Forex FOREX PRO WEEKLY, November 12 - 16, 2018

[Stag]

Hi guys, we can hardly find anybody talking about the bullish scenario on the Internet, so let me now represent the opposite side, just to give you a contrary view based on the larger pic, what sort of telltale signs I can see, which may result in a surprising turn that the majority may not see or consider at the moment.

To sum it up, the decline from 1.1815 has an overlapping wave structure, consecutive waves of the drop became shorter with a waning momentum all the way down, and prices are trending above the midline of our base channel if we apply the KCT technique properly. We know furthermore that wave 3 must not be shortest by price when compared with waves 1 and 5 of the drop from 1.1815. These can be signs of the fifth wave within an impulsive decline off 1.2556 (but also can be an unfolding wave 1 from 1.1815, who knows).

So, what does it mean in practice and what to look for to avoid a bear trap?

If prices brake 1.1300 decisively and you see prices falling like a stone, it's fine. Forget my comments above, just trail your stop and enjoy the freefall towards 1.118. However, if prices just make a poke below 1.1300 or get muted at nearby levels, it can be the sign of a reversal and the decline from 1.1815 sets the stage for a rally attempt that should start preferably from not much below 1.1300 (though it is allowed to go lower under this scenario). If it is a correction of the impulsive decline from 1.2556, it should be the largest since the Euro peaked at 1.2556.

Again, that does not mean that will be the case. Just have a plan and be ready for the unexpected.

Greetings guys, let me show you two similar interpretation of the pattern we see unfolding off the low at 1.1215. Both can be considered as a corrective rally as long as prices stay below 1.1500.

In the first case we can say the top is already in. Once prices break through the key level at 1.1321, the drop should accelerate towards the next structural key level at 1.1253 and beyond. Simple like that.

The second is a tricky one. This scenario may lead to an explosive price action if prices find support at 1.1320 - 1.1300.

Good luck.

 

[Robban68]

Update on EUR. Scalp long worked perfectly, EUR possibly has already hit the top and downside action has started. Sell entry zone 1.1340-1.1495, TP zone 1.1155-1.12, SL=1.1501

View attachment 40427

A close today (17:30 CET) below 1.134 will help, better with 1.1313, stronger below 1.1248. A close above 1.134 will make me cautios with short.

 

[Deltoid88]

Update on EUR. This wave count proved to be wrong, tricky wave 4 proved to be expanded flat. I expect wave 5 to end very soon despite strong bullish acceleration. Sell entry 1.139-1.1430, TP - 1.1155-1.12, SL=1.1501.

Despite strong bullish acceleration I expect EUR to collapse. I am using this move just to increase my short positions, betting against 1.1501. Looking at this bounce like improvement of risk/reward ratio.

 

[Deltoid88]

Update on GBP. Here I believe we are in wave 4 which is about to end very soon, and bearish wave 5 to downside to start. Sell entry zone 1.2850-1.2980, TP=1.2720, SL zone 1.2930-1.3030. My expectation is immediate drop and acceleration to downside. Would be surprise if GBP go above 1.29, but if it does, I will just increase short positions.

 

[gwynfor]

Hi Stag

I am struggling with your second wave count. How does the blue numbering i - v fit in as a purple fifth wave ? In fact I can't see blue i to v as being motive at all?

In the midst of a rapidly changing scenario perhaps now is not the time to ask for your help but if you get a chance to reply sometime in the next few days I would be grateful.

 

[Stag]

Hi Stag

I am struggling with your second wave count. How does the blue numbering i - v fit in as a purple fifth wave ? In fact I can't see blue i to v as being motive at all?

In the midst of a rapidly changing scenario perhaps now is not the time to ask for your help but if you get a chance to reply sometime in the next few days I would be grateful.

It was an ending diagonal as a fifth wave. Yeah, it needs adjustments as time passes, but here is my current operative count along with KCT channels and key levels - valid as long as price action supports.

 

[gwynfor]

Thank you Stag.

 

[Rabul]

How do you interpret what one of the leading world analysts said 2 days ago:

<{FX}> FX DXY / EURO / USD/'DM' (MT BULLs ag 93 / 91 w/ 88.25 RISK for 105-110, We're 'Wary & Cautious' At 97 DXY)

I understand that he sees DXY reversing toward 93 or lower with risk remaining around 97 toward 105-110.
Other interpretation I see is DXY going possibly to the same 93, 91 with risk to 88.25 and then reversing toward 105-110.

 

[Sive Morten]

How do you interpret what one of the leading world analysts said 2 days ago:

I understand that he sees DXY reversing toward 93 or lower with risk remaining around 97 toward 105-110.
Other interpretation I see is DXY going possibly to the same 93, 91 with risk to 88.25 and then reversing toward 105-110.

Yes, I think he means enter somewhere around 91-93, stop below 88.25, 97 is control area that should be broken, main target 105-110.