suggest upside breakout - this target has not bad chances to be reached today. Our task is to watch what will happen around, whether we will get any reversal or not.
London closed 4 pips lower than Yesterday. Daily(pink) inline with weekly( yellow), monthly(blue). Nothing bullish so far, things can chang. Bulls want to close tomorrow above Yellow line, stronger above blue line. The lower close today indicates the todays low will be tested.
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Sive Morten
Special Consultant to the FPA
- Messages
- 18,654
Good morning,
On EUR we're coming to next area where downside reversal potentially could happen. In fact, we've got daily grabber as on EUR as on DXY. On DXY last two sessions are high wave indecision candles. It means that direction depends on breakout.
From technical point of view situation stands relatively simple - either deal with patterns or wait for action first and then take position on retracement. Despite stronger than expected upward action EUR due political background - bearish momentum has not dissapeared and still here, as well as bearish tendency. Today we need to check market reaction on next support area that just has been hit:
We talk about 4H OP target and 50% resistance level that we've appointed as target yesterday. Upside action stands heavy, with significant volatility. Market shows solid sell-off, but somehow again and again gets power to return on top. This action can't last too long. And definitely this is not the type of action, typical for reversal and bullish trend. This is retracement:
So, we need to see what will happen around OP. There are two ways how to deal with it. Spike to OP is also the top of daily grabber. First way - watch for bearish patterns and take position with them. Now we could recognize "222" Sell" or it could shift to Butterfly later. Anyway stop should be placed initially above XOP here, on hourly chart.
Second - do nothing and wait for starting of downside action. As soon as collapse will start, channel will be broken - enter on some minor pullback. Both ways have its own adv/disadv. but second way is more conservative, because you have less risk as you enter when action already has started. In first way - you anticipate possible action dealing with the patterns that could fail. But you get better entry level.
On EUR we're coming to next area where downside reversal potentially could happen. In fact, we've got daily grabber as on EUR as on DXY. On DXY last two sessions are high wave indecision candles. It means that direction depends on breakout.
From technical point of view situation stands relatively simple - either deal with patterns or wait for action first and then take position on retracement. Despite stronger than expected upward action EUR due political background - bearish momentum has not dissapeared and still here, as well as bearish tendency. Today we need to check market reaction on next support area that just has been hit:
We talk about 4H OP target and 50% resistance level that we've appointed as target yesterday. Upside action stands heavy, with significant volatility. Market shows solid sell-off, but somehow again and again gets power to return on top. This action can't last too long. And definitely this is not the type of action, typical for reversal and bullish trend. This is retracement:
So, we need to see what will happen around OP. There are two ways how to deal with it. Spike to OP is also the top of daily grabber. First way - watch for bearish patterns and take position with them. Now we could recognize "222" Sell" or it could shift to Butterfly later. Anyway stop should be placed initially above XOP here, on hourly chart.
Second - do nothing and wait for starting of downside action. As soon as collapse will start, channel will be broken - enter on some minor pullback. Both ways have its own adv/disadv. but second way is more conservative, because you have less risk as you enter when action already has started. In first way - you anticipate possible action dealing with the patterns that could fail. But you get better entry level.
Deltoid88
Master Sergeant
- Messages
- 278
Update on EUR. Scalp long worked perfectly, EUR possibly has already hit the top and downside action has started. Sell entry zone 1.1340-1.1495, TP zone 1.1155-1.12, SL=1.1501
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