FOREX PRO Weekly November 14-18, 2011

Icarus

Private, 1st Class
Messages
81
Is this a bear flag in formation on the EURUSD? A continuation pattern signaling a further decline?
 

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
13,536
Sive,

I read your analysis and appreciate that it happnes most of days.

But of late you will agree with me that technicals do not drive the market but the price moves based on just roumour mills and news.

Technically the price tried to test 1.3550 levels first today as you indicated but it failed at 1.3540 and dropped to 1.3450 level by the time I am writing.

In my opinion it is ragnge bound and neither sellers nor buyers have upper hand due to roumour mills. What I can see is that the price tried to correct more than 1.3550 four times and each time it failed. But untill now 1.3430/20 is still holding before breaking. May be today in asia ? I will write further after it happened.
Is this a bear flag in formation on the EURUSD? A continuation pattern signaling a further decline?
Yes, guys, probably you're right. Now it becomes to look like triangle/pennant on 4-hour chart.
 

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
13,536
EUR/USD Daily Update, Fri 18, November 2011

Good morning,
On daily time frame market stands indecision and forms some inside trading sessions as doji. So, some breakout is not so far from us, I suppose. Trend is still bearish. Next support level is 1.3377

On 4 hour chart market has tried by failed to accomplish stop grabber pattern. Also, it has failed with Double bottom and turned to some kind of triangle/pennant consolidation. Also we see here bearish dynamic pressure, since price action does not support bullish trend on 4hour chart. That factors tells that probably bears have more power than bulls. Still, market has a tendency to fake outs, especially when pattern is clearly seeing.

So, here are two scenarios that are very common to triangles - two opposite batterflies on hourly chart. Although market signs tell that bearish scenario is more probable, still due to tendency to fake outs - we can't exclude Butterfly "Sell" either.

Probably during today's trading session we will see some clues and solutions to this riddle on lower time frames. Anyway pull the trigger only when you will get sufficient confidence to do that.
 

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rashidin5178

Sergeant
Messages
244
Hi Sive,

I just want to have your opinion on this trendline that I draw on daily timeframe. For me, we are at critical point now. If market will be able to break this trendline, then we could see further downmove. But will market respect it based on current scenario?

Thanks and Best Regards.
 

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Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
13,536
Hi Sive,

I just want to have your opinion on this trendline that I draw on daily timeframe. For me, we are at critical point now. If market will be able to break this trendline, then we could see further downmove. But will market respect it based on current scenario?

Thanks and Best Regards.
Hi Rashidin,
well, since this is just 2-dot line, it's difficult to say that we're at critical point.
For that purpose we need at least 3-dot, as I suppose.
 

rashidin5178

Sergeant
Messages
244
Hi Rashidin,
well, since this is just 2-dot line, it's difficult to say that we're at critical point.
For that purpose we need at least 3-dot, as I suppose.
Roger, Sir. Glad to read your reply. You are good teacher to me. :)

Thanks a lot, Sir.

Thanks and Best Regards.
 

rashidin5178

Sergeant
Messages
244
Hi Sive,

Looks like we have almost perfect butterfly sell pattern on H4 although up thrust is so strong. :eek:oh:

Also 1.618 from previous high (1.3536).

I just short with cautious. Purely depend on harmonic pattern. Lets see.

Thanks and Best Regards.
 
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Damian1987

Corporal
Messages
149
Hey Sive i'm curious about one thing. How come you have 7 bars per day on 4-hour chart? For M6E (Euro FX micro) I have 6 bars per day and the last one is only 3 hours long since market is closed from 17 to 18 NY Time. That changes a little bit the panorama, but sometimes a lot, for example on this week DRPO LAL, I've gotten the first confirmed penetration of the 3x3 4 hours later than you did. :err: Have a good weekend master!
 

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
13,536
Hey Sive i'm curious about one thing. How come you have 7 bars per day on 4-hour chart? For M6E (Euro FX micro) I have 6 bars per day and the last one is only 3 hours long since market is closed from 17 to 18 NY Time. That changes a little bit the panorama, but sometimes a lot, for example on this week DRPO LAL, I've gotten the first confirmed penetration of the 3x3 4 hours later than you did. :err: Have a good weekend master!

Hm, curious... Actually I use standard contracts and globex trading session charts. May be you use something different?

Hoping for 1.3650 Area again for sell ... :nerd: great analysis for this week.. sive sir.. thanks for Guide us
Yes, 1.3630 is probable, since this is Agreement. But, very probable that market will show just shallow retracement and continue move down.
 
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