FOREX Pro Weekly, November 15-19, 2010

[Sive Morten]

USD/CHF Daily Update, Tue 16, November 2010

Good morning,
In previous weekly thread I've noted that there is a DRPO Buy on weekly time frame is forming. Yesterday somebody asked about what to do with it?
So, I offer to shift to swiss franc currently.
1. On the monthly time frame there is a nice butterfly is forming. Also you can see that CD leg of ABC is faster than AB. It means that even DRPO will work it will be just a retracement to the upside.
Another significant moment is that market has not quite reach 100% expansion target on spot market. But it does no futures market. This add some confusion in current situation
2. On the weekly time frame you can see the perfect example of DRPO Buy. I think that if it will work well, we can reach as far as 1.03 area - 3/8 resistance from the whole move down.
3. On the daily and 4-hour chart is not all so simple. Currently market stands just under the strong resistance - 0.786 Fib resistance, weekly pivot resistance 1 and 0.618 daily Fib expansion target. It can turn to the Butterfly on daily time frame with target around 0.9330.
We can talk about DRPO only if Butterfly will fail and market will take the previous highs on daily time frame. Before that - everything can happen.

 

[rasto007]

Sive,

another signal adding to the uncertainty on USD/CHF is the MACDp failure on weekly.

Rasto

 

[adams1]

eurusd looks like there is a butterfly buy pattern on the 1hr chat

Hi sive,
In the 1hr chat of eurusd I am seeing a pattern that looks like butterfly buy.
Sir, I want to know your opinion about this.

Thanks
Adamson Erha

 

[Sive Morten]

This is not a butterfly due too shallow retracements of the wings.

 

[Sive Morten]

EUR/USD Daily Update, Wed 17, November 10

Good morning,

In the beginning, just a couple of words about CHF. Yesterday market has shown nice thrust up and canceled possible daily Butterfly pattern. Now possibly I agree that weekly DRPO has started to work. But do not haste to establish long daily positions on CHF, because market is overbought on daily time frame. Wait for pullback to support, drop your time frame and watch for Agreements with support levels.

Now, let's shift to EUR. Market has reached weekly pivot support 1.3480 and 100% expansion target at 1.3512. Should it reverse to the upside? I do not think so. There is no Fib support currently beneath the market, it does not oversold. So, even we will see some pullback, it will be just a response on pivot support. Personally, I'll be watching for some buy signals around 1.33-1.3360 area that is daily Fib support, oversold and the target of Butterfly Buy pattern.

 

[adams1]

Please sir,where is the best point to enter long on usdchf?

Good day sir,
sir please just specify the best point to wait for long bcus the support you said I dont have it on my chart.Please just specify safe price point to enter long.
I am waiting to expecting your reply.

Warmest regard
Adamson Erha

 

[Sive Morten]

Good day sir,
sir please just specify the best point to wait for long bcus the support you said I dont have it on my chart.Please just specify safe price point to enter long.
I am waiting to expecting your reply.

Warmest regard
Adamson Erha

It's imposible to specify it right now, because before entering, you should watch how market responses to this level, and does it show any buy signals there. You can see levels ahead of time, but not the signals...

 

[Kaka Khan]

What is the out-look ?

Hi Sive,

What are your comments about Euro's Picture ? It has been ranging today without any clarity. Do you think it is making a settlement at this level to reverse direction ?

There was a hanging man candle signaling reversal. Do you think it'll reverse or move further down ?

Kaka

 

[Icarus]

Hello Sive. Am I correct in seeing a Double Repo LAL signal on the 4-hour chart of the EURUSD? I had a short position from 1.3543 but closed it as I am uncertain what will show a failure of this pattern. Would it be a 4-hour close below the 3x3? Or a close below the 61.8 level from the recent low at 1.346 to the recent high at 1.3565? I know you have reviewed this in the past but I was unable to find the discussion in the archives. Could you possibly review the details of a failure of this pattern for us once again in a video? And also what is the possible target of any double repo failure? Thank you for your training on the forex.

 

[Sive Morten]

Hello Sive. Am I correct in seeing a Double Repo LAL signal on the 4-hour chart of the EURUSD? I had a short position from 1.3543 but closed it as I am uncertain what will show a failure of this pattern. Would it be a 4-hour close below the 3x3? Or a close below the 61.8 level from the recent low at 1.346 to the recent high at 1.3565? I know you have reviewed this in the past but I was unable to find the discussion in the archives. Could you possibly review the details of a failure of this pattern for us once again in a video? And also what is the possible target of any double repo failure? Thank you for your training on the forex.

Hi, Icarus,
No, I do not see any DRPO on 4-h EUR. I think that 4-hour GBP price action has more chances to be treated as DRPO LAL. Besides, It forms right at AB-CD pattern. So, possibly it has some chances to work...

In general the target of DRPO failure is one of two possible things:
1. Crossing 3x3 in opposite direction
2. Reaching one of the Fib expansions. You can use as daily as intraday ABC's for this purpose.