Sive Morten
Special Consultant to the FPA
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- 18,654
Thanks. Your support, guys, gives me inspiration...
FOREX PRO WEEKLY, November 20 - 24, 2017
- Thread starter Sive Morten
- Start date
RogerTC
Special Consultant to the FPA
- Messages
- 352
Hi Sive,
I use MT4 . Please see below charts. Macdp and OscillatorP in MT4 is plotting same with offical version of Ninja Platform indicators. Neglitable difference is because of forex data such as 113.92 and 113.93
Sive Morten
Special Consultant to the FPA
- Messages
- 18,654
Good morning,
(Reuters) - The dollar touched a two-month low against the yen on Thursday, having tumbled after the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting showed some policymakers were concerned about persistently low inflation in a blow to rate hawks.
The dollar eased to as low as 111.07 yen in holiday-thinned Asian trade, its weakest level since Sept. 18, and last fetched 111.22 yen, little changed from late U.S. trade on Wednesday.
Trading conditions are likely to be thinner than usual on Thursday, with Japanese financial markets shut for a public holiday and U.S. markets closed for the Thanksgiving holiday.
The greenback nursed its losses after sliding nearly 1.1 percent against the yen on Wednesday, its biggest one-day drop since mid-May.
The minutes of the Fed’s Oct.31-Nov.1 policy meeting showed that Fed policymakers expect that interest rates will have to be raised in the “near term”, reinforcing market expectations for the Fed to raise interest rates in December.
The minutes, however, also highlighted concern among some of the members over the inflation outlook, with the emphasis placed on economic data in determining the timing of future rate rises.
“I think it’s pretty conclusive now, that as we move into 2018, the Fed is going to be focusing on (low) inflation rather than growth so this is still the overriding concern,” said Stephen Innes, head of trading in Asia Pacific for Oanda in Singapore.
Against a basket of six major currencies, the dollar stood at 93.268, languishing near a one-month low of 93.212 that had been set on Wednesday.
A Fed rate hike in December seems like a “done deal”, said Hirofumi Suzuki, an economist for Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation in Singapore.
The focus will be on Fed policymakers’ views on the possible pace of rate hikes in 2018, especially after Jerome Powell takes over as Fed chair from Janet Yellen, Suzuki said.
Powell must be confirmed by the Senate before assuming his new post.
Given the debate within the Fed about low inflation, there are doubts as to just how much the U.S. central bank will be able to raise interest rates, Suzuki added.
The euro held steady at $1.1819 , after gaining 0.7 percent on Wednesday, which brought it back closer to a one-month high of $1.1862 set last week.
Besides the Fed minutes, data showing that new orders for key U.S.-made capital goods unexpectedly fell in October, had also weighed on the dollar on Wednesday.
Today, guys, will be thin market due holidays in Japan and US. Tomorrow also, hardly we will get full liquidity. In such cirmustances markets usually turn to relief and gradual retracement after previous activity.
So, the most important thing that we could do today is to manage our positions. Our last suggestion seems to be correct and EUR has jumped up yesterday. If you can't relax on profit that you have, feel some doubts and have some other kind of pshychological discomfort - don't think, just grab 50% of result and move stop to b/e on the rest. This is most common approach in this situation.
On daily chart market shows thursting action, fast reversal up with tail closes. Here we continue to keep in mind potential DRPO "Sell" on weekly. This pattern assumes even higher action:
If, indeed, EUR will complete our reverse H&S pattern, it should climb somewhere to 1.20 AB=CD target and this is acceptable level for weekly DRPO:
On hourly chart our flag was broken up and right now EUR has completed minor AB-CD 1.618 extension. Thus, due thin market and target reaching - some retracement could happen here...
(Reuters) - The dollar touched a two-month low against the yen on Thursday, having tumbled after the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting showed some policymakers were concerned about persistently low inflation in a blow to rate hawks.
The dollar eased to as low as 111.07 yen in holiday-thinned Asian trade, its weakest level since Sept. 18, and last fetched 111.22 yen, little changed from late U.S. trade on Wednesday.
Trading conditions are likely to be thinner than usual on Thursday, with Japanese financial markets shut for a public holiday and U.S. markets closed for the Thanksgiving holiday.
The greenback nursed its losses after sliding nearly 1.1 percent against the yen on Wednesday, its biggest one-day drop since mid-May.
The minutes of the Fed’s Oct.31-Nov.1 policy meeting showed that Fed policymakers expect that interest rates will have to be raised in the “near term”, reinforcing market expectations for the Fed to raise interest rates in December.
The minutes, however, also highlighted concern among some of the members over the inflation outlook, with the emphasis placed on economic data in determining the timing of future rate rises.
“I think it’s pretty conclusive now, that as we move into 2018, the Fed is going to be focusing on (low) inflation rather than growth so this is still the overriding concern,” said Stephen Innes, head of trading in Asia Pacific for Oanda in Singapore.
Against a basket of six major currencies, the dollar stood at 93.268, languishing near a one-month low of 93.212 that had been set on Wednesday.
A Fed rate hike in December seems like a “done deal”, said Hirofumi Suzuki, an economist for Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation in Singapore.
The focus will be on Fed policymakers’ views on the possible pace of rate hikes in 2018, especially after Jerome Powell takes over as Fed chair from Janet Yellen, Suzuki said.
Powell must be confirmed by the Senate before assuming his new post.
Given the debate within the Fed about low inflation, there are doubts as to just how much the U.S. central bank will be able to raise interest rates, Suzuki added.
The euro held steady at $1.1819 , after gaining 0.7 percent on Wednesday, which brought it back closer to a one-month high of $1.1862 set last week.
Besides the Fed minutes, data showing that new orders for key U.S.-made capital goods unexpectedly fell in October, had also weighed on the dollar on Wednesday.
Today, guys, will be thin market due holidays in Japan and US. Tomorrow also, hardly we will get full liquidity. In such cirmustances markets usually turn to relief and gradual retracement after previous activity.
So, the most important thing that we could do today is to manage our positions. Our last suggestion seems to be correct and EUR has jumped up yesterday. If you can't relax on profit that you have, feel some doubts and have some other kind of pshychological discomfort - don't think, just grab 50% of result and move stop to b/e on the rest. This is most common approach in this situation.
On daily chart market shows thursting action, fast reversal up with tail closes. Here we continue to keep in mind potential DRPO "Sell" on weekly. This pattern assumes even higher action:
If, indeed, EUR will complete our reverse H&S pattern, it should climb somewhere to 1.20 AB=CD target and this is acceptable level for weekly DRPO:
On hourly chart our flag was broken up and right now EUR has completed minor AB-CD 1.618 extension. Thus, due thin market and target reaching - some retracement could happen here...
Sive Morten
Special Consultant to the FPA
- Messages
- 18,654
Good morning,
(Reuters) - The dollar wobbled in thin trading on Friday, on track for losses against most rivals in a holiday-shortened week as it remained under pressure on the Federal Reserve’s cautious view on low U.S. inflation.
U.S. markets were closed for the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday, which was also a national holiday in Japan.
The dollar skidded on Wednesday after minutes from the Fed’s latest policy meeting showed some policymakers fretting over stubbornly weak inflation. That led some to question expectations of hikes in 2018.
The core personal consumption expenditures price index has consistently fallen short of the central bank’s 2 percent target for over five years, even as the Fed has moved toward normalizing policy.
The index that tracks the dollar against a basket of six major rival currencies was down 0.1 percent at 93.153 , and 0.5 percent lower for the week.
The dollar added 0.2 percent against the yen to 111.46, pulling away from Thursday's two-month low of 111.07 yen, though it was still down 0.5 percent for the week.
“Hedge funds that close their books this month have been taking profits on their dollar-long positions,” said Mitsuo Imaizumi, Tokyo-based chief foreign-exchange strategist for Daiwa Securities.
“This has kept the dollar under pressure, and combined with thin liquidity from the holiday, it would be hard for it to climb this session,” he said.
The low-yielding yen, which tends to gain as a perceived safe haven in times of market risk aversion, was underpinned by concerns about a precipitous tumble in Chinese stocks.
“There was a big fall in China yesterday, so everyone is focusing on it in Asia today, with so few trading factors as many market participants in Japan and the U.S. are taking days off following the holiday,” said Ayako Sera, senior market economist at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust.
The CSI300 index shed 3.0 percent on Thursday, its biggest decline in almost a year and a half, on concerns about a selloff in Chinese bonds as investors reacted to the latest government curbs to reduce financial risks. It was down 0.9 percent on Friday.
“The progress of U.S. tax reform remains a key issue for markets, though that’s on hold until next week,” Sera added.
U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday promised “big, beautiful fat tax cuts” in his Thanksgiving message, though a majority of economists in a recent Reuters poll predicted U.S. Republicans are not expected to push the tax cuts through Congress this year.
Economists are also skeptical that the legislation would provide a significant boost to the economy.
The euro was steady at $1.1852, not far from last week's one-month high of $1.1862. For the week, it was up 0.5 percent.
The single currency got a boost from European business surveys, which pointed to a strengthening growth outlook for the region. Figures tracking both the services and manufacturing industries in Europe were better than expected.
Sterling edged down 0.1 percent to $1.3290, though it was 0.6 percent higher for the week and remained close to Thursday’s six-week high of $1.3337 ahead of a visit by British Prime Minister Theresa May to Brussels later on Friday for Brexit talks.
So, yesterday market didn't show any strong activity. Today, I think, we could take a look at NZD again. At least we still have our setup and now another attempt for short entry appears. First attempt was not successful, despite overall setup was not bad - we had "222" sell around hourly k-resistance area and WPP.
Now we have another chance. Recall, that we mostly expect here completion of large AB-CD pattern around 0.6745 and NZD should form last leg down to complete it:
Nowmarket finally has reached level that we've discussed in weekly research - this is 5/8 Fib resistance around WPR1. Also NZD doubles harmonic swing:
On hourly chart we have butterfly "sell" right at top:
Now there is no rush on decision making. You could wait a bit to get larger reversal pattern on hourly chart, also to get assurance that there will be no bullish grabber on 4-hour chart. And then, probably on next week, make final decision, if you're really watching for chances to trade kiwi...
(Reuters) - The dollar wobbled in thin trading on Friday, on track for losses against most rivals in a holiday-shortened week as it remained under pressure on the Federal Reserve’s cautious view on low U.S. inflation.
U.S. markets were closed for the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday, which was also a national holiday in Japan.
The dollar skidded on Wednesday after minutes from the Fed’s latest policy meeting showed some policymakers fretting over stubbornly weak inflation. That led some to question expectations of hikes in 2018.
The core personal consumption expenditures price index has consistently fallen short of the central bank’s 2 percent target for over five years, even as the Fed has moved toward normalizing policy.
The index that tracks the dollar against a basket of six major rival currencies was down 0.1 percent at 93.153 , and 0.5 percent lower for the week.
The dollar added 0.2 percent against the yen to 111.46, pulling away from Thursday's two-month low of 111.07 yen, though it was still down 0.5 percent for the week.
“Hedge funds that close their books this month have been taking profits on their dollar-long positions,” said Mitsuo Imaizumi, Tokyo-based chief foreign-exchange strategist for Daiwa Securities.
“This has kept the dollar under pressure, and combined with thin liquidity from the holiday, it would be hard for it to climb this session,” he said.
The low-yielding yen, which tends to gain as a perceived safe haven in times of market risk aversion, was underpinned by concerns about a precipitous tumble in Chinese stocks.
“There was a big fall in China yesterday, so everyone is focusing on it in Asia today, with so few trading factors as many market participants in Japan and the U.S. are taking days off following the holiday,” said Ayako Sera, senior market economist at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust.
The CSI300 index shed 3.0 percent on Thursday, its biggest decline in almost a year and a half, on concerns about a selloff in Chinese bonds as investors reacted to the latest government curbs to reduce financial risks. It was down 0.9 percent on Friday.
“The progress of U.S. tax reform remains a key issue for markets, though that’s on hold until next week,” Sera added.
U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday promised “big, beautiful fat tax cuts” in his Thanksgiving message, though a majority of economists in a recent Reuters poll predicted U.S. Republicans are not expected to push the tax cuts through Congress this year.
Economists are also skeptical that the legislation would provide a significant boost to the economy.
The euro was steady at $1.1852, not far from last week's one-month high of $1.1862. For the week, it was up 0.5 percent.
The single currency got a boost from European business surveys, which pointed to a strengthening growth outlook for the region. Figures tracking both the services and manufacturing industries in Europe were better than expected.
Sterling edged down 0.1 percent to $1.3290, though it was 0.6 percent higher for the week and remained close to Thursday’s six-week high of $1.3337 ahead of a visit by British Prime Minister Theresa May to Brussels later on Friday for Brexit talks.
So, yesterday market didn't show any strong activity. Today, I think, we could take a look at NZD again. At least we still have our setup and now another attempt for short entry appears. First attempt was not successful, despite overall setup was not bad - we had "222" sell around hourly k-resistance area and WPP.
Now we have another chance. Recall, that we mostly expect here completion of large AB-CD pattern around 0.6745 and NZD should form last leg down to complete it:
Nowmarket finally has reached level that we've discussed in weekly research - this is 5/8 Fib resistance around WPR1. Also NZD doubles harmonic swing:
On hourly chart we have butterfly "sell" right at top:
Now there is no rush on decision making. You could wait a bit to get larger reversal pattern on hourly chart, also to get assurance that there will be no bullish grabber on 4-hour chart. And then, probably on next week, make final decision, if you're really watching for chances to trade kiwi...
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