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FOREX PRO Weekly November 21-25, 2011

Discussion in 'Sive Morten- Currencies and Gold Video Analysis' started by Sive Morten, Nov 19, 2011.

  1. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    Monthly
    Trend is bearish, currently we see that market is forming something like inside bar, and this is not a surprise, since previous month’s action was really tough. Based on our analysis and relation with dollar index, the most expectable action is move to 1.18 in nearest 6 month. Currently there are no patterns that could negate this assumption.

    Still, although long term bearish bias holds, investors will not be hurry up for two reasons – they need some more certainty with EU problems – Greece and mostly Italy, and because of the end of the year. IF you will take a look at other markets – stocks, bonds (except Italy of cause), you will see that all of them stand in some range From that perspective it is more probable that market will turn to some wide range trading in nearest couple of months. That’s why our analysis style till the end of the year mostly should be based on searching of clear patterns to trade – as in terms of entering the trade as in terms of taking profit. Obviously these patterns will be on lower time frames.
    On monthly chart we see that nearest downward target 1.2905 in Agreement with 1.3039 Fib support. Market is neither at oversold nor at overbought, trend is bearish – that is all that we need from monthly time frame currently.
    [​IMG]

    Weekly
    Weekly chart gives us very important signal – confirmed bearish trend. On previous week we’ve discussed what will prevail – bearish dynamic pressure or stop grabber. Now we clear see that bears were stronger. This price action gives us clue to further direction. We could count at least on reaching of previous lows around 1.3140 but more probable reaching of monthly Agreement area.
    Also, as you remember we’ve discussed H&S pattern on weekly chart. I do not have this chart currently; you may look at it in previous weekly research. This pattern is not perfect and has a lack of harmony – still, it has some chances to succeed. Left shoulder a bit greater than 1.618 to head, but this could be explained that market a bit exceeded to upside to reach 1.618 of AB-CD pattern. At the same time right shoulder currently stands precisely at 1.618 to the head that is quite common for H&S patterns. Head is a bit flat and wide, but this is not forbidden. From that perspective, minimum target of this pattern is 1.1950, standard target is around 1.13-1.14 – that is coincide with expectations due correlation with Dollar Index, that we’ve discussed two weeks ago.
    So, as monthly as weekly charts give us solid bearish context, so we have to search for sell opportunities on lower time frames.
    [​IMG]

    Daily
    Daily trend is bearish. As we’ve expected market has shown shallow retracement after completing of AB=CD pattern. Since all trends are bearish now and market not at oversold on any time frames – we can’t expect deeper retracement, especially if we take in consideration backward move on Friday from 1.36 level. This retracement was really choppy journey. Next potential target is area around 1.32-1.3240 – there are two different targets from different AB=CD patterns stand. On daily time frame there are no patterns and here we just can see that retracement has happened and probably market is ready for further move down. Let’s try to create a trading plan – how to join with this down move on Monday. Our focus time frames will be 4 hour and hourly ones.

    [​IMG]

    4-hour
    On Friday we’ve said that market is cunning, and failure breakouts are a common thing here, especially on intraday charts. So, that has happened – market has clear out previous highs around 1.3550 and accomplished our stop grabber pattern’s target that we’ve discussed on Thursday. Although trend is bullish, we see clear bearish engulfing pattern right at 50% retracement or, if you want – at K-resistance 1.3558-1.3587. This engulfing also could be treated as W*R and also as triangle breakout failure. This pattern gives us an advantage – we may use it to enter the trade and to place stop orders.
    [​IMG]

    Hourly
    Here is our trading plan for Monday. Trend is bearish. Market has accomplished nice 1.618 Crab, also here is 1.27 Butterfly “Sell”, we’ve discussed it on Friday – try to find it by yourself . So, we have clear bearish patterns – Engulfing and W&R on 4-hour, Crab “Sell” on hourly and bearish trend, what else do we need? Right – entry point. Here is our view. We have plunge of a second bar of bearish engulfing. Theoretically, we can place stop above the highs at 1.3614 – as it comes from classical approach to Crab and engulfing patterns. But take a look first and MACDP (red line). We see that trend will remain bearish only till 0.618 resistance from recent swing down. Also we can get “222” Sell pattern. First area that is suitable for enter short is Agreement at 1.3540, second is AB-CD completion point at 1.3553. Usually market does not show deep retracements at Crabs and engulfing patterns. But, as we already understand – anything could happen. That’s why minimum acceptable area to place stop order is above 1.618 extension 1.3581. Also because weekly pivot stands at 1.3576.

    Also I have to warn you. Although everything looks bearish and so on, but market has not hit 1.618 target on 4 hour time frame at 1.3630, and potentially market could deceive us again – it could form here another 1.27 Butterfly “Sell” just to punish the “wisest”. In this case, probably market will reach pivot or 1.618 target at 1.3581 and turn to some retracement down to complete second wing. This will allow you to place stop on breakeven, or exit without loss. Let’s say it as follows:
    - If market will show retracement to 1.3581 the probability of upward splash by butterfly or some other way increases;
    - If market will turn down and accelerate from 1.3540-1.3550 area – then, probably bearish patterns will work as we’ve just discussed.
    [​IMG]

    Conclusion:
    Long-term bias looks solidly bearish. On intraday charts market gives signs that upward retracement is over. Shallow retracement on hourly chart and completion of Gartley “222” Sell will give us more confidence that downward move will continue.
    If market will reach 1.618 target on hourly, then we must be careful because last upward jump will become more probable.


    The technical portion of Sive's analysis owes a great deal to Joe DiNapoli's methods, and uses a number of Joe's proprietary indicators. Please note that Sive's analysis is his own view of the market and is not endorsed by Joe DiNapoli or any related companies.
     
  2. asif faryad

    asif faryad Sergeant

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    Thanks Great Mentor

    Thanks Sive i love my Saturdays as after a swim and gym workout i read always your weekly plan for week ahead enjoying a coffee :)

    You have made a very consistent trader averaging 8% per month.

    I am looking forward to my holiday in December to take a break and reflect on the year.

    Thanks Sive you are so good at teaching and making us learn how to trade as professionals!!

    I wish you as always a great weekend:)))))
     
  3. Lolly Tripathy

    Lolly Tripathy Master Sergeant

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    Thank you so much..

    Thank you very much for the No.1 analysis
    your analysis is world's number ONE
    i always follow ur trading plan blindly..
    N always getting profit :)
    Thank you very very very much
    *GOD BLESS YOU*
     
  4. ameba

    ameba Recruit

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    Sive

    I had several online mentors on internet. Selections is over You are the one :)
    How long you plan to be with us?
    Do not leave too early your chicks, before they were able to fly independently.

    Regards
    Dawid
     
  5. Paul McConnell

    Paul McConnell Private, 1st Class

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    Of course Sive..

    Of course, Sive Is a Trading rock star and moreover a real gentleman...
    Nonetheless its very worrying if people (can't call them traders) month after month after month blindly follow him and don't ever want to assume responsibility for their trades... I promise you, as sure as the Sun shines, one day Sive will go surfing and where will you be?
    I learned first by carefully watching Sive and then by formulating my own strategies based on price action and confirming my analysis with Sive's analysis and now I am back here for the first time in months for only nostalgic reasons.
    This independent trading I believe is what Sive in his precise and painstaking way wants to teach us and is the outcome that he wishes for all of us and for his care and guidance I am beholden..
    Bonsoir,
    Paul
     
  6. jpocalles

    jpocalles Recruit

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    Hello,

    I´m new on this forum , what is the indicator of the red line at weekly and hourly charts ?

    Thanks in advance

    Joe
     
  7. Jyotiprakash Pal

    Jyotiprakash Pal Sergeant

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    right sir
    FPA and Sive sir did everything they can
    Opened : Forex Military School | Complete Forex Education by a Pro Banker - Forex Peace Army Forum Sergey sir did an excellent job with cartoons.even a 7 year old kid will enjoy the complicated forex lesson.a person .. giving his 100% trying 2 teach them.showing every single thing.how to make a plan.how to trade a plan.frm his busy schedule.. arrhhhhh if anyone treating this stuff's as signal only,then god save him
     
  8. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    Hi Joe,

    Red line is DiNapoli MACD Predictor. This is derrivative indicator from simple MACD. Instead of two lines it uses single line and price. IF we will not take in consideration some specific signals and patterns that it could generate - it shows trend as MACD.
     
  9. Jyotiprakash Pal

    Jyotiprakash Pal Sergeant

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    Think market will retrace towards 1.3470 for adding more lots :D thanks sive sir
     

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  10. Jyotiprakash Pal

    Jyotiprakash Pal Sergeant

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    Market retraced as we talk earlier .. Entry done again ..after retracement 1.3480 stoploss on 1.3535 ..tp same 1.3375 this one classy ... 2b pattern Yeah yeah ... :D thanks Sive sir
     

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