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FOREX PRO Weekly November 19-23, 2012

Discussion in 'Sive Morten- Currencies and Gold Video Analysis' started by Sive Morten, Nov 17, 2012.

  1. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    Monthly
    Monthly chart has not changed much, thus, all issues that we’ve specified previously are still valid. Now it is clear that market has stuck in monthly Confluence resistance area 1.2934-1.3149. In current moment, looking at pullback outside of it, we can suggest that the first challenge was unsuccessful, but will follow the next one? We can’t exclude this absolutely. For instance, some sort of double bottom could be formed, or something like that, we don’t know. I prefer to talk about it stick to the subject, that we do not have yet.
    What is more important for us is that definitely some downward move should come. Since this is monthly time frame, this move could be really significant. Even if we mostly trade on daily and intraday charts, we could get definite direction for long-term perspective. That’s why higher time frames are important.
    Now, pay attention to MACD Predictor. November bar stands very close to it, and by November open price trend has turned bullish. The trend breakeven point for current month is 1.2762, and take a look – price now stands below it. If monthly bar will close below this level we will get bearish stop grabber on monthly chart with minimum target – clearing of 1.2042 low. Since 1.2042 stands below 0.618 target of drawn AB=CD pattern, it’s a high probability that market will proceed to 1.17 area initially – target of AB=CD. 1.17 in turn, stands slightly lower previous long-term 2010 lows. Just imagine what will happen, if market will trigger stops below it. We easily could get achievement of our long term 1.15-1.16 target.
    But let’s pass from one to another gradually. Our first task on monthly is to wait for November close. Let’s get stop grabber first and only after that will discuss other things.

    [​IMG]

    Weekly
    Well, guys, weekly chart still holds us with indecision. Although trend has turned bearish, price action was tight and some sort of spin has formed right inside of the range between 25x5 DMA and lower border of previous trading range. Although market has challenged it during the week – price has failed there and returned right back. What comments can I add with just small inside candle on weekly chart? Only the same one – until market will hold inside of this range – 1.2640-1.2750, we will not be able take any position based on weekly chart and could trade exclusively on lower time frames.
    There is no need to repeat that if market will return back into the coil – it could be “222” buy and retest of 25x5 after breakout. This is extremely bullish scenario, that could lead to significant move up. Conversely, downward move could lead to downward continuation inside on 1.5 year channel on weekly chart and lead price to 1.17 area.
    [​IMG]
    Daily
    So it’s look like we can do nothing but focus on daily and lower time frames, and that is really makes sense, since we have something interesting here. First of all, market has done attempt to hold retracement harmony – recall these two blue cloned lines. They have the same slope and length. It means that market has found resistance precisely at the same distance as previously. Second – we’ve got bearish stop grabber, the pattern that we could stick with in the beginning of the coming week. The failure point of this pattern is its high price. Target is a previous swing low – around 1.2640. That is, in turn the level of weekly 25x5. Also take a look – market has returned right back again below 1.2750 area.
    So, trend holds bearish, we have bearish pattern, probably we should search possibility to enter short.
    [​IMG]
    4-hour
    Here is potential risk for daily stop grabber pattern – upward AB=CD that we’ve discussed previously. Although currently not much points on it’s advantage, since both trends has turned bearish, we need to analyze this possibility as well. So, how we can combine both of them? I see only single possibility of this. That will happen if this will be only 0.618 AB=CD, since this level stands below the lows of stop grabber. That sort of development also could lead to Butterfly “Buy” here with target around 1.2635. Still, perfectly if there will not be any upward AB=CD of cause. This scenario we will discuss lower.
    Also take a look at pivots. Market should open right at WPP=1.2735, WPS1 stands very close to weekly 25x5 and gives additional support. So, in short term perspective it’s better to use 1.2640 as short-term target, while we will not get any other patterns that will allow us to estimate it with more precision.
    [​IMG]


    1-hour
    Trend is bullish here. Hourly picture gives us potential levels to watch for short entry. Red circle is a high of daily stop grabber and our working thrust. So, if there still will be AB-CD up, then we should keep an eye on 1.2775 that is Agreement of 0.618 AB=CD target and deep 0.786 resistance level. That development has a lot of chances to shift into Butterfly pattern on 4-hour chart.
    IF this will not be any AB-CD’s up, then two closer levels are possible. Both of them 0.618 but from different swings.
    [​IMG]


    Conclusion:
    Coming week again will be for short-term trading. In the beginning of the week our primary object is daily Stop grabber pattern that could be realized as Butterfly “buy” on 4-hour chart. Potential levels to watch for short entry are 1.2750-1.2760 or Agreement at 1.2775. Failure point of stop grabber is high at 1.2784, but butterfly failure point stands a bit higher – 1.2802.

    The technical portion of Sive's analysis owes a great deal to Joe DiNapoli's methods, and uses a number of Joe's proprietary indicators. Please note that Sive's analysis is his own view of the market and is not endorsed by Joe DiNapoli or any related companies.
     
  2. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    EUR/USD Daily Update, Tue 20, November 2012

    Good morning,
    it has turned so, that market has erased as possibility for stop grabber as for butterfly sell pattern on 4-hour chart.
    But by looking at daily picture I think it's too early to speak about trend change. Still, price action is very gradual and looks more like retracement. That's why, I still will watch for next destination - daily K-resistance around 1.2840 first. Recall, that we now in a stage of a bounce after hitting of 1.27 extension large AB-CD pattern. So, retracement even to 0.618 resistance will be normal, if price action remains so gradual as it now.
    Trend has turned bullish on daily time frame.

    On 4-hour chart we see the same AB=CD pattern. Trend is bullish. Since price has not stopped at 0.618 extension, hence, it probably will proceed to 1.0 point. This point creates an Agreement with K-resistance.
    Hourly chart shows, that there is a possibility of appearing Butterfly "Sell" right on top of AB=CD. We will be lucky if we'll get it.

    So, I expect that probably market will bounce from 1.2840-1.2855 area at least at first touch. That could give us possiblity to make scalp short trade, especially, if we will get some reversal pattern on hourly. This will significantly could improve risk/reward ratio. May be this will be even not just a bounce down, but reversal on daily to 1.618 extension of large AB-CD, who knows.
    That is what I particularly will be watching for in nearest hours. But this postiion, once you'll take it has to be managed. Move stop to b/e as soon as it will be possible during first bounce down from it.
     

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    #2 Sive Morten, Nov 17, 2012
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  3. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    EUR/USD Daily Update, Wed 21, Nov 2012

    Good morning,

    By current price action it seems that bears are taking domination over market, at least points in their favor are greater. Take a look:
    - On daily time frame perfect evening star is forming right below K-resistance area;
    - WPR1 has held retracement up - that's very typical for bear trends;
    - overall bounce on daily is choppy and looks like retracement, not as impulse move;
    - 4-hour chart is showing fast acceleration down with huge candle.
    So, potentially we have different targets to the downside - from WPS1 to Agreement with major 5/8 support at 1.2475 area.
    Personally I more gravitate to entering short, rather than looking for buying opportunity.

    On 4-hour chart trend turns bearish. Since AB=CD pattern is perfectly harmonized, it's hardly will happen, that market will proceed to 1.27 or 1.618 extension. Usually we can expect that, only when CD leg is faster. Another important moment - fast plunge.

    Hence, I rather be searching for short entrly, and probably first of all be looking on 1.2760-1.2765 area - nearest Fib resistance on hourly chart. One thing that I do not want to see - is erasing of plunge candle on 4-hour chart. If market will take its high, then probably my plan will fail.
    I do not know what else could be done in current circumstances.
     

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    #3 Sive Morten, Nov 17, 2012
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  4. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    EUR/USD Daily Update, Thu 22, Nov 2012

    Good morning,
    Happy thanksgiving everybody!

    Well, our yesterday plan for a trade has failed miserably - market has returned right back and erased solid black candle on 4-hour chart. But, that's the market, we have to deal with probabilities but anything could happen. Still this is more an exclusion rather than some rule.
    What we can do today? Should we think that bulls have taken control? To my mind it's a bit early, mostly due nature of upward move. It still choppy and shows no sign of acceleration and thrust. Besides, now we stand inside of K-resistance, and I do not want to buy right here.

    Looking at 4-hour chart, we see that market has hit 1.27 target of our initial AB-CD and, take a look - target of most recent AB=CD. Could market proceed higher? Why not. But we at K-resistance and multiple Agreement.
    Another important moment - that could be 3-Drive "Sell". Although I prefer to see it in shape of wedge and accompanied by divergence, but here swings support neccesary ratios of Drives, so, it looks nice.
    Market now moves inside some upward channel, on daily chart it looks like bearish flag. So we have to be careful to not get in the same trap as yesterday. So, to start think about bullish positions, I prefer to see fast acceleration up - out from channel.
    Take bearish position is a bit simpler, since we have nice patterns and K-resistance on bear side.

    Hourly chart shows us potential for B&B Buy or DRPO "Sell". If this is indeed 3-Drive, then it should be DRPO, that can trigger it.
    That is what we could monitor today. But market probably will be thin, so any surprises are possible.
    P
     

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    #4 Sive Morten, Nov 17, 2012
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  5. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    EUR/USD Update, Fri 23, Nov 2012

    Good morning,

    market was thin yesterday, still that has not prevented some appreciation of EUR right to upper border of K-resistance on daily. Actually, there is nothing to comment on daily chart.

    On 4-hour chart, we've got just first sign of bullish power - market has accelerated above channel. But at the same moment this acceleration has lasted not too long and price is stuck with solid resistance - multiple extension targets, K-resistance and potential 3-Drive sell. Another important moment here - market is contracting currently, price action stands inside of the range of single candle that engulfs all next 4 candles. That usually leads to acceleration on one or other direction, and it is not neccesary that this acceleration will be up. We can't even say now that market has exceeded resistance - it just has reached it and turned to coil.

    On hourly chart there is nothing particular interesting, just some hint on potential bullish dynamic pressure. Keep an eye on it if you intend to enter short, since this could lead price at least to previous high.

    I will be honest with you guys - today I do not want to take any position. First is because I still have short one from yesterday of small volume, second, because today is Friday and market shows not exciting price action.
     

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    #5 Sive Morten, Nov 17, 2012
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  6. jjrichman

    jjrichman Recruit

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    Thanks man, your analysis, as well as, your lessons at FX School are very important to my trading education.
    God bless you.
     
  7. papao

    papao Private, 1st Class

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    possible idea

    Hi sive and thank you for your weekly update. I'm writing for share with you and all users a picture (taken from rischiocalcolato.it, an italian website):

    CAMBIO-EURO-DOLLARO.

    This montlhy chart shows a pattern (republican presidents had a bearish impact on USD, while democrats had a bullish effect on USD). Do you think this could make any sense? Are we facing 4 years of USD appreciation (and EUR depreciation)?

    Thank you :)
     
  8. Yangwoo Park

    Yangwoo Park Private

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    Thank you very much for your great analysis! I am a big fan of you and FPA, and your analysis is a guiding light to my everyday trading. :)
     
  9. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    Hi Papao,
    unfortunately I can't give any reasonable comment on this. But, personally I have some doubts about it... Hardly EUR/USD moves only by impact of political party.
     
  10. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    Good morning,
    Look, guys, here is possibility for hourly DRPO "Sell" right around our Agreement at 1.2775-1.2780. So, let's keep an eye on it...
     

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